{"generated":"2026-10-29","data_to":"2026-08-31","years":[2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026],"frac":[1,1,1,1,1,0.6667],"meta":{"tariff_rate":0.002,"lost_margin":0.2,"refugee_common_cost_eur_per_person_year":{"2022":7162,"2023":5574,"2024":4398,"2025":3695,"2026":3304}},"status_html":"<b>Research preview</b> \u00b7 figures to 31 August 2026, updated 29 October 2026. Compiled with AI assistance from public sources. Every number has a likely range and sources; gaps are filled with estimates, never left at zero. Every choice and its evidence: <a href=\"#view=how&sec=changelog\">changelog</a>. Method and data: <a href=\"https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance\">GitHub</a>. Corrections: <a href=\"https://www.reddit.com/user/Intelligent-Cream-14/\">Reddit</a> or a GitHub issue. Not connected to Follow the Money (ftm.nl), whose name the project used in its first week.","sources":{"trade":{"name":"UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2023&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=TOTAL&flowCode=M","date":"2026-10-17","note":"own reports first, then partner (mirror) reports, IMF and estimates; 2026 is January to August","links":[{"title":"UN Comtrade API: all reporters' imports from Russia (partner 643), HS TOTAL, 2024","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: all reporters' exports to Russia (partner 643), HS TOTAL, 2024","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=X&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: all reporters' imports from Ukraine (partner 804), HS TOTAL, 2024","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=804&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: all reporters' exports to Ukraine (partner 804), HS TOTAL, 2024","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=804&flowCode=X&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0","kind":"primary"},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: Ukraine's own report by partner (mirror fallback), imports 2024","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=804&period=2024&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0","kind":"primary"},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: Russia's own 2021 report by partner (mirror fallback), exports","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=643&period=2021&flowCode=X&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0","kind":"primary"},{"title":"ECB Data Portal: USD/EUR annual average exchange rate (EXR.A.USD.EUR.SP00.A)","url":"https://data-api.ecb.europa.eu/service/data/EXR/A.USD.EUR.SP00.A?startPeriod=2021&format=csvdata","kind":"primary"},{"title":"UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2023&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=TOTAL&flowCode=M","kind":"primary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"eaeu_r44":{"name":"EAEU members' own statistics of trade with Russia: Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, Armstat; EEC member-pair tables 2015-2021","url":"https://stat.gov.kg/ru/publications/vzaimnaya-torgovlya-tovarami-kyrgyzskoj-respubliki-s-gosudarstvami-chlenami-evrazijskogo-ekonomicheskogo-soyuza/","date":"2026-10-25","note":"Kyrgyzstan 2020 and 2024 to August 2026 (refined totals), Armenia January-August 2026; see research/2026-10/gaps/eaeu_r44-notes.md","links":[{"title":"National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic: mutual trade in goods with EAEU member states","url":"https://stat.gov.kg/ru/publications/vzaimnaya-torgovlya-tovarami-kyrgyzskoj-respubliki-s-gosudarstvami-chlenami-evrazijskogo-ekonomicheskogo-soyuza/","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Armstat: foreign trade by country (Russia)","url":"https://www.armstat.am/ru/?nid=159","kind":"primary","key":true}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"hk_csd_r44":{"name":"C&SD Trade-IDDS, Hong Kong imports of HS 7108 by origin, downloaded by the owner 2026-10-25","url":"https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/raw/hk_tradeidds_r44/imports_origin_RUS_7108_monthly_2018-2026.csv","date":"2026-10-25","note":"Russian-origin gold, January-August 2026, measured; the non-gold remainder estimated; see research/2026-10/gaps/hk_csd_r44-notes.md","links":[{"title":"C&SD Trade-IDDS: Hong Kong imports of gold (HS 7108) of Russian origin, monthly 2018-2026, HK$ '000 (the owner's download)","url":"https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/raw/hk_tradeidds_r44/imports_origin_RUS_7108_monthly_2018-2026.csv","kind":"primary","key":true}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"nonreport":{"name":"Trade with Russia for partners that do not report (Cuba, Venezuela, Syria, Libya, Iran...): tanker tracking, official statements","date":"2026-10-17","note":"Russian supplies given on credit or as aid are Russian support, not money to Russia: only the paid share counts","links":[{"title":"CREA Russia Fossil Tracker API: Russian fossil-fuel exports by destination","url":"https://api.russiafossiltracker.com/v0/counter?format=csv&date_from=2021-01-01&date_to=2026-10-17&aggregate_by=year,destination_iso2,destination_country,commodity_group&commodity_grouping=split_gas_oil&currency=EUR","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Turkmenistan state oil and gas portal: trade turnover with Russia up 13% in 2023","url":"https://oilgas.gov.tm/en/posts/news/10897/trade-turnover-between-turkmenistan-and-russia-increased-by-13-in-2023","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"TASS: Russia-Iran trade figures","url":"https://tass.com/economy/1949413","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Interfax: Russia-Cuba trade","url":"https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/91271/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Interfax: Russia-Tajikistan trade","url":"https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/114209/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"NK News: Russia-North Korea trade hit record USD 34m in 2024 (official)","url":"https://www.nknews.org/2025/06/russia-north-korea-trade-hit-record-34m-in-2024-on-food-and-fuel-official","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"report","url":"https://api.russiafossiltracker.com/v0/counter?format=csv&date_from=2021-01-01&date_to=2026-10-17&aggregate_by=year,destination_iso2,destination_country,commodity_group&commodity_grouping=split_gas_oil&currency=EUR","date_kind":"checked"},"kiel":{"name":"Kiel Institute, Ukraine Support Tracker Release 31 (published 8 Oct 2026)","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/bc5059ba-ef38-4f08-988a-746a03905a6c-Ukraine_Support_Tracker__Release_31.xlsx","date":"2026-08-31","links":[{"title":"Kiel Institute, Ukraine Support Tracker Release 31 workbook (xlsx)","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/bc5059ba-ef38-4f08-988a-746a03905a6c-Ukraine_Support_Tracker__Release_31.xlsx","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Kiel Institute, Ukraine Support Tracker page","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/research/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Kiel Policy Brief 217: How much aid has Germany given to Ukraine?","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/how-much-aid-has-germany-given-to-ukraine-20290/","kind":"primary","key":true}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"kiel_eu_share":{"name":"EU-level aid split over member states by their contribution to the EU budget (Kiel method)","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/bc5059ba-ef38-4f08-988a-746a03905a6c-Ukraine_Support_Tracker__Release_31.xlsx","date":"2026-08-31","links":[{"title":"Kiel Institute, Ukraine Support Tracker Release 31 workbook (xlsx)","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/bc5059ba-ef38-4f08-988a-746a03905a6c-Ukraine_Support_Tracker__Release_31.xlsx","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Kiel Working Paper 2218, The Ukraine Support Tracker: which countries help Ukraine and how?","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/the-ukraine-support-tracker-which-countries-help-ukraine-and-how-20852/","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Method: EU-level aid","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-aid-refugees-military-eu-level-aid","kind":"method"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"published"},"aid_gaps":{"name":"Aid from countries outside the Kiel tracker: UN OCHA Financial Tracking Service and government reports","url":"https://fts.unocha.org/countries/234/summary/2026","date":"2026-10-17","note":"countries with no record: 0, with a small upper bound based on what similar donors gave","links":[{"title":"UN OCHA FTS API: all funding flows to Ukraine, 2022","url":"https://api.hpc.tools/v1/public/fts/flow?countryISO3=UKR&year=2022","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Qatar MoFA: Qatar pledges USD 100 million for humanitarian assistance to Ukraine","url":"https://mofa.gov.qa/en/qatar/latest-articles/latest-news/details/1445/01/10/qatar-pledges-usd-100-million-for-humanitarian-assistance-to-ukraine","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UAE MoFA: relief flight to Ukraine","url":"https://www.mofa.gov.ae/en/mediahub/news/2024/2/13/13-2-2024-uae-ukrain","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Interfax: UAE allots USD 100 million for humanitarian aid to Ukraine","url":"https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/84198/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Singapore MFA: contribution to Ukraine (28 Feb 2022)","url":"https://www.mfa.gov.sg/Newsroom/Press-Statements-Transcripts-and-Photos/2022/02/20220228-contribution-to-Ukraine","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Aid from countries outside the Kiel tracker: UN OCHA Financial Tracking Service and government reports","url":"https://fts.unocha.org/countries/234/summary/2026","kind":"primary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"refugees":{"name":"Refugee hosting cost: national budget figures where reported, otherwise refugees hosted per year x cost per refugee calibrated on those budgets","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/migr_asytpsm/default/table","date":"2026-10-17","note":"Eurostat and UNHCR counts, US and Canadian programme arrivals; see research/2026-10/gaps/refugees-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Eurostat migr_asytpsm: beneficiaries of temporary protection, Ukrainian citizens (API query)","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/migr_asytpsm?citizen=UA&sex=T&age=TOTAL&unit=PER","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UNHCR Refugee Data Finder API: Ukrainian refugees by host country, end-2025","url":"https://api.unhcr.org/population/v1/population/?year=2025&coo=UKR&coa_all=true","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"EPRS briefing 775834 (Kiel estimate of EU member-state refugee spending)","url":"https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2025/775834/EPRS_BRI(2025)775834_EN.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Bundestag Drucksache 20/13346","url":"https://dserver.bundestag.de/btd/20/133/2013346.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Rijksfinancien: Jaarverslag JenV 2024 (art. 37 reception)","url":"https://www.rijksfinancien.nl/jaarverslag/2024/VI","kind":"primary"},{"title":"NIK audit: actions to help Ukrainian citizens","url":"https://www.nik.gov.pl/najnowsze-informacje-o-wynikach-kontroli/dzialania-na-rzecz-pomocy-obywatelom-ukrainy.html","kind":"primary"},{"title":"NAO: Investigation into the Homes for Ukraine scheme","url":"https://www.nao.org.uk/press-releases/investigation-into-homes-for-ukraine/","kind":"primary"},{"title":"SEM: Fachbericht Programm S 2024","url":"https://www.sem.admin.ch/dam/sem/de/data/integration/foerderung/programm-s/rapport-programm-s-2024.pdf.download.pdf/rapport-programm-s-2024-d.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Refugee hosting cost: national budget figures where reported, otherwise refugees hosted per year x cost per refugee calibrated on those budgets","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/migr_asytpsm/default/table","kind":"primary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"energy":{"name":"Energy switching cost, oil discounts and laundered oil: modelled per fuel from CREA, Eurostat, Comtrade and market prices","url":"https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/methodology/","date":"2026-10-17","note":"see research/2026-10/gaps/energy-notes.md","links":[{"title":"CREA Russia Fossil Tracker API: monthly exports by destination and commodity (EUR, USD)","url":"https://api.russiafossiltracker.com/v0/counter?format=csv&date_from=2021-01-01&date_to=2026-08-31&aggregate_by=month,destination_iso2,destination_country,commodity&currency=EUR,USD","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"CREA Russia Fossil Tracker API: modelled Russian export prices","url":"https://api.russiafossiltracker.com/v0/price?format=csv&date_from=2021-01-01&date_to=2026-08-31&scenario=default","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"FRED: Brent crude price (DCOILBRENTEU)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Eurostat nrg_ti_gas API: EU27 gas imports from Russia and total (TJ GCV)","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/nrg_ti_gas?format=JSON&geo=EU27_2020&partner=RU&partner=TOTAL&siec=G3000&unit=TJ_GCV","kind":"primary"},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: imports of crude oil (HS 2709) from Russia, 2023","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2023&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=2709","kind":"primary"},{"title":"CREA: Four years of invasion (24 Feb 2026)","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/CREA_RU_Analysis_Four-years-of-invasion_24.02.2026.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"CREA: Third year of invasion (revised 10 Apr 2025)","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/CREA_Analysis_Third-year-of-invasion_24.02.2025_REVISED_10.04.2025.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"CREA Russia Fossil Tracker methodology","url":"https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/methodology/","kind":"primary"}],"type":"ours","date_kind":"checked"},"transit_gas":{"name":"Russian gas by country of final use (Eurostat imports by origin, ENTSOG flows, CREA), passed on from transit countries","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_ti_gas/default/table","date":"2026-10-17","note":"replaces the gas in customs data (UN Comtrade HS 2711, research/2026-10/gaps/customs_gas.json) and in the fossil fuel tracker; see energy2-notes.md; Austria, Switzerland and Hungary 2024 are estimates","links":[{"title":"Eurostat nrg_ti_gas: imports of natural gas by partner (table view)","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_ti_gas/default/table","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Eurostat nrg_ti_gasm API: monthly gas imports from Russia (million m3)","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/nrg_ti_gasm?format=JSON&partner=RU&siec=G3000&unit=MIO_M3","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Eurostat nrg_te_gas API: gas exports by partner","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/nrg_te_gas","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Eurostat nrg_cb_gas API: gas supply balance","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/nrg_cb_gas","kind":"primary"},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: imports of HS 2711 (gas) from Russia","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=2711,271111,271121","kind":"primary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"entsog_r43":{"name":"ENTSOG Transparency Platform: metered physical gas flows at the TurkStream, Balkan and Central European border points, 2021-11 to 2026-08","url":"https://transparency.entsog.eu/api/v1/operationalData","date":"2026-10-24","note":"a second, independent measurement of volume (no origin); see research/2026-10/gaps/entsog_r43-notes.md","type":"data","links":[{"title":"ENTSOG Transparency Platform: metered physical gas flows at the TurkStream, Balkan and Central European border points, 2021-11 to 2026-08","url":"https://transparency.entsog.eu/api/v1/operationalData","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"data"},"laundered":{"name":"Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it","url":"https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/methodology/","date":"2026-10","note":"hub resale shares are estimates; hub customers from UN Comtrade HS 2710 exports 2024; crude share of the fuel value per refiner and year (crude_content.json)","links":[{"title":"CREA: Refined oil analysis, price-cap coalition imports of products from Russian crude (Feb 2024, rev. Apr 2024)","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA_PCC_Refined-Oil-Analysis_19.02.2024_Rev_15.04.2024.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"CREA: Four years of invasion (24 Feb 2026)","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/CREA_RU_Analysis_Four-years-of-invasion_24.02.2026.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"CREA: The Laundromat (Apr 2023)","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/CREA_The-Laundromat_How-the-price-cap-coalition-whitewashes-Russian-oil-in-third-countries.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: India's exports of refined products (HS 2710), 2024","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=699&period=2024&flowCode=X&cmdCode=2710","kind":"primary"},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: Turkey's exports of HS 2710, 2022-2025","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=792&cmdCode=2710&flowCode=X&period=2024","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Global Witness: EU purchases of laundered Russian oil worth an estimated EUR 1.1bn to the Kremlin in 2023","url":"https://globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-fuels/eu-purchases-of-laundered-russian-oil-worth-an-estimated-11-billion-to-the-kremlin-in-2023/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Method: Laundered oil","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-energy-and-laundered-oil-laundered-oil","kind":"method"},{"title":"Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it","url":"https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/methodology/","kind":"primary"}],"type":"ours","date_kind":"checked"},"laundered_eu":{"name":"Fuel made from Russian crude per EU member: Eurostat Comext HS 2710 imports by origin, refinery Russian-crude shares, CREA per-country checks","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/comext/newxtweb/","date":"2026-10-18","note":"final consumer after Dutch and Belgian resale; see research/2026-10/gaps/laundered_eu-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Eurostat Comext DS-045409 API (EU trade by HS, partner, reporter)","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=A&reporter=DE&partner=IN&product=2710&flow=1&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&time=2024","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"CREA: Refined oil analysis (Feb 2024, rev. Apr 2024)","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA_PCC_Refined-Oil-Analysis_19.02.2024_Rev_15.04.2024.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"CREA/CSD: Turkish refineries analysis (Sep 2024)","url":"https://csd.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/publications_library/files/2024_9/FINAL_CREA_CSD_Analysis_Turkish-Refineries_09.2024.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"KSE Institute: the refining loophole (June 2026)","url":"https://institute.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/kse_refining_loophole_eng_june_2026.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"CREA: Four years of invasion (24 Feb 2026)","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/CREA_RU_Analysis_Four-years-of-invasion_24.02.2026.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Global Witness: EU purchases of laundered Russian oil (2023)","url":"https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-gas/eu-purchases-of-laundered-russian-oil-worth-an-estimated-11-billion-to-the-kremlin-in-2023/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Fuel made from Russian crude per EU member: Eurostat Comext HS 2710 imports by origin, refinery Russian-crude shares, CREA per-country checks","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/comext/newxtweb/","kind":"primary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"laundered_r6":{"name":"Brunei's Hengyi refinery and Turkish ports relabelling Russian fuel: CREA, CSD, Eurostat Comext, UN Comtrade, Kpler-based reporting","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/CREA_CSD_A-Kremlin-pit-stop_The-EU-imported-EUR-3-bn-of-oil-products-from-Turkish-ports-handling-Russian-oil.pdf","date":"2026-10-18","note":"see research/2026-10/gaps/laundered_r6-notes.md","links":[{"title":"CREA/CSD: A Kremlin pit stop - EU imported EUR 3bn of oil products from Turkish ports handling Russian oil","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/CREA_CSD_A-Kremlin-pit-stop_The-EU-imported-EUR-3-bn-of-oil-products-from-Turkish-ports-handling-Russian-oil.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"CREA/CSD: Turkish refineries analysis (Sep 2024)","url":"https://csd.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/publications_library/files/2024_9/FINAL_CREA_CSD_Analysis_Turkish-Refineries_09.2024.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"CREA Russia Fossil Tracker API: Russian exports to Brunei by commodity and month","url":"https://api.russiafossiltracker.com/v0/counter?destination_iso2=BN&aggregate_by=destination_iso2,commodity,month","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: Brunei's exports of HS 2710","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=96&cmdCode=2710&flowCode=X&period=2024","kind":"primary"},{"title":"CREA: August 2026 monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/august-2026-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/","kind":"primary"},{"title":"KSE Institute: the refining loophole (June 2026)","url":"https://institute.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/kse_refining_loophole_eng_june_2026.pdf","kind":"primary"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"refining":{"name":"Russian crude refined in Turkey and India and exported as fuel: refinery reports, UN Comtrade, CREA, Global Witness","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=792&cmdCode=2710&flowCode=X&period=2024","date":"2026-10-18","note":"the exported part is counted at the buyers as laundered oil; see research/2026-10/gaps/hub_buyers-notes.md","links":[{"title":"UN Comtrade API: Turkey's exports of HS 2710, 2022-2025","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=792&cmdCode=2710&flowCode=X&period=2024","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: India's exports of HS 2710, 2022-2025","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=699&cmdCode=2710&flowCode=X&period=2024","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"T\u00fcpra\u015f Q4 2024 results webcast presentation","url":"https://www.tupras.com.tr/assets/uploads/investor-relations/presentation/tupras-q424-results-webcast-presentation.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"CREA/CSD: A Kremlin pit stop (Turkish ports)","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CREA_CSD_A-Kremlin-pit-stop_The-EU-imported-EUR-3-bn-of-oil-products-from-Turkish-ports-handling-Russian-oil_Final.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"CREA: Refined oil analysis (Feb 2024, rev. Apr 2024)","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA_PCC_Refined-Oil-Analysis_19.02.2024_Rev_15.04.2024.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Global Witness: Shell and Vitol bring Russian-origin diesel into Europe","url":"https://globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-fuels/shell-vitol-bring-russian-origin-diesel-into-europe-despite-swearing-off-russian-oil/","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"eu_refiners":{"name":"EU refiners' fuel exports made from Russian crude: refinery export shares, CREA tracker crude volumes, each refiner's UN Comtrade HS 2710 exports by partner (2021)","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=440&period=2021&cmdCode=2710&flowCode=X","date":"2026-10-19","note":"the Russian crude in exported fuel is charged to the buyers, as for India and T\u00fcrkiye; see How it works","links":[{"title":"UN Comtrade: Lithuania's HS 2710 exports by partner, 2021 (one of 16 refiners' queries; raw/comtrade_2710)","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=440&period=2021&cmdCode=2710&flowCode=X","kind":"primary","key":true}],"type":"ours","date_kind":"checked"},"laundered_r39":{"name":"Fuel made from Russian crude, measured per buyer: the buyer's own customs imports of fuel by origin (UN Comtrade, DGCI&S) x the Russian share of each origin's crude (customs; CREA and KSE Institute refinery data) x crude content","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS","date":"2026-10-23","note":"pre-war level measured the same way; the speculative versions are in the method band; see research/2026-10/gaps/laundered_r39-notes.md","type":"data","links":[{"title":"Fuel made from Russian crude, measured per buyer: the buyer's own customs imports of fuel by origin (UN Comtrade, DGCI&S) x the Russian share of each origin's crude (customs; CREA and KSE Institute refinery data) x crude 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consigning country (Eurostat), Australian Petroleum Statistics","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/nrg_ti_oil?geo=CY&geo=MT&siec=O4000&unit=THS_T","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"data"},"companies":{"name":"KSE Institute and B4Ukraine: all taxes paid in Russia by foreign-owned companies, by home country","url":"https://institute.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/leave-russia_regular-digest_09_07_26_eng_july_2026.pdf","date":"2026-10-17","note":"reported for about 20 countries, allocated by company counts and investment for the rest; companies sold to Russian owners are not counted","links":[{"title":"KSE Institute, Leave Russia regular digest (July 2026)","url":"https://institute.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/leave-russia_regular-digest_09_07_26_eng_july_2026.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"B4Ukraine report 2025 (How global firms bankrolled Russia's war chest in 2024)","url":"https://b4ukraine.org/pdf/B4Ukraine_Report_2025.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"B4Ukraine: The Business of Staying","url":"https://b4ukraine.org/pdf/BusinessOfStaying.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"KSE Institute: financial results of foreign business in Russia in 2023","url":"https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/ENG_What-are-the-financial-results-of-foreign-business-in-Russia-in-2023_final.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Leave Russia company database (KSE)","url":"https://leave-russia.org/","kind":"primary"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"company_taxes_r6":{"name":"Company taxes in Russia: KSE checked against company reports (Raiffeisen, UniCredit, OTP, PepsiCo) and Bundesbank reinvested earnings","url":"https://www.rbinternational.com/content/dam/rbi/ho/investors/results-reports/annual-reports/rbi/2025-02-25%202024%20RBI%20Annual%20Financial%20Report.pdf.coredownload.pdf","date":"2026-10-18","note":"replaces the KSE split; see research/2026-10/gaps/company_taxes_r6-notes.md","links":[{"title":"RBI Annual Financial Report 2024","url":"https://www.rbinternational.com/content/dam/rbi/ho/investors/results-reports/annual-reports/rbi/2025-02-25%202024%20RBI%20Annual%20Financial%20Report.pdf.coredownload.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"OTP Bank investor presentation 4Q 2025","url":"https://www.otpbank.hu/static/portal/sw/file/OTP_Bank_Inv_Pres_4Q2025.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Deutsche Bundesbank: direct investment statistics (May 2025)","url":"https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/957944/3f44e3b0af199f69ebcd49ea5887bc01/472B63F073F071307366337C94F8C870/2025-05-16-14-13-59-direktinvestitionsstatistiken-data.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"KSE Institute, Leave Russia regular digest (July 2026)","url":"https://institute.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/leave-russia_regular-digest_09_07_26_eng_july_2026.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"B4Ukraine report 2025","url":"https://b4ukraine.org/pdf/B4Ukraine_Report_2025.pdf","kind":"primary"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"services":{"name":"Services trade with Russia (tourism, transport, business services): Eurostat, OECD-WTO BaTiS, Bank of Russia","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/balanced-trade-in-services.html","date":"2026-10","note":"see research/2026-10/gaps/uncovered-notes.md","links":[{"title":"OECD-WTO BaTiS SDMX API: services trade with Russia, all partners","url":"https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_BATIS@DF_BATIS,1.0/.RUS...S...?startPeriod=2010&endPeriod=2021","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Eurostat bop_its6_det API: EU services trade with Russia","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/bop_its6_det?partner=RU&bop_item=S&currency=MIO_EUR","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Eurostat bop_its6_det (table view)","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/bop_its6_det/default/table","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Bank of Russia: balance of payments standard components (xlsx)","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/vfs/eng/statistics/credit_statistics/bop/bal_of_payments_standart_e.xlsx","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Services trade with Russia (tourism, transport, business services): Eurostat, OECD-WTO BaTiS, Bank of Russia","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/balanced-trade-in-services.html","kind":"primary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"hidden":{"name":"Gold and hidden payment channels to Russia not in customs data: Swissaid, Reuters, Hong Kong and Kyrgyz trade gaps","date":"2026-10","note":"rough indication, certainty D","links":[{"title":"SWISSAID: United Arab Emirates more than ever a hub for conflict gold","url":"https://www.swissaid.ch/en/media/united-arab-emirates-more-than-ever-a-hub-for-conflict-gold/","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: Hong Kong gold (HS 7108) and total trade with Russia and hubs","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=344&period=2025&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=7108,TOTAL","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: all reporters' imports of gold (HS 7108) from the UAE, 2024","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=784&flowCode=M&cmdCode=7108","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Akchabar: lost gold - why the sale of 50 tonnes is not in Kyrgyz statistics","url":"http://www.akchabar.kg/en/article/nedvizhimost-mvcszetffpwgppcz/poteryannoe-zoloto-pochemu-v-naczstatistike-ne-otrazilas-prodazha-50-tonn-dragmetalla","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Mining.com (Reuters): From Russia with gold - UAE cashes in as sanctions bite","url":"https://www.mining.com/web/from-russia-with-gold-uae-cashes-in-as-sanctions-bite/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Elliptic: A7A5, the ruble-backed stablecoin","url":"https://www.elliptic.co/insights/a7a5-the-ruble-backed-stablecoin-100-billion-in-transactions/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: Hong Kong's imports from Russia, all goods and HS 71, 2023","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=344&partnerCode=643&period=2023&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL,71","kind":"primary"}],"type":"report","url":"https://www.swissaid.ch/en/media/united-arab-emirates-more-than-ever-a-hub-for-conflict-gold/","date_kind":"checked"},"undisclosed":{"name":"Undisclosed military aid beyond the Kiel tracker: Kiel policy briefs, national reports","date":"2026-10","note":"certainty C-D","links":[{"title":"Kiel Institute: Ukraine Support Tracker research note","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/Subject_Dossiers_Topics/Ukraine/Ukraine_Support_Tracker/Ukraine_Support_Tracker_-_Research_Note.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Kiel Institute: only EUR 41.7bn of Germany's EUR 100bn went to Ukraine","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/media/news/ukraine-support-tracker-only-eur-417-billion-of-germanys-eur-100-billion-went-to-ukraine/","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Public S\u00e9nat: France granted nearly EUR 3bn in aid in 2024 (Lecornu)","url":"https://www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/international/ukraine-avec-le-degel-des-avoirs-russes-la-france-aura-accorde-pres-de-3-milliards-deuros-daides-en-2024-annonce-sebastien-lecornu","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Militarnyi (Welt): a third of Ukrainian ammunition supplied from Bulgaria","url":"https://militarnyi.com/en/news/at-the-beginning-of-the-war-a-third-of-ukrainian-ammunition-was-supplied-from-bulgaria-welt/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"IAI: Italy's military aid to Ukraine","url":"https://www.iai.it/en/node/22399","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Al Jazeera: Greece prepares a military deal with Ukraine","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/16/russian-anger-builds-as-greece-prepares-a-military-deal-with-ukraine","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"report","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/Subject_Dossiers_Topics/Ukraine/Ukraine_Support_Tracker/Ukraine_Support_Tracker_-_Research_Note.pdf","date_kind":"checked"},"private":{"name":"Private donations to Ukraine: national donation totals (DZI, DEC, Candid) and a GDP-based model elsewhere","date":"2026-10","note":"certainty C-D","links":[{"title":"DZI press release 16 Apr 2025 (German donations for Ukraine)","url":"https://www.dzi.de/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/DZI_PM_16Apr2025.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Candid: Update - philanthropy's response to the Ukraine crisis","url":"https://candid.org/blogs/update-philanthropys-response-to-ukraine-crisis/","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Civil Society / Fundraising: DEC Ukraine humanitarian appeal raised over GBP 400m","url":"https://fundraising.co.uk/2023/02/02/dec-ukraine-humanitarian-appeal-has-raised-over-400mn/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Hart van Nederland: Giro555 action closes with over EUR 184m for Ukraine","url":"https://www.hartvannederland.nl/oekraine/langstlopende-giro555-actie-ooit-is-klaar-ruim-184-miljoen-voor-oekraine","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Fondation de France press release, Feb 2026 (four years of Solidarite Ukraine): EUR 21.6m collected to 31 Dec 2025, of which EUR 1.8m in 2025; first-year release: EUR 16.8m collected to Feb 2023","url":"https://fondationdefrance.org/images/pdf/2026/CP_FDF_4_ans_Ukraine.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Interfax-Ukraine: United24 totals","url":"https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1069153.html","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Method: Undisclosed aid and private donations","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-aid-refugees-military-undisclosed-aid-and-private-donations","kind":"method"}],"type":"report","url":"https://www.dzi.de/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/DZI_PM_16Apr2025.pdf","date_kind":"checked"},"military_rus_r6":{"name":"Military support to Russia: Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence, Open Source Centre, the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, INSS, leaked Alabuga contracts, Russian procurement prices","url":"https://msmt.info/api/file/download/18858","date":"2026-10-18","note":"market value of what Russia received; North Korea and Iran certainty C; see research/2026-10/gaps/military_rus_r6-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, MSMT/2025/1: Unlawful Military Cooperation including Arms Transfers between North Korea and Russia (29 May 2025, UN document S/2025/340)","url":"https://msmt.info/api/file/download/18858","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"NK News on INSS: North Korea likely earned USD 14.4bn from military deals with Russia","url":"https://www.nknews.org/2026/03/north-korea-likely-earned-14-4b-from-military-deals-with-russia-report/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"IStories with Open Source Centre: how North Korea armed Russia","url":"https://istories.media/en/stories/2026/03/16/how-north-korea-armed-russia/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Kyiv Independent: ROK intelligence - >12m 152mm rounds","url":"https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-supplied-russia-with-12-million-rounds-of-152mm-shells-south-korean-intel-estimates/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"The War Zone: what does a Shahed-136 really cost (leaked Alabuga contracts)","url":"https://twz.com/news-features/what-does-a-shahed-136-really-cost","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Militarnyi: Iran sent Russia USD 2.7bn worth of missiles alone","url":"https://militarnyi.com/en/blogs/iran-sent-russia-2-7-billion-worth-of-missiles-alone/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Militarnyi: role of the Belarusian defence industry in Russian aggression","url":"https://militarnyi.com/en/articles/role-of-defense-industry-of-belarus-in-russian-aggression-against-ukraine/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"OCCRP: Belarus ramps up arms pipeline to Russia","url":"https://www.occrp.org/en/news/belarus-ramps-up-arms-pipeline-to-russia-amid-sanctions-gaps","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"china_military":{"name":"China's military support to Russia not in recorded trade: CSIS, RUSI, KSE, Reuters, US and EU findings","date":"2026-10-18","note":"rough indication (D); recorded dual-use exports are already counted as sales to Russia; see research/2026-10/gaps/china_military-notes.md","links":[{"title":"KSE Institute sanctions: China and Russia (CHP)","url":"https://sanctions.kse.ua/?p=13285","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"PBS/AP: US intelligence shows China surging equipment sales to Russia","url":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-intelligence-shows-china-is-surging-equipment-sales-to-russia-to-help-war-effort-in-ukraine-ap-says","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Brussels Times: EU sanctions Chinese companies including satellite firm","url":"https://www.brusselstimes.com/business/1109130/eu-sanctions-chinese-companies-including-global-satellite-giant","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"CP24/Reuters: Russians covertly trained by China return to fight","url":"https://www.cp24.com/news/world/2026/05/19/russians-covertly-trained-by-china-return-to-fight-in-ukraine-reuters-sources-say/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Kathmandu Post/Reuters: Russia has secret war drones project in China","url":"https://kathmandupost.com/world/2024/09/25/russia-has-secret-war-drones-project-in-china-intel-sources-say","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"report","url":"https://sanctions.kse.ua/?p=13285","date_kind":"checked"},"people":{"name":"Volunteers and recruited fighters: compiled estimates","date":"2026-10","note":"rough indication, certainty D","links":[{"title":"Kyiv Independent (South Korea NIS): nearly 11,000 North Korean troops in Kursk","url":"https://kyivindependent.com/nearly-11-000-north-korean-troops-stationed-in-russias-kursk-oblast-at-start-of-2026-media-reports/","kind":"secondary","key":true},{"title":"Kyiv Independent (iStories, leaked Moscow EMIAS data): >1,500 foreign recruits from 48 countries","url":"https://kyivindependent.com/over-1-500-foreign-mercenaries-from-48-countries-join-russian-military-media-reports/","kind":"secondary","key":true},{"title":"RBC-Ukraine: Russia's top source of foreign mercenaries (GUR/'I Want to Live')","url":"https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-s-top-source-of-foreign-mercenaries-1781320790.html","kind":"secondary","key":true},{"title":"NPR: Kenyans recruited by Russia","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/02/19/g-s1-110724/russia-ukraine-war-kenyans-recruited","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Kontan (Russian MoD list): foreign mercenaries fighting in Ukraine","url":"https://english.kontan.co.id/news/complete-list-of-foreign-mercenaries-fighting-in-ukraine-10-from-indonesia","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"The Insider (Czech Radio): Czech volunteers approved","url":"https://theins.press/en/politics/281953","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Responsible Statecraft: foreign fighters in Ukraine","url":"https://responsiblestatecraft.org/foreign-fighters-ukraine/","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"press","url":"https://kyivindependent.com/nearly-11-000-north-korean-troops-stationed-in-russias-kursk-oblast-at-start-of-2026-media-reports/","date_kind":"checked"},"shipping":{"name":"Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports","url":"https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT_July-2026.pdf","date":"2026-10-18","note":"freight = barrels x freight rates, split by owner or manager country; see research/2026-10/gaps/shipping-notes.md","links":[{"title":"KSE Institute: Russian oil tracker, July 2026","url":"https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT_July-2026.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Bank of Russia: balance of payments standard components (xlsx)","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/vfs/eng/statistics/credit_statistics/bop/bal_of_payments_standart_e.xlsx","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Baird Maritime: April shipping costs decline for Russian Urals crude to India","url":"https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/tankers/april-shipping-costs-decline-for-russian-urals-crude-to-india","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"CREA: July 2025 monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/july-2025-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Method: 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2023","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=398&period=2023&partnerCode=0,643&flowCode=X,M&cmdCode=AG2","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: Kyrgyzstan (417) trade with World and Russia by HS chapter, 2023","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=417&period=2023&partnerCode=0,643&flowCode=X,M&cmdCode=AG2","kind":"primary"},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: Turkey (792) trade with World and Russia by HS chapter, 2023","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=792&period=2023&partnerCode=0,643&flowCode=X,M&cmdCode=AG2","kind":"primary"},{"title":"EBRD: trade flows between Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia","url":"https://www.ebrd.com/home/news-and-events/news/2023/ebrd-analyses-trade-flows-between-russia-caucasus-and-central-asia.html","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Brookings: transshipments from the EU to 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gap","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-trade-residual-gap","kind":"method"}],"type":"data","url":"https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/EXCEL_FILES/1_General/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx","date_kind":"data"},"hk_gold_r16":{"name":"Hong Kong's gold exports by destination (HS 7108): UN Comtrade, 2022-2025","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=344&period=2025&flowCode=X,M,RX&cmdCode=7108","date":"2026-10-20","note":"the Russian gold Hong Kong passed on to buyers other than mainland China, by their share of its gold exports; see research/2026-10/gaps/hk_gold-notes.md","type":"data","links":[{"title":"Hong Kong's gold exports by destination (HS 7108): UN Comtrade, 2022-2025","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=344&period=2025&flowCode=X,M,RX&cmdCode=7108","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"data"},"audit":{"name":"Audit of 31 major countries 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API","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=A&reporter=HU&partner=RU&product=27&flow=1&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&time=2024","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Poland MFA: Poland's support 1000 days after Russia's aggression","url":"https://www.gov.pl/web/japonia/polands-support-1000-days-after-russias-aggression-against-ukraine","kind":"primary"}],"type":"notes","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/bc5059ba-ef38-4f08-988a-746a03905a6c-Ukraine_Support_Tracker__Release_31.xlsx","date_kind":"checked"},"sanctions_share":{"name":"Share of the cut in trade with Russia required by sanctions: EU Regulation 833/2014 (consolidated versions), US, UK, Japanese, Canadian and other bans, Eurostat Comext and UN Comtrade","url":"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX:32014R0833","date":"2026-10-18","note":"a label only, the totals do not change; see research/2026-10/gaps/sanctions_share-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Neste: Neste's response to the war in Ukraine (the last crude cargo of Russian origin arrived at Porvoo on 20 July 2022)","url":"https://www.neste.com/nestes-response-to-the-war-in-ukraine","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Neste, 6 April 2022: One of the last remaining crude oil cargoes from Russia will arrive at Neste tonight","url":"https://neste.com/news/one-of-the-last-remaining-crude-oil-cargoes-from-russia-will-arrive-at-neste-tonight","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"The Baltic Times (BNS), 25 March 2022: Orlen Lithuania plans to refine Saudi oil only","url":"https://www.baltictimes.com/orlen_lithuania_plans_to_refine_saudi_oil_only___minister/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Stars and Stripes (dpa), 20 December 2022: Germany says it won't be buying Russian oil at all in 2023","url":"https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-12-20/germany-russian-oil-2023-8490978.html","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Share of the cut in trade with Russia required by sanctions: EU Regulation 833/2014 (consolidated versions), US, UK, Japanese, Canadian and other bans, Eurostat Comext and UN Comtrade","url":"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX:32014R0833","kind":"primary","key":true}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"gas_cuts":{"name":"Russian gas cut off by Russia or by the end of Ukrainian transit, and Druzhba oil to Poland halted by Russia (25 February 2023): company, gas operator and press statements of each cut (Gazprom to Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Latvia, France's Engie, Moldova, Austria's OMV; transit end 1 January 2025; Orlen on Druzhba)","url":"https://www.gasunietransportservices.nl/en/news/gazprom-ceases-supplying-gasterra-with-effect-from-31-may","date":"2026-10-19","note":"a label only, the totals do not change; dates in build_data.py RUSSIA_GAS_CUT; Poland's gas part from final-use volumes (energy2.json)","links":[{"title":"Gasum, 20 May 2022: natural gas imports from Russia under Gasum's supply contract will be halted on Saturday 21 May at 07.00","url":"https://gasum.com/en/About-gasum/for-the-media/News/2022/natural-gas-imports-from-russia-under-gasums-supply-contract-will-be-halted-on-saturday-21-may-at-07.00","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Gasunie Transport Services: Gazprom ceases supplying GasTerra with effect from 31 May","url":"https://www.gasunietransportservices.nl/en/news/gazprom-ceases-supplying-gasterra-with-effect-from-31-may","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"\u00d8rsted: Gazprom Export will halt the supply of gas to \u00d8rsted (1 June 2022)","url":"https://orsted.com/en/media/news/2022/05/20220531530111","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"RFE/RL: Russia suspends Nord Stream 1 deliveries indefinitely (September 2022)","url":"https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-suspends-nord-streams-energy-ukraine/32016816.html","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"ERR News: Gazprom announces suspension of supplies to Latvia (30 July 2022)","url":"https://news.err.ee/1608671326/gazprom-announces-suspension-of-supplies-to-latvia","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Enerdata: Russia's Gazprom fully suspends gas deliveries to French utility Engie (1 September 2022)","url":"https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/russias-gazprom-fully-suspends-gas-deliveries-french-utility-engie.html","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Interfax: Gazprom has cut supplies of gas to Moldova 30% in October (26 October 2022)","url":"https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/84337/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"OSW: Moldova diversifies gas import sources (8 December 2022)","url":"https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2022-12-08/moldova-diversifies-gas-import-sources","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"OSW: Austria, the end of direct gas 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screened","url":"https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/prices-notes.md","date":"2026-10-19","note":"prices.json, energy2.json price_index, gas_prices.json; freight from shipping-notes.md; see How it works","links":[{"title":"Price levels: method and data","url":"https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/prices-notes.md","kind":"model"},{"title":"UN Comtrade API (customs values and quantities by partner and HS code)","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2023&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=TOTAL&flowCode=M","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Gas prices by buyer","url":"https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/gas_prices-notes.md","kind":"model"},{"title":"Sea freight on Russian oil (freight 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(xlsx)","url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20250502203719/https://www.belstat.gov.by/upload-belstat/upload-belstat-excel/Oficial_statistika/Godovwe/ExImS2-2021.xlsx","kind":"primary","archived":true,"key":true},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: Armenia monthly imports from Russia, Aug 2026","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/M/HS?reporterCode=51&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&period=202608&cmdCode=TOTAL","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Eurostat bop_its6_det API: Cyprus services with Russia","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/bop_its6_det?geo=CY&partner=RU&currency=MIO_EUR&bop_item=S","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Statistics Agency of Uzbekistan press release","url":"https://stat.uz/img/news/press-reliz-rus_p38034.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"EAEU Commission: mutual trade statistics, time 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UAE imports from Russia and Armenia (TOTAL, 71, 7108, 27), 2023","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=784&period=2023&partnerCode=643,51&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL,71,7108,27","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: Armenia gold exports (7108) to UAE, HK, China, Russia, 2024","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=51&period=2024&partnerCode=784,344,156,643&flowCode=X&cmdCode=7108","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Eurostat nrg_ti_oil API: Baltic/Finnish oil imports 2021","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/nrg_ti_oil?format=JSON&geo=EE&geo=LV&geo=LT&geo=FI&time=2021&siec=O4100_TOT&siec=O4600&unit=THS_T","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Kiel Institute: Ukraine Support Tracker research 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and CEPR studies","url":"https://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/pb/2025/pb2025-50.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"data"},"windfall_band":{"name":"War-time gas price windfall under the pre-war no-war price paths: World Bank and IMF October-2021 forecasts, IMF/EIA/ECB January-2022 views, ICE TTF futures of mid-February 2022 and of early 2021 (TTF Cal-22 at EUR 16.7-18.1/MWh, January-March 2021); each contract's TTF/oil formula","url":"https://www.ice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Natural-Gas-Futures/data","date":"2026-10-22","note":"the windfall line's range under the other no-war paths; see research/2026-10/gaps/windfall_band_r24-notes.md","links":[{"title":"ICE Endex: Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, settlement prices (the Cal-22 contract traded at EUR 16.7-18.1/MWh in January-March 2021)","url":"https://www.ice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Natural-Gas-Futures/data","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"European Commission, DG ENER: Quarterly report on European gas markets, first quarter of 2021 (forward prices far steadier than spot)","url":"https://commission.europa.eu/news-and-media/news/quarterly-market-reports-confirm-globalised-nature-gas-market-1st-quarter-2021-2021-07-08_en","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"IEA: Gas Market Report Q1 2022 (Gazprom's role in the 2021 tightness)","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/gas-market-report-q1-2022","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"World Bank: Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2021","url":"https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/36350","kind":"primary","key":true}],"type":"ours","date_kind":"checked"},"windfall":{"name":"War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE)","url":"https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/energy_nowar-notes.md","date":"2026-10-18","note":"fuel share of payments per year from own customs where measured (prices.json), else the pre-war import mix; fuel price indices (prices.json, energy2.json, gas_prices.json); round 14: oil at FOB, the war-time sea-freight surge (shipping-notes.md freight pool) taken out of customs CIF values","links":[{"title":"IMF WEO Update January 2022 (text)","url":"https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/update/january/english/text.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook October 2021, forecasts","url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/ff5bad98f52ffa2457136bbef5703ddb-0350012021/related/CMO-October-2021-forecasts.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2022 (base xlsx)","url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jan22_base.xlsx","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Eurosystem staff projections December 2021 (PDF)","url":"https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecb.projections202112_eurosystemstaff~32e481d712.en.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"European Commission Winter 2022 interim forecast (ip169)","url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-02/ip169_en.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"European Commission Spring 2022 forecast (ip173)","url":"https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-05/ip173_en.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"FRED: Australian coal price (PCOALAUUSDM)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCOALAUUSDM","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Method: War-time windfall","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-prices-war-time-windfall","kind":"method"},{"title":"War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE)","url":"https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/energy_nowar-notes.md","kind":"primary"}],"type":"ours","date_kind":"checked"},"trend":{"name":"Pre-war trade trends 2012-2021 in real terms (UN Comtrade, price indices), continued with a 3-year half-life","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2012&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL","date":"2026-10-18","note":"back-tested on 2002-2013; see research/2026-10/gaps/trend-notes.md","links":[{"title":"UN Comtrade API (annual HS, all reporters vs Russia, 2012)","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2012&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Eurostat sts_inpi_a API: euro-area import price index","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/sts_inpi_a?format=JSON&geo=EA20&unit=I21&indic_bt=PRC_IMP","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"FRED: Brent crude (DCOILBRENTEU)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Method: the counterfactual models","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-counterfactual-3-the-16-models-of-generation-4","kind":"method"}],"type":"ours","date_kind":"checked"},"gas_prices":{"name":"Russian gas prices per country: Eurostat Comext and UN Comtrade unit values, published contract prices, oil-formula estimates","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/international-trade-in-goods/database","date":"2026-10-18","note":"see research/2026-10/gaps/gas_prices-notes.md; Turkey, Poland, Germany and Austria are modelled from neighbours or oil formulas","links":[{"title":"Eurostat Comext DS-045409 API: monthly gas imports from Russia (HS 271121, 271111), value and quantity","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=M&partner=RU&product=271121&product=271111&flow=1&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&indicators=QUANTITY_IN_100KG&sinceTimePeriod=2021-01","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: imports of HS 2711 from Russia, 2024","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=2711,271111,271121","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"FRED: Brent (POILBREUSDM)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILBREUSDM","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"OSW: new Hungarian-Russian gas agreement","url":"https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2021-09-29/new-hungarian-russian-gas-agreement","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Prime Press: price of Russian gas for Belarus in 2021","url":"https://primepress.by/news/ekonomika/price_of_russia_s_gas_for_belarus_up_1_2_to_128_5_per_1_000_cubic_meters_in_2021-28396/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Method: Gas prices per country","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-prices-gas-prices-per-country","kind":"method"},{"title":"Russian gas prices per country: Eurostat Comext and UN Comtrade unit values, published contract prices, oil-formula estimates","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/international-trade-in-goods/database","kind":"primary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"trend2":{"name":"Pre-war trends for services (OECD-WTO BaTiS, Eurostat, Bank of Russia), foreign companies in Russia and Russian seaborne exports","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/balanced-trade-in-services.html","date":"2026-10-18","note":"travel fitted on 2012-2019 with the COVID rebound; see research/2026-10/gaps/trend2-notes.md","links":[{"title":"OECD-WTO BaTiS SDMX API: services trade with Russia 2010-2021","url":"https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_BATIS@DF_BATIS,1.0/.RUS...S...?startPeriod=2010&endPeriod=2021","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Eurostat bop_its6_det API: services and travel with Russia","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/bop_its6_det?partner=RU&bop_item=S&bop_item=SD&currency=MIO_EUR","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Bank of Russia: balance of payments standard components (xlsx)","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/vfs/statistics/credit_statistics/bop/bal_of_payments_standart.xlsx","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"IMF DIP SDMX: inward direct investment in Russia","url":"https://api.imf.org/external/sdmx/2.1/data/IMF.STA,DIP/RUS..INWD_D_NETLA_FALL_ALL..A","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Morport: Russian seaports cargo turnover 2021","url":"https://www.morport.com/rus/news/gruzooborot-morskih-portov-rossii-za-12-mesyacev-2021-g","kind":"primary"},{"title":"World Bank API: Russia GDP (current USD)","url":"https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/RUS/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Pre-war trends for services (OECD-WTO BaTiS, Eurostat, Bank of Russia), foreign companies in Russia and Russian seaborne exports","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/balanced-trade-in-services.html","kind":"primary"}],"type":"ours","date_kind":"checked"},"counterfactual":{"name":"Expected trade without the war: models back-tested on 2008, 2013 and 2016 against holding 2021 flat (UN Comtrade, World Bank WDI and commodity prices, UN voting)","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2021&partnerCode=643&flowCode=X&cmdCode=TOTAL","date":"2026-10-18","note":"exports to Russia and trade with Ukraine follow a nowcast; imports from Russia and services keep 2021; see research/2026-10/gaps/counterfactual-notes.md","links":[{"title":"UN Comtrade API (annual HS, all reporters vs Russia, 2021)","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2021&partnerCode=643&flowCode=X&cmdCode=TOTAL","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"World Bank Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet)","url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"World Bank API: GDP (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD)","url":"https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/all/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Method: the counterfactual models","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-counterfactual-6-which-model-is-used-for-which-flow","kind":"method"}],"type":"ours","date_kind":"checked"},"ua_trade_cf":{"name":"Expected trade with Ukraine without the war: rolling back-tests on Ukraine's own history and on analogue partners (IMF WEO vintages, IMF DOTS)","url":"https://db.nomics.world/IMF/DOT","date":"2026-10-18","note":"2021 held flat for both flows; see research/2026-10/gaps/ua_trade_cf-notes.md","links":[{"title":"DBnomics: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOT)","url":"https://db.nomics.world/IMF/DOT","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"DBnomics: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) vintages","url":"https://db.nomics.world/IMF/WEO:2021-10","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"World Bank: GDP constant USD (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD)","url":"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Method: Trade with Ukraine","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-counterfactual-trade-with-ukraine","kind":"method"}],"type":"ours","date_kind":"checked"},"cf_bands":{"name":"Ranges of the 2022-2026 total measured on the back-tests' cumulative errors; own bands tested on their own history for Mongolia, Yemen, Tajikistan, Moldova, T\u00fcrkiye, Kenya, Peru and French Polynesia","date":"2026-10-18","note":"see research/2026-10/gaps/cf_bands-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Method: How the prediction's error enters the ranges","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-counterfactual-7-how-the-predictions-error-enters-the-ranges","kind":"method"},{"title":"Method: Russia's neighbours and Moldova","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-counterfactual-russias-neighbours-and-moldova","kind":"method"},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: Moldova imports from Russia by product, 2019","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=498&period=2019&flowCode=M&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=99,2711,27,31,TOTAL","kind":"primary","key":true}],"type":"ours","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=498&period=2019&flowCode=M&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=99,2711,27,31,TOTAL","date_kind":"checked"},"epdk_r43":{"name":"EPDK (Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority): natural gas and oil market reports, imports by country of origin 2005-2026","url":"https://www.epdk.gov.tr/Detay/Icerik/3-0-94/dogal-gazyillik-sektor-raporu","date":"2026-10-24","note":"Russian gas and crude volumes; T\u00fcrkiye's own no-war band; see research/2026-10/gaps/turkey_gas_r43-notes.md","type":"data","links":[{"title":"EPDK (Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority): natural gas and oil market reports, imports by country of origin 2005-2026","url":"https://www.epdk.gov.tr/Detay/Icerik/3-0-94/dogal-gazyillik-sektor-raporu","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"data"},"power_of_siberia":{"name":"Power of Siberia: contracted gas deliveries to China (Gazprom's 2014 CNPC contract, 38 bcm a year; yearly volumes via Interfax, TASS and Reuters)","url":"https://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2014/may/article191451/","date":"2026-10-19","note":"the contracted ramp-up (2014 contract, 38 bcm/yr plateau) is in China's no-war path; see research/2026-10/gaps/power_of_siberia_r15.json","type":"press","links":[{"title":"Power of Siberia: contracted gas deliveries to China (Gazprom's 2014 CNPC contract, 38 bcm a year; yearly volumes via Interfax, TASS and Reuters)","url":"https://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2014/may/article191451/","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"checked"},"weapons_value":{"name":"Donated weapons at market value: GAO and DoD Inspector General (US drawdown valuation), UK National Audit Office, EU Peace Facility claims, used-equipment and munitions prices","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106934","date":"2026-10-18","note":"factor = market value / recorded value per Kiel row; see research/2026-10/gaps/weapons_value-notes.md","links":[{"title":"GAO-24-106934: Ukraine assistance - actions needed to properly value defense articles (PDF)","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106934","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"DoD OIG DODIG-2024-095: revaluation of PDA support to Ukraine","url":"https://www.dodig.mil/reports.html/Article/3805413/audit-of-the-dods-revaluation-of-the-support-provided-to-ukraine-through-presid/","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UK NAO: Investigation into military support for Ukraine (summary)","url":"https://nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Investigation-into-military-support-for-Ukraine-Summary-1.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"NK\u00da Slovakia: donating military property to Ukraine","url":"https://www.nku.gov.sk/web/nku-en/-/slovakia-has-actively-helped-ukraine-by-donating-military-property","kind":"primary"},{"title":"DSCA: Excess Defense Articles","url":"https://www.dsca.mil/Programs/Defense-Trade-and-Arms-Transfers/Excess-Defense-Articles","kind":"primary"},{"title":"ERR/Politico: Estonia using EPF to modernise its military","url":"https://news.err.ee/1608928883/politico-estonia-using-epf-to-modernize-its-military","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Kiel Institute, Ukraine Support Tracker Release 31 workbook (xlsx)","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/bc5059ba-ef38-4f08-988a-746a03905a6c-Ukraine_Support_Tracker__Release_31.xlsx","kind":"primary"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"state_finance":{"name":"Rosatom projects abroad and Russia's state loans: World Bank International Debt Statistics (Russia as creditor), project and loan reporting","url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/debt-statistics/ids","date":"2026-10-18","note":"drawdowns left out (they pay for work not counted); see research/2026-10/gaps/russia_state_finance-notes.md","links":[{"title":"World Bank IDS API: interest paid to Russia as bilateral creditor (counterpart 087)","url":"https://api.worldbank.org/v2/sources/6/country/all/series/DT.INT.BLAT.CD/counterpart-area/087","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"TBS News: Rooppur plant payment hurdle","url":"https://www.tbsnews.net/economy/rooppur-plant-payment-hurdle-sticks-it-1097121","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"World Nuclear News: Hungary delays Paks II loan repayment","url":"https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Hungary-gets-agreement-to-delay-Paks-II-loan-repay","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Paks II Ltd: Hungary begins early repayment of the loan","url":"https://www.paks2.hu/en/web/paks-2-en/w/hungary-begins-the-early-repayment-of-the-loan","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Egypt Independent: USD 25bn Russian loan for Dabaa","url":"https://www.egyptindependent.com/25-bn-russian-funds-egypt-s-first-nuclear-plant-newspaper/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: imports from Russia of nuclear goods (HS 2844, 8401), 2024","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=2844,8401","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Method: Nuclear projects and state loans from Russia","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-russia-state-and-companies-nuclear-projects-and-state-loans-from-russia","kind":"method"},{"title":"Rosatom projects abroad and Russia's state loans: World Bank International Debt Statistics (Russia as creditor), project and loan reporting","url":"https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/debt-statistics/ids","kind":"primary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"company_flows":{"name":"Company exits from Russia and Russian-owned companies abroad: Russian budget data, KSE and Yale exit lists, company reports, Bank of Russia balance of payments","url":"https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/KSE_Assessing-Foreign-Companies-Losses-in-Russia.pdf","date":"2026-10-18","note":"exit contribution and forced discount by home country; profits of Russian-owned firms by host country; see research/2026-10/gaps/company_flows-notes.md","links":[{"title":"KSE Institute: assessing foreign companies' direct losses in Russia (Mar 2025)","url":"https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/KSE_Assessing-Foreign-Companies-Losses-in-Russia.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Bank of Russia: balance of payments standard components (xlsx)","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/vfs/eng/statistics/credit_statistics/bop/bal_of_payments_standart_e.xlsx","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Bank of Russia: outward direct investment by country 2021 (CDIS)","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/vfs/eng/statistics/credit_statistics/direct_investment/CDIS_Out_e_2021.xlsx","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Meduza: voluntary contributions 2025 RUB 251.3bn; 2026 forecast","url":"https://meduza.io/en/news/2026/10/01/putin-reportedly-asked-russian-business-leaders-to-help-fund-the-war-moscow-expects-471-billion-rubles-in-voluntary-contributions-from-companies-this-year","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"RBI: Rasperia second-instance verdict (IR release)","url":"https://www.rbinternational.com/content/dam/rbi/ho/investors/news/ir-releases/rasperia-verdict/2025-04-24%20Rasperia%20second%20instance%20verdict%20IR%20release%20RBI.pdf.coredownload.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Eurostat bop_fdi6_inc API: FDI income","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/bop_fdi6_inc","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Method: Companies leaving Russia","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-russia-state-and-companies-companies-leaving-russia","kind":"method"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"russian_owned_r10":{"name":"Russian-owned metals, mining and chemicals plants abroad (Rusal, NLMK, Nornickel, EuroChem): company filings and parent reports","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=A&reporter=IE&partner=RU&product=281820&flow=2&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS","date":"2026-10-18","note":"profits and dividends sent to the Russian parent, by host country; see research/2026-10/gaps/russian_owned_r10-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Irish Times: Aughinish Alumina records profits of EUR 103m","url":"https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2026/04/03/russian-owned-aughinish-alumina-plant-in-limerick-records-profits-of-103m/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"RTE: Limerick alumina refining results","url":"https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2024/1212/1486128-limerick-alumina-refining-ltd-results/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Eurostat Comext API: Irish alumina (HS 281820) exports to Russia","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=A&reporter=IE&partner=RU&product=281820&flow=2&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Largest Companies: Kubikenborg Aluminium AB key figures","url":"https://largestcompanies.com/company/Kubikenborg-Aluminium-AB-21997/closing-figures-and-key-ratios","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Companyweb: EuroChem Antwerpen NV accounts","url":"https://www.companyweb.be/en/0837473452/euro-chem-antwerpen","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"NLMK: NLMK Group and SOGEPA equalise holdings in NBH","url":"https://eu.nlmk.com/en/media-center/news-groups/nlmk-group-and-sogepa-equalize-their-holdings-in-nlmk-belgium-holdings-sa/","kind":"primary","key":true}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"rusfirms_r44":{"name":"Iraq EITI 2021-2023 (PCLD remuneration and tax tables) and Alrosa IFRS 2021/2025 (Catoca dividends)","url":"https://eiti.org/document/25590","date":"2026-10-25","note":"see research/2026-10/gaps/rusfirms_r44-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Iraq EITI Report 2023 (Ministry of Oil PCLD remuneration and tax tables)","url":"https://eiti.org/document/25590","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Iraq EITI Report 2022","url":"https://eiti.org/document/25352","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"ALROSA IFRS consolidated financial statements 2025 (Catoca sale and dividend claims, notes 5.2-5.3)","url":"https://www.alrosa.ru/upload/iblock/716/4qtpyyo2q8ggbhcpysfxhauxoolmzuww/ALROSA%20IFRS%202025%20ENG%20with%20exception.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"seizures":{"name":"Company assets seized by Russia (decree 302 temporary management, expropriation by decree, court seizures, leased aircraft): owners' write-downs and book values, KSE Institute loss study and company reports","url":"https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/KSE_Assessing-Foreign-Companies-Losses-in-Russia.pdf","date":"2026-10-19","note":"by the company's home country, in the year control was lost, minus anything received abroad; see research/2026-10/gaps/company_flows-notes.md (seizures)","links":[{"title":"KSE Institute, Assessing Foreign Companies' Direct Losses in Russia (2025), Annex 1: selected business seizures","url":"https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/KSE_Assessing-Foreign-Companies-Losses-in-Russia.pdf","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Fortum: inside information, Fortum to fully write down its Russian assets (decree 302, impairment of about EUR 1.7bn)","url":"https://www.fortum.com/media/2023/05/inside-information-fortum-fully-write-down-its-russian-assets-and-deconsolidate-russia-segment-publishes-restated-comparison-figures","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"OSW, Wintershall Dea withdraws from Russia (one-time write-down of EUR 5.3bn, Q4 2022)","url":"https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2023-01-27/wintershall-dea-withdraws-russia","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Interfax: Carlsberg recognizes USD 1bn (DKK 7bn) impairment of assets in Russia after Baltika was placed under temporary management","url":"https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/99188/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Interfax: Danone deconsolidates its Russian business after temporary management (EUR 200m fixed-asset write-down, about EUR 500m currency adjustments)","url":"https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/93000/","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"refugees_net":{"name":"Refugees' taxes and contributions: Czech Labour Ministry, Polish Ministry of Finance, Lithuanian ministry, OECD and IAB employment data; Poland's Aid Fund (BGK) spending","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/migration-and-ukraine.html","date":"2026-10-18","note":"net = hosting cost - refugees' tax revenue; see research/2026-10/gaps/refugees_net-notes.md","links":[{"title":"MPSV press release 24 Feb 2025: balance of Ukrainian refugees","url":"https://mpsv.gov.cz/cms/documents/960141c9-77fe-a2a0-08eb-0935789a6a7e/TZ_bilance_UA_24022025.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"MPSV press release 23 Feb 2024","url":"https://mpsv.gov.cz/documents/20142/7095934/TZ_bilance_UA_23022024_final.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Polish Ministry of Finance answer to interpellation 15498","url":"https://api.sejm.gov.pl/sejm/term10/interpellations/attachment/ATTDTDHQD/i15498-o1.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Council for Cooperation with Ukraine: Polska Pomoc Ukrainie 2022-2023","url":"https://www.gov.pl/attachment/d423e7e2-300b-480b-9dc2-208572392236","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Bundestag hib: Ukrainians in employment","url":"https://www.bundestag.de/presse/hib/kurzmeldungen-1166450","kind":"primary"},{"title":"OECD/EMN Finland: employment of temporary protection holders","url":"https://emn.fi/wp-content/uploads/Ave-Lauren_OECD_EMNFinland_2024_v2.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"OECD Taxing Wages 2025","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/04/taxing-wages-2025_20d1a01d.html","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Refugees' taxes and contributions: Czech Labour Ministry, Polish Ministry of Finance, Lithuanian ministry, OECD and IAB employment data; Poland's Aid Fund (BGK) spending","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/migration-and-ukraine.html","kind":"primary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"refugees_gain":{"name":"Refugees' work and the industries they work in: Bundesagentur fuer Arbeit (Arbeitsmarkt kompakt, 30 Jan 2026), CBS (Oekraiense vluchtelingen, 1 Nov 2025, Tabel 4), ZUS and PAP (Poland), MPSV (Czechia), OECD-EMN employment rates; OECD STAN output and labour cost","url":"https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Migration/Personen-nach-Staatsangehoerigkeiten/Generische-Publikationen/AM-kompakt-Auswirkungen-Fluchtmigration-Ukraine-Arbeitsmarkt.pdf","date":"2026-10-22","note":"hosting = actual spending - the host's net gain on refugees' work; see research/2026-10/gaps/refugees_gain-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Bundesagentur fuer Arbeit: Auswirkungen der Fluchtmigration aus der Ukraine auf den Arbeitsmarkt (Arbeitsmarkt kompakt, 30 Jan 2026), p. 4","url":"https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Migration/Personen-nach-Staatsangehoerigkeiten/Generische-Publikationen/AM-kompakt-Auswirkungen-Fluchtmigration-Ukraine-Arbeitsmarkt.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"CBS: Oekraiense vluchtelingen, 1 november 2025, werknemers, Tabel 4","url":"https://www.cbs.nl/-/media/_excel/2026/06/november2025---oekraensevluchtelingen---werknemers.xlsx","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Bundesregierung: Bilaterale Unterstuetzungsleistungen fuer die Ukraine und Menschen aus der Ukraine, Stand 31.03.2025, pp. 2-7","url":"https://www.bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/975228/2201464/5f307970470d06878af4f84fff956613e84/liste-ukr-bilaterale-hilfe-data.pdf?download=1","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"PAP Biznes: Poland sees approx. 78 pct working-age Ukrainians employed","url":"https://biznes.pap.pl/wiadomosci/gospodarka/poland-sees-approx-78-pct-working-age-ukrainians-employed","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"European Commission, migrant integration portal: Czech Republic, employment of people displaced from Ukraine","url":"https://migrant-integration.ec.europa.eu/news/czech-republic-employment-and-perception-people-displaced-ukraine_en","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Boersen-Zeitung: Deutsche Ukrainehilfe weniger generoes als von Berlin deklariert (Kiel Institute analysis, 8 Oct 2026; read via the press)","url":"https://www.boersen-zeitung.de/konjunktur-politik/deutsche-ukrainehilfe-weniger-generoes-als-von-berlin-deklariert","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"co_belligerent":{"name":"UN General Assembly resolution ES-11/1 (2 March 2022): deplores the involvement of Belarus in this unlawful use of force against Ukraine","url":"https://documents.un.org/api/symbol/access?s=A/RES/ES-11/1&l=en&t=pdf","date":"2022-03-02","note":"Belarus's refugee hosting is shown as a label, not as support for Ukraine (round 15, raised by the owner)","type":"report","links":[{"title":"UN General Assembly resolution ES-11/1 (2 March 2022): deplores the involvement of Belarus in this unlawful use of force against Ukraine","url":"https://documents.un.org/api/symbol/access?s=A/RES/ES-11/1&l=en&t=pdf","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"published"},"belarus_party":{"name":"Belarus's involvement in Russia's invasion: Council Regulation (EU) 2022/355 of 2 March 2022 (restrictive measures in view of Belarus's involvement in the Russian aggression against Ukraine) and UN General Assembly resolution ES-11/1","url":"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2022/355/oj","date":"2022-03-02","note":"Belarus is shown as a party to the war (round 24b, the owner)","links":[{"title":"Council Regulation (EU) 2022/355 of 2 March 2022, recitals 1-4: Belarus's involvement in the Russian military aggression against Ukraine, which was launched in part from Belarusian territory","url":"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2022/355/oj","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UN General Assembly resolution A/RES/ES-11/1 (2 March 2022), paragraph 10: deplores the involvement of Belarus in this unlawful use of force against Ukraine","url":"https://documents.un.org/api/symbol/access?s=A/RES/ES-11/1&l=en&t=pdf","kind":"primary","key":true}],"type":"report","date_kind":"published"},"north_korea_party":{"name":"North Korea's troops in Russia's war: UN Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team report MSMT/2025/1 and North Korea's own confirmation of 28 April 2025","url":"https://msmt.info/api/file/download/18858","date":"2025-04-28","note":"North Korea is shown as a party to the war (round 29, the owner)","links":[{"title":"MSMT/2025/1 (29 May 2025): Unlawful military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, paragraphs 25-26: over 11,000 troops deployed in late 2024, over 3,000 more in January-March 2025","url":"https://msmt.info/api/file/download/18858","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Kyiv Independent (28 April 2025): North Korea confirms for first time it has deployed troops to fight alongside Russia in Kursk Oblast","url":"https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-confirms-for-first-time-it-has-deployed-troops-to-fight-alongside-russia-in-kursk-oblast/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"NBC News (28 April 2025): North Korea confirms it sent troops to Russia, calling them heroes","url":"https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/north-korea-confirms-sent-troops-russia-calling-heroes-rcna203245","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"published"},"loans_value":{"name":"Loans at economic value: Kiel loan terms (maturity, interest, grace), EU regulations, Ukraine's Eurobond yields; IMF, World Bank, EBRD and CEB lending by shareholding","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/bc5059ba-ef38-4f08-988a-746a03905a6c-Ukraine_Support_Tracker__Release_31.xlsx","date":"2026-10-19","note":"gift = cheaper interest at Ukraine's 2021 rate (6.7%) plus the lender's measured expected loss; high: the war yield of the payout year (15-40%); see How it works","links":[{"title":"Kiel Institute, Ukraine Support Tracker Release 31 workbook (xlsx)","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/bc5059ba-ef38-4f08-988a-746a03905a6c-Ukraine_Support_Tracker__Release_31.xlsx","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Regulation (EU) 2024/792 (Ukraine Facility): no provisioning and no provisioning rate set for its loans","url":"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/792/oj","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Decision (EU) 2022/1628 (exceptional MFA EUR 5bn; repurposed EIB ELM loans EUR 1.59bn): provisioning rate 70%","url":"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dec/2022/1628/oj","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Council ST-5738-2026: Ukraine Support Loan","url":"https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-5738-2026-INIT/en/pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"ICU Weekly Insight 26 Jan 2026 (Eurobond yields)","url":"https://icu.ua/download/8460/ICUWeeklyInsight-20260126-Eng.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"IMF: members' quotas and voting power","url":"https://www.imf.org/en/About/executive-board/members-quotas","kind":"primary"},{"title":"World Bank: IBRD country voting table","url":"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/a16374a6cee037e274c5e932bf9f88c6-0330032021/original/IBRDCountryVotingTable.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"EBRD: shareholders and board of governors","url":"https://www.ebrd.com/shareholders-and-board-of-governors.html","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Ukrinform: Ukraine prices USD 1.25bn 8-year Eurobond at 6.875% (27 Apr 2021)","url":"https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3235891-ukraine-to-issue-eurobonds-worth-125b-finance-ministry.html","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Interfax-Ukraine: USD 500m tap of the 2029 Eurobond at 6.30% (22 Jul 2021)","url":"https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/758134.html","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"ICU Weekly Insight 28 Mar 2022: Eurobond lows of 21-34 cents = yields of 37-427%","url":"https://icu.ua/download/4058/ICUWeeklyInsight-20220328-Eng.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"ICU Weekly Insight 18 Dec 2023: Eurobonds at 24-31 cents","url":"https://icu.ua/download/4446/ICUWeeklyInsight-20231218-Eng.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Eavex Capital Fixed Income Weekly 22 Dec 2025: yields of the restructured Eurobonds","url":"https://www.eavex.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/eavex-fi-weekly-dec-22.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Government of Ukraine: restructuring of USD 20.5bn Eurobonds completed (4 Sep 2024)","url":"https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/ukraina-zavershyla-restrukturyzatsiiu-derzhavnykh-oblihatsii-ta-harantovanykh-derzhavoiu-ievrooblihatsii-na-sumu-205-mlrd-dolariv-ssha","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Government of Ukraine: memorandum with the Group of Creditors of Ukraine, debt service suspended to Feb 2030 (17 Apr 2026)","url":"https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/serhii-marchenko-ta-hrupa-ofitsiinykh-kredytoriv-z-krain-g7-ta-paryzkoho-klubu-pidpysaly-memorandum-pro-vidterminuvannia-platezhiv-z-pohashennia-i-obsluhovuvannia-borhu-ukrainy","kind":"primary"},{"title":"French Treasury: Group of Creditors of Ukraine statement (17 Apr 2026)","url":"https://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/Articles/2026/04/17/group-of-creditors-of-ukraine-statement","kind":"primary"},{"title":"IMF press release 26/66: EFF arrangement for Ukraine (26 Feb 2026)","url":"https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/02/26/pr-26066-ukraine-imf-executive-board-approves-usd-8point1-billion-under-an-eff-arrangement","kind":"primary"},{"title":"European Parliament Legislative Observatory 2022/0213(COD): exceptional MFA, provisioning 70% instead of 9%","url":"https://oeil.europarl.europa.eu/oeil/en/document-summary?id=1710888","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Schlegl, Trebesch and Wright: The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt (NBER w25793)","url":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w25793","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Interfax: Ukraine repaid USD 279.7m to the IMF in February 2026 (6 Mar 2026)","url":"https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/116503/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"FRED (OECD): long-term government bond yields, 10-year, Germany (IRLTLT01DEM156N)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=IRLTLT01DEM156N&cosd=2021-01-01","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Decision (EU) 2022/313 (emergency MFA EUR 1.2bn): loans provisioned under Regulation 2021/947","url":"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dec/2022/313/oj","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Regulation (EU) 2021/947 (NDICI), Article 31(5): provisioning rate 9% for macro-financial assistance","url":"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2021/947/oj","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Decision (EU) 2022/1201 (exceptional MFA EUR 1bn): provisioning rate 70%","url":"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dec/2022/1201/oj","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Regulation (EU) 2022/2463 (MFA+ 2023, EUR 18bn): no provisioning and no provisioning rate set","url":"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2022/2463/oj","kind":"primary"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"money_ledger":{"name":"Where the money for Ukraine was spent: Kiel Ukraine Support Tracker item coding (release 31), CSIS, DSCA notifications, Ukraine's Ministry of Finance, replacement purchases (DoD Inspector General, NAO, government statements)","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/bc5059ba-ef38-4f08-988a-746a03905a6c-Ukraine_Support_Tracker__Release_31.xlsx","date":"2026-10-18","note":"each euro assigned once to the economy where it was spent; see research/2026-10/gaps/money_ledger-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Kiel Institute, Ukraine Support Tracker Release 31 workbook (xlsx)","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/bc5059ba-ef38-4f08-988a-746a03905a6c-Ukraine_Support_Tracker__Release_31.xlsx","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"CSIS: Where is the missing $100 billion in US aid for Ukraine?","url":"https://www.csis.org/analysis/where-missing-100-billion-us-aid-ukraine","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"CRS IF12040: U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine Since 2022","url":"https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/2026-08-31_IF12040_b732b458ee1fe7527c3424284c4b36137ae2ee3f.html","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"DoD OIG DODIG-2025-137: replenishment funds","url":"https://www.dodig.mil/reports.html/Article/4274648/audit-of-controls-over-funds-provided-for-the-replenishment-of-defense-articles/","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Special IG Operation Atlantic Resolve, quarterly report to 30 Jun 2026","url":"https://www.oversight.gov/sites/default/files/documents/reports/2026-08/OAR_Q3_Jun2026_Final_508%20SECURE_0.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Bundesregierung: military deliveries to Ukraine","url":"https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen/krieg-in-der-ukraine/lieferungen-ukraine-2054514","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Ukraine Ministry of Finance (KMU): PEACE project financing","url":"https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/minfin-43-mlrd-dol-ssha-profinansovano-na-priorytetni-vydatky-i-kvartalu-2023-roku-v-ramkakh-proektu-svitovoho-banku-peace","kind":"primary"},{"title":"DSCA: Ukraine Patriot air defense system sustainment","url":"https://www.dsca.mil/Press-Media/Major-Arms-Sales/Article-Display/Article/4290514/ukraine-patriot-air-defense-system-sustainment","kind":"primary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"military_delivered":{"name":"Military aid delivered by 31 August 2026: Kiel Ukraine Support Tracker release 31 allocation rows with delivery lead times by channel; US Department of Defense (Lead IG quarterly report Q1 2026) for USAI","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/bc5059ba-ef38-4f08-988a-746a03905a6c-Ukraine_Support_Tracker__Release_31.xlsx","date":"2026-10-23","note":"aid counted when delivered; Kiel's full allocation is the high end; see research/2026-10/gaps/military_delivered-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Kiel Institute: Ukraine Support Tracker Release 31 workbook (8 Oct 2026), sheet 'Bilateral Assistance, MAIN DATA', military allocation rows","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/bc5059ba-ef38-4f08-988a-746a03905a6c-Ukraine_Support_Tracker__Release_31.xlsx","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Militarnyi: Ukraine received $8.2 billion in U.S. aid under USAI from October through March (Lead IG quarterly report, Q1 2026)","url":"https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukraine-8-2-billion-usai-october-march/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Legis1: Ukraine aid delivery, US committed $68.2B, only 57% delivered (CRS IF12040 and DoD)","url":"https://legis1.com/news/ukraine-aid-delivery-us-committed-682b-to-only-57","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Bundesregierung: Bilaterale Unterstuetzungsleistungen, Stand 31.03.2025, p. 6 (BMVg cash payments EUR 15.07bn)","url":"https://www.bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/975228/2201464/5f307970470d06878af4f84fff956613e84/liste-ukr-bilaterale-hilfe-data.pdf?download=1","kind":"primary","key":true}],"type":"ours","date_kind":"checked"},"pipeline_exemption":{"name":"Russian pipeline crude kept under the EU exemption: Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 (crude embargo exempting pipeline deliveries); the Adria pipeline tests (JANAF, MOL); Czechia's switch to the TAL/IKL route (OSW, April 2025); UN Comtrade 2021 crude imports","url":"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2022/879/oj","date":"2026-10-22","note":"a label only, no number changes; see research/2026-10/gaps/captive_buyers-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 of 3 June 2022 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 (sixth package: crude embargo with a temporary exemption for crude delivered by pipeline) (Official Journal of the European Union)","url":"https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2022/879/oj","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"The Czech Republic no longer depends on Russian oil (TAL-PLUS completed; Litvinov refinery adapted to non-Russian crude) (OSW Centre for Eastern Studies)","url":"https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-04-18/czech-republic-no-longer-depends-russian-oil","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Fact check: Does Hungary have alternatives to the Druzhba pipeline? (Euronews)","url":"https://euronews.com/my-europe/2026/03/31/fact-check-does-hungary-have-alternatives-to-the-druzhba-pipeline","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Adriatic pipeline tests fail to verify stable oil supply for Hungary, Slovakia, MOL says (MarketScreener (Reuters))","url":"https://www.marketscreener.com/news/adriatic-pipeline-tests-fail-to-verify-stable-oil-supply-for-hungary-slovakia-mol-says-ce7d58d2d98afe27","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"UN Comtrade, annual 2021, HS 2709 (crude), 2710 (refined), 2711 (gas) imports, partners World (0) and Russia (643) (UN Statistics Division)","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=496&period=2021&partnerCode=0,643&cmdCode=2709,2710,2711&flowCode=M","kind":"primary","key":true}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"russian_arms":{"name":"Russian arms exports by buyer: Rosoboronexport and FSVTS statements, SIPRI fact sheets, contract reporting (S-400, Su-35, Su-57)","url":"https://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers","date":"2026-10-18","note":"change against expected payments, customs part removed; see research/2026-10/gaps/russian_arms_exports-notes.md","links":[{"title":"SIPRI fact sheet: Trends in international arms transfers, 2025","url":"https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/fs_2603_at_2025.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"SIPRI fact sheet: Trends in international arms transfers, 2024","url":"https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-03/fs_2503_at_2024.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"SIPRI fact sheet: Trends in international arms transfers, 2021","url":"https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/fs_2203_at_2021.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Defense News: Russia claims USD 15bn in 2025 arms exports","url":"https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/02/02/russia-claims-15-billion-in-2025-arms-exports-with-focus-on-africa/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"CRS R46937: Russian arms sales and defense industry","url":"https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R46937.html","kind":"primary"},{"title":"SIPRI Arms Transfers Database","url":"https://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers","kind":"primary"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"wagner":{"name":"Wagner Group / Africa Corps: RUSI (2025), The Sentry, Blood Gold Report, UN Panels of Experts, US Treasury, EU and UK sanctions designations","url":"https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/occasional-papers/wagners-business-model-syria-and-africa-profit-and-patronage","date":"2026-10-23","note":"against the 2021 level; see research/2026-10/gaps/wagner_r40-notes.md","type":"report","links":[{"title":"Wagner Group / Africa Corps: RUSI (2025), The Sentry, Blood Gold Report, UN Panels of Experts, US Treasury, EU and UK sanctions designations","url":"https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/occasional-papers/wagners-business-model-syria-and-africa-profit-and-patronage","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"checked"},"payment_agents":{"name":"Payment agents settling Russia's trade: Bank of Russia balance of payments, Russian Finance Ministry and customs letters on agent commissions, press and sanctions reporting","url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20241014223429/https://cbr.ru/eng/statistics/macro_itm/svs/","date":"2026-10-18","note":"fees kept by residents of the agent's country, against 2021; see research/2026-10/gaps/payment_channels-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Bank of Russia: balance of payments standard components (xlsx)","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/vfs/eng/statistics/credit_statistics/bop/bal_of_payments_standart_e.xlsx","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"The Bell: the rise of Russia's foreign trade middlemen","url":"https://en.thebell.io/the-rise-of-russias-foreign-trade-middlemen/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"TKS.RU: agent remuneration and customs value (Minfin letter 27-01-21/106988)","url":"https://www.tks.ru/columns/vasiliev/2025/03/11/0001/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"US Treasury jy2785: Keremet Bank designated","url":"https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2785","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Elliptic: A7A5 stablecoin","url":"https://www.elliptic.co/insights/a7a5-the-ruble-backed-stablecoin-100-billion-in-transactions/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Method: Payment agents","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-trade-payment-agents","kind":"method"},{"title":"Payment agents settling Russia's trade: Bank of Russia balance of payments, Russian Finance Ministry and customs letters on agent commissions, press and sanctions reporting","url":"https://web.archive.org/web/20241014223429/https://cbr.ru/eng/statistics/macro_itm/svs/","kind":"primary","archived":true,"key":true}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"frozen_reserves":{"name":"Return denied on Russia's frozen central-bank reserves: Euroclear reports, Swiss SECO, EU Commission, G7 and central bank statements; rates per currency and year","url":"https://www.euroclear.com/newsandinsights/en/press.html","date":"2026-10-18","note":"per holding country; Euroclear and Clearstream shared with all EU members; see research/2026-10/gaps/frozen_assets-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Euroclear 2025 results press release","url":"https://www.euroclear.com/newsandinsights/en/press/2026/mr-06-euroclear-delivers-strong-2025-results.html","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Euroclear 2024 results press release","url":"https://www.euroclear.com/newsandinsights/en/press/2026/mr-12-euroclear-delivers-q1-2026-results.html","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Euroclear H1 2026 results press release","url":"https://www.euroclear.com/newsandinsights/en/press/2026/mr-20-euroclear-h1-2026-results.html","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Bank of Russia Annual Report 2021","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/43443/ar_2021_e.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Bank of Russia FX and gold asset management report 2022-1","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/39685/2022-01_res_en.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"EPRS briefing 775908","url":"https://eprs.europarl.europa.eu/contents/publications/EPRS/2025/09/EPRS_BRI(2025)775908.html","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Method: Frozen central-bank reserves","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-russia-state-and-companies-frozen-central-bank-reserves","kind":"method"},{"title":"Return denied on Russia's frozen central-bank reserves: Euroclear reports, Swiss SECO, EU Commission, G7 and central bank statements; rates per currency and year","url":"https://www.euroclear.com/newsandinsights/en/press.html","kind":"primary"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"frozen_private":{"name":"Return lost on Russian private assets frozen abroad: EU Commission, Belgian Treasury, OFSI, Swiss SECO, national authorities, Bank of Russia statements on securities blocked at Euroclear and Clearstream","url":"https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-and-world/sanctions-restrictive-measures/sanctions-adopted-following-russias-military-aggression-against-ukraine_en","date":"2026-10-23","note":"per holding country; the depository part shared with all EU members; see research/2026-10/gaps/private_frozen_r39-notes.md","type":"report","links":[{"title":"Return lost on Russian private assets frozen abroad: EU Commission, Belgian Treasury, OFSI, Swiss SECO, national authorities, Bank of Russia statements on securities blocked at Euroclear and Clearstream","url":"https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-and-world/sanctions-restrictive-measures/sanctions-adopted-following-russias-military-aggression-against-ukraine_en","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"checked"},"svc_ukr":{"name":"Services sold to Ukraine: Eurostat bop_its6_det (partner UA), OECD-WTO BaTiS, National Bank of Ukraine services imports and card spending abroad","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/bop_its6_det/default/table","date":"2026-10-23","note":"against the 2021 level; see research/2026-10/gaps/svc_ukr_r39-notes.md","type":"data","links":[{"title":"Services sold to Ukraine: Eurostat bop_its6_det (partner UA), OECD-WTO BaTiS, National Bank of Ukraine services imports and card spending abroad","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/bop_its6_det/default/table","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"data"},"company_profits":{"name":"Profits of foreign companies in Russia and foreign partners' income from Russian oil and gas: KSE Institute / B4Ukraine #LeaveRussia, OECD direct-investment income by partner, company reports","url":"https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/ENG_What-are-the-financial-results-of-foreign-business-in-Russia-in-2023_final.pdf","date":"2026-10-23","note":"against the 2018-2021 level grown like company taxes; see research/2026-10/gaps/company_profits_r39-notes.md","type":"data","links":[{"title":"Profits of foreign companies in Russia and foreign partners' income from Russian oil and gas: KSE Institute / B4Ukraine #LeaveRussia, OECD direct-investment income by partner, company reports","url":"https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/ENG_What-are-the-financial-results-of-foreign-business-in-Russia-in-2023_final.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"data"},"remittances":{"name":"Remittances from Russia: receiving central banks' transfers by country of origin (CBU, NBKR, CBA, NBG and others), World Bank; relocants' transfers split out","url":"https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/TJK;UZB;KGZ/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT?format=json&date=2017:2025","date":"2026-10-18","note":"labour remittances against the expected level; a marker, not in the totals; see research/2026-10/gaps/remittances-notes.md","links":[{"title":"World Bank API: personal remittances received (BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT)","url":"https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/TJK;KGZ;UZB;ARM;GEO;MDA;AZE;KAZ;BLR/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Bank of Russia: cross-border operations survey 2020","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/collection/collection/file/39301/cross-borderopssurvey%202020_e.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"ADB Asian Development Outlook April 2026: Tajikistan","url":"https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/1135881/taj-ado-april-2026.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"National Bank of Kazakhstan information release","url":"https://nationalbank.kz/en/news/informacionnye-soobshcheniya/16492","kind":"primary"},{"title":"24.kg (NBKR): transfers from Russia to Kyrgyzstan +12%","url":"https://24.kg/english/318729_Money_transfers_from_Russia_to_Kyrgyzstan_increase_by_12_percent_for_year/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Times of Central Asia (CBU): Uzbekistan received USD 14.8bn in 2024","url":"https://timesca.com/uzbekistan-receives-14-8-billion-in-remittances-in-2024/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Remittances from Russia: receiving central banks' transfers by country of origin (CBU, NBKR, CBA, NBG and others), World Bank; relocants' transfers split out","url":"https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/TJK;UZB;KGZ/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT?format=json&date=2017:2025","kind":"primary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"chpl":{"name":"Sales to Russia of Common High Priority List goods: exporters' customs records (Eurostat, UN Comtrade), adjusted toward Russian dispatch records (KSE)","url":"https://www.bis.gov/articles/russia-export-controls-list-common-high-priority-items","date":"2026-10-18","note":"per shipping country; a marker, not in the totals; see research/2026-10/gaps/chpl-notes.md","links":[{"title":"BIS: Common High Priority Items List (CHPL)","url":"https://www.bis.gov/licensing/country-guidance/common-high-priority-items-list-chpl","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"EU: List of Common High Priority Items (PDF)","url":"https://finance.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-09/list-common-high-priority-items_en.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Eurostat Comext DS-045409 SDMX: EU exports to Russia by HS-6","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/comext/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/DS-045409?format=JSON&freq=A&reporter=DE&partner=RU&product=854231&flow=2&indicators=VALUE_IN_EUROS&time=2024","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"UN Comtrade API: exports to Russia of CHP HS-6 codes (example 854231), 2024","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=X&cmdCode=854231,854232,854239","kind":"primary"},{"title":"KSE Institute: Russian CHP imports tracker Q2 2026","url":"https://institute.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/russian_chp_tracker_eng_q2_2026.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"KSE Institute: challenges of export controls enforcement (Jan 2024)","url":"https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Challenges-of-Export-Controls-Enforcement.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Sales to Russia of Common High Priority List goods: exporters' customs records (Eurostat, UN Comtrade), adjusted toward Russian dispatch records (KSE)","url":"https://www.bis.gov/articles/russia-export-controls-list-common-high-priority-items","kind":"primary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"value_kept":{"name":"Genuinely extra share of money earned: production ramp-ups and trade-redirection studies; value kept in the economy (the earlier rule): OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA, 2025 edition)","url":"https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD_TIVA_MAINSH@DF_MAINSH,1.1/EXGR_DVA..BTE+C+C19+C25+C26+C28+C302T309+GTN+H50+I.W.PT_EXGR.A?startPeriod=2018&format=csv","date":"2026-10-18","note":"genuinely extra, per country and kind of earning; see research/2026-10/gaps/value_kept-notes.md","links":[{"title":"OECD TiVA 2025: domestic value added share of gross exports (SDMX)","url":"https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD_TIVA_MAINSH@DF_MAINSH,1.1/EXGR_DVA..BTE+C+C19+C25+C26+C28+C302T309+GTN+H50+I.W.PT_EXGR.A?startPeriod=2018&format=csv","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Federal Register 2024-01220: DFARS domestic content rule","url":"https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2024-02-15/html/2024-01220.htm","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Bank of Finland Bulletin: collapse of trade with Russia had a limited effect on Finnish manufacturing","url":"https://www.bofbulletin.fi/en/2024/3/the-collapse-of-trade-with-russia-has-had-a-limited-effect-on-finnish-manufacturing/","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"H\u00fcrriyet Daily News: Turkish defence local content 83%","url":"https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/defense-industrys-local-content-at-83-pct-gorgun-227711","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Method: The money rule","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-overview-one-rule-for-every-seller","kind":"method"}],"type":"report","date_kind":"checked"},"net_gain_sellers":{"name":"Sellers' net gain per euro of sales (taxes on production plus profit above a normal return of 5% a year above inflation after company tax, plus the country's risk premium): OECD STAN database, 2025 edition, by country and industry; Damodaran country risk premiums","url":"https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD_STAN@DF_STAN_2025,1.0/A..C+C19+C25+C252+C26+C28+C30+C303+C304+H50+I+GTN+K+K65+_T.P1+D29X39+B2A3N+B2A3G+P51C+D1.V.XDC?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2024&format=csv","date":"2026-10-19","note":"economies outside STAN take the OECD median of the industry; services without real estate (STAN GTNXL); round 13's 9% nominal is the method band's old-method bound; see research/2026-10/gaps/net_gain_sellers-notes.md","links":[{"title":"OECD STAN 2025: output, taxes on production, operating surplus and depreciation by industry (SDMX)","url":"https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD_STAN@DF_STAN_2025,1.0/A..C+C19+C25+C252+C26+C28+C30+C303+C304+H50+I+GTN+K+K65+_T.P1+D29X39+B2A3N+B2A3G+P51C+D1.V.XDC?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2024&format=csv","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"OECD STAN 2025: net capital stock at current replacement cost by industry (SDMX)","url":"https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD_STAN@DF_STAN_2025,1.0/A..C+C19+C25+C252+C26+C28+C30+C303+C304+H50+I+GTN+K+K65+_T.N11NA.U.XDC?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2024&format=csv","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"OECD STAN 2025: employees and self-employed by industry (SDMX)","url":"https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD_STAN@DF_STAN_2025,1.0/A..C+C19+C25+C252+C26+C28+C30+C303+C304+H50+I+GTN+K+K65+_T.SAL+SELF+EMP._Z.PS?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2024&format=csv","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Net gain of sellers: method and script","url":"https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/net_gain_sellers-notes.md","kind":"method"},{"title":"OECD STAN 2025: business-economy services without real estate (GTNXL) and real estate (L), flows (SDMX)","url":"https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD_STAN@DF_STAN_2025,1.0/A..GTNXL+L.P1+D29X39+B2A3N+B2A3G+P51C+D1.V.XDC?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2024&format=csv","kind":"primary"},{"title":"OECD STAN 2025: GTNXL and L net capital stock (SDMX)","url":"https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD_STAN@DF_STAN_2025,1.0/A..GTNXL+L.N11NA.U.XDC?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2024&format=csv","kind":"primary"},{"title":"OECD STAN 2025: GTNXL and L employees and self-employed (SDMX)","url":"https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD_STAN@DF_STAN_2025,1.0/A..GTNXL+L.EMP+SAL+SELF._Z.PS?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2024&format=csv","kind":"primary"},{"title":"OECD STAN 2025 data structure: activity code list (GTN = sections G to N incl. real estate; GTNXL = excluding real estate)","url":"https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/dataflow/OECD.STI.PIE/DSD_STAN@DF_STAN_2025/1.0?references=all","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Damodaran, Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums (January 2026)","url":"https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Damodaran, country risk premiums dataset (xlsx, January 2026)","url":"https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/ctryprem.xlsx","kind":"primary"},{"title":"OECD, Measuring Capital - OECD Manual 2009, 2nd edition (UN Statistics Division copy)","url":"https://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/docs/OECD-Capital-e.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"OECD Productivity Statistics, methodological note","url":"https://www.oecd.org/sdd/productivity-stats/OECD-Productivity-Statistics-Methodological-note.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Schreyer, Diewert and Harrison (2005), Cost of capital services and the national accounts (AEG issues paper)","url":"https://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/AEG/papers/m3CapitalServices.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Oulton and Wallis (2015), Capital stocks and capital services: integrated and consistent estimates for the United Kingdom, CEP DP 1342","url":"https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/61697/1/dp1342.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Oulton and Rincon-Aznar (2009), Rates of return and alternative measures of capital input, CEP DP 957","url":"https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp0957.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Barkai, Declining Labor and Capital Shares (2018 working-paper version of the 2020 Journal of Finance paper)","url":"https://fnce.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/BarkaiDecