War Balance

Trade with Russia: who raised and who cut Russia's earnings since 2022

For every country, how much more or less Russia kept from trade with it (taxes and profit above a normal return, not the full sales value) than in a world without the war: oil, gas, coal, goods, services and shipping.

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The ranking measures money: aid to Ukraine and the change in what Russia keeps from trade, against a world without the war. Weapons count at their money value: aid at market value when delivered, weapons and troops sent to Russia at the seller's gain where Russia paid and in full where it did not. Votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.

The chance of the direction comes from simulating every part's likely range together, correlated where parts share inputs. Very likely: at least 95%, every other method choice agrees and the likely range stays on that side. Likely: at least 65%. Too close to call: below that. Near zero: the likely range and the method band stay within ±0.5% of a year's GDP. Essentially zero: not very likely and the middle value is under 0.1% of a year's GDP, or the whole likely range is. Direction words follow the middle value; where the simulations lean the other way, it says so.

Russia kept more, in euros

#Country€% of GDP
1China€128bn−0.74%
2India€70.5bn−2.2%
3Türkiye€32.8bn−3.1%
4Hungary€12.3bn−6.4%
5Brazil€10.1bn−0.51%
6Hong Kong€5.7bn−1.6%
7Uzbekistan€4.1bn−4.1%
8Saudi Arabia€3.9bn−0.33%
9United Arab Emirates€3.6bn−0.72%
10Libya€2.8bn−6.6%

Russia kept less, in euros

#Country€% of GDP
1Germany€72.6bn+1.7%
2United States€47.4bn+0.18%
3United Kingdom€34.9bn+1.1%
4Netherlands€30.2bn+2.9%
5Poland€22.8bn+3.0%
6France€20.2bn+0.72%
7Italy€18.8bn+0.89%
8Finland€17.4bn+6.4%
9South Korea€17.2bn+1.0%
10Sweden€10.6bn+1.9%

As a share of GDP

Toward Ukraine · 21

  1. 1.Lithuania+10.1%+€7.4bn
  2. 2.Estonia+8.2%+€3.1bn
  3. 3.Finland+6.4%+€17.4bn
  4. 4.Moldova+6.3%+€967m
  5. 5.Latvia+3.5%+€1.4bn
  6. 6.Poland+3.0%+€22.8bn
  7. 7.Netherlands+2.9%+€30.2bn
  8. 8.Romania+2.1%+€6.7bn
  9. 9.Sweden+1.9%+€10.6bn
  10. 10.Germany+1.7%+€72.6bn
  11. 11.Cyprus+1.7%+€540m
  12. 12.United Kingdom+1.1%+€34.9bn
  13. 13.South Korea+1.0%+€17.2bn
  14. 14.Denmark+0.98%+€3.7bn
  15. 15.Luxembourg+0.86%+€701m
  16. 16.Portugal+0.68%+€1.8bn
  17. 17.Nigeria+0.43%+€1.9bn
  18. 18.Norway+0.40%+€2.0bn
  19. 19.Ireland+0.25%+€1.4bn
  20. 20.United States+0.18%+€47.4bn
  21. 21.Canada+0.08%+€1.7bn

Leaning toward Ukraine · 23

  1. Brunei+3.1%+€453m · likely toward Ukraine · 85%
  2. Lebanon+2.6%+€538m · likely toward Ukraine · 82%
  3. Bulgaria+2.5%+€2.4bn · likely toward Ukraine · 87%
  4. Turkmenistan+1.5%+€578m · likely toward Ukraine · 84%
  5. Czechia+1.2%+€3.6bn · likely toward Ukraine · 81%
  6. Kosovo+1.1%+€107m · likely toward Ukraine · 92%
  7. Cameroon+1.0%+€456m · likely toward Ukraine · 94%
  8. Italy+0.89%+€18.8bn · likely toward Ukraine · 91%
  9. France+0.72%+€20.2bn · likely toward Ukraine · 94%
  10. Belgium+0.62%+€3.7bn · likely toward Ukraine · 79%
  11. Malta+0.58%+€121m · likely toward Ukraine · 77%
  12. Croatia+0.56%+€438m · likely toward Ukraine · 85%
  13. Rwanda+0.56%+€75m · likely toward Ukraine · 91%
  14. Bosnia and Herzegovina+0.55%+€140m · likely toward Ukraine · 85%
  15. Bolivia+0.44%+€218m · likely toward Ukraine · 82%
  16. Spain+0.42%+€6.2bn · likely toward Ukraine · 89%
  17. Cuba+0.37%+€78m · likely toward Ukraine · 65%
  18. Ecuador+0.37%+€411m · likely toward Ukraine · 89%
  19. Iceland+0.28%+€83m · likely toward Ukraine · 88%
  20. Angola+0.25%+€263m · likely toward Ukraine · 92%
  21. Honduras+0.24%+€77m · likely toward Ukraine · 73%
  22. Colombia+0.15%+€526m · likely toward Ukraine · 94%
  23. Laos+0.14%+€21m · likely toward Ukraine · 90%

Near zero · 3

  1. Japan+0.16%+€6.5bn · near zero · 94% toward Ukraine
  2. Dominican Republic+0.14%+€158m · near zero · 89% toward Ukraine
  3. Venezuela−0.12%−€118m · near zero · 75% toward Russia

Essentially zero · 46

  1. Gabon+0.09%+€18m · essentially zero
  2. Panama+0.08%+€63m · essentially zero
  3. Thailand+0.08%+€382m · essentially zero
  4. Peru+0.08%+€191m · essentially zero
  5. Mali+0.07%+€16m · essentially zero
  6. Trinidad and Tobago+0.07%+€16m · essentially zero
  7. Taiwan+0.06%+€461m · essentially zero
  8. Costa Rica+0.06%+€50m · essentially zero
  9. Argentina+0.05%+€300m · essentially zero
  10. Philippines+0.05%+€186m · essentially zero
  11. El Salvador+0.04%+€11m · essentially zero
  12. Ethiopia+0.04%+€46m · essentially zero
  13. Chile+0.03%+€102m · essentially zero
  14. Madagascar+0.03%+€4m · essentially zero
  15. Mexico+0.02%+€387m · essentially zero
  16. Montenegro+0.02%+€2m · essentially zero
  17. Guatemala+0.02%+€18m · essentially zero
  18. Kazakhstan+0.01%+€35m · essentially zero
  19. French Polynesia+<0.01%+<€1m · essentially zero
  20. New Zealand−<0.01%−€1m · essentially zero
  21. Algeria−<0.01%−€3m · essentially zero
  22. Guyana−<0.01%−<€1m · essentially zero
  23. Bermuda−<0.01%−<€1m · essentially zero
  24. Kuwait−<0.01%−€6m · essentially zero
  25. Niger−<0.01%−€1m · essentially zero
  26. Bangladesh−0.01%−€53m · essentially zero
  27. Bahrain−0.02%−€7m · essentially zero
  28. Nicaragua−0.02%−€3m · essentially zero
  29. Albania−0.02%−€4m · essentially zero
  30. Cayman Islands−0.02%−€2m · essentially zero
  31. Malawi−0.03%−€3m · essentially zero
  32. Israel−0.03%−€138m · essentially zero
  33. Vietnam−0.03%−€130m · essentially zero
  34. Qatar−0.04%−€88m · essentially zero
  35. Zimbabwe−0.05%−€17m · essentially zero
  36. Zambia−0.05%−€12m · essentially zero
  37. Myanmar−0.05%−€31m · essentially zero
  38. Pakistan−0.05%−€172m · essentially zero
  39. Mauritania−0.06%−€6m · essentially zero
  40. Macao−0.06%−€24m · essentially zero
  41. Uganda−0.07%−€30m · essentially zero
  42. Botswana−0.07%−€12m · essentially zero
  43. Uruguay−0.07%−€51m · essentially zero
  44. Cambodia−0.08%−€31m · essentially zero
  45. DR Congo−0.09%−€63m · essentially zero
  46. Bahamas−0.10%−€13m · essentially zero

Too close to call · 11

  1. Congo+0.13%+€19m · too close to call · 55% toward Ukraine
  2. Palestine+0.12%+€19m · too close to call · 64% toward Ukraine
  3. Morocco−0.10%−€142m · too close to call · 57% toward Russia
  4. Paraguay−0.12%−€50m · too close to call · 55% toward Russia
  5. Sudan−0.20%−€88m · too close to call · 53% toward Russia
  6. Slovenia−0.25%−€154m · too close to call · 58% toward Russia
  7. Benin−0.35%−€64m · too close to call · 56% toward Russia
  8. Tajikistan−0.39%−€46m · too close to call · 58% toward Russia
  9. Togo−0.46%−€41m · too close to call: the middle value is toward Russia, but the simulations lean slightly toward Ukraine (51%)
  10. Slovakia−0.75%−€912m · too close to call · 58% toward Russia
  11. Syria−1.0%−€204m · too close to call · 64% toward Russia

Leaning toward Russia · 17

  1. Armenia−0.15%−€34m · likely toward Russia · 69%
  2. Switzerland−0.18%−€1.6bn · likely toward Russia · 86%
  3. Iraq−0.20%−€511m · likely toward Russia · 94%
  4. Kenya−0.30%−€323m · likely toward Russia · 89%
  5. Singapore−0.44%−€2.2bn · likely toward Russia · 78%
  6. Austria−0.51%−€2.4bn · likely toward Russia · 67%
  7. Greece−0.70%−€1.6bn · likely toward Russia · 69%
  8. United Arab Emirates−0.72%−€3.6bn · likely toward Russia · 97%
  9. Namibia−0.83%−€100m · likely toward Russia · 77%
  10. Mozambique−0.84%−€164m · likely toward Russia · 68%
  11. Serbia−1.4%−€1.1bn · likely toward Russia · 83%
  12. Hong Kong−1.6%−€5.7bn · likely toward Russia · 97%
  13. Senegal−2.1%−€598m · likely toward Russia · 76%
  14. North Macedonia−2.5%−€359m · likely toward Russia · 91%
  15. Burkina Faso−3.9%−€749m · likely toward Russia · 92%
  16. Georgia−4.1%−€1.2bn · likely toward Russia · 86%
  17. Mongolia−6.4%−€1.2bn · likely toward Russia · 77%

Toward Russia · 33

Numbered from the Russia end: number 1 is furthest that way.

  1. 1.Kyrgyzstan−10.0%−€1.4bn
  2. 2.Libya−6.6%−€2.8bn
  3. 3.Hungary−6.4%−€12.3bn
  4. 4.Yemen−5.2%−€459m
  5. 5.Tunisia−4.6%−€2.1bn
  6. 6.Uzbekistan−4.1%−€4.1bn
  7. 7.Türkiye−3.1%−€32.8bn
  8. 8.Azerbaijan−2.5%−€1.8bn
  9. 9.Nepal−2.4%−€952m
  10. 10.India−2.2%−€70.5bn
  11. 11.Afghanistan−1.5%−€236m
  12. 12.Oman−1.4%−€1.4bn
  13. 13.Tanzania−1.1%−€816m
  14. 14.Ghana−0.90%−€664m
  15. 15.Sri Lanka−0.86%−€690m
  16. 16.Mauritius−0.86%−€112m
  17. 17.China−0.74%−€128bn
  18. 18.Côte d'Ivoire−0.70%−€522m
  19. 19.Malaysia−0.65%−€2.5bn
  20. 20.Brazil−0.51%−€10.1bn
  21. 21.South Africa−0.49%−€1.8bn
  22. 22.Jamaica−0.49%−€94m
  23. 23.Egypt−0.45%−€1.8bn
  24. 24.Iran−0.44%−€1.9bn
  25. 25.Maldives−0.41%−€25m
  26. 26.Fiji−0.35%−€18m
  27. 27.Jordan−0.34%−€178m
  28. 28.Saudi Arabia−0.33%−€3.9bn
  29. 29.Indonesia−0.20%−€2.5bn
  30. 30.Sierra Leone−0.13%−€8m
  31. 31.Australia−0.12%−€1.9bn
  32. 32.Barbados−0.09%−€6m
  33. 33.Papua New Guinea−0.08%−€22m

Economies with a GDP under €5bn

The map's ranking leaves them out by default (Filters › Size), because small amounts swing their shares widely. Each with its group.

  1. Greenland+1.5%+€46m · Leaning toward Ukraine · likely toward Ukraine · 67%
  2. Liberia+0.64%+€26m · Leaning toward Ukraine · likely toward Ukraine · 86%
  3. Burundi+0.29%+€10m · Leaning toward Ukraine · likely toward Ukraine · 73%
  4. Suriname+0.22%+€8m · Leaning toward Ukraine · likely toward Ukraine · 92%
  5. Belize−0.13%−€4m · Near zero · near zero · 83% toward Russia
  6. Eswatini+0.01%+€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  7. Lesotho+0.01%+<€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  8. Grenada+<0.01%+<€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  9. Andorra+<0.01%+<€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  10. Timor-Leste+<0.01%+<€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  11. Curaçao−0.03%−€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  12. Dominica−0.06%−<€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  13. Gibraltar+0.42%+€15m · Too close to call · too close to call · 56% toward Ukraine
  14. Faroe Islands+0.29%+€10m · Too close to call · too close to call · 56% toward Ukraine
  15. Anguilla−0.12%−€1m · Too close to call · too close to call · 59% toward Russia
  16. Cabo Verde−0.17%−€4m · Too close to call · too close to call · 55% toward Russia
  17. Eritrea−0.26%−€5m · Too close to call · too close to call · 62% toward Russia
  18. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines−0.41%−€4m · Too close to call · too close to call · 61% toward Russia
  19. Saint Kitts and Nevis−0.56%−€5m · Too close to call · too close to call · 61% toward Russia
  20. Seychelles−0.23%−€4m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 76%
  21. Antigua and Barbuda−0.28%−€5m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 89%
  22. Sao Tome and Principe−0.29%−€2m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 71%
  23. Marshall Islands−0.90%−€2m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 83%
  24. Gambia−1.5%−€33m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 88%
  25. Djibouti−1.6%−€58m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 88%
  26. Central African Republic−4.8%−€116m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 92%
  27. Kiribati−0.12%−<€1m · Toward Russia
  28. Nauru−0.19%−<€1m · Toward Russia
  29. Solomon Islands−0.27%−€4m · Toward Russia
  30. Samoa−0.28%−€3m · Toward Russia
  31. Tonga−0.31%−€2m · Toward Russia
  32. Comoros−0.48%−€7m · Toward Russia
  33. Niue−0.67%−<€1m · Toward Russia
  34. Vanuatu−0.74%−€8m · Toward Russia
  35. Cook Islands−0.84%−€3m · Toward Russia
  36. Palau−2.4%−€6m · Toward Russia
  37. Bhutan−2.5%−€71m · Toward Russia
  38. Tuvalu−3.0%−€1m · Toward Russia

Party to the war (with Russia), not ranked

No data

No observation of their own for the war years: nothing is counted and they are not ranked.

Montserrat, Saint Barthélemy, Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Falkland Islands, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, French Southern Territories, Guam, Vatican City, Bonaire, Norfolk Island, Northern Mariana Islands, Micronesia, Pitcairn, Saint Helena, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Western Sahara, Tokelau, Wallis and Futuna, American Samoa, British Indian Ocean Territory, Haiti, Saint Lucia, Sint Maarten, Aruba, Chad, South Sudan, Turks and Caicos Islands, San Marino, British Virgin Islands, Equatorial Guinea, New Caledonia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Somalia

Ranking · Support for Ukraine by country · Trade with Russia by country · How it works

Topics

Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/trade-with-russia/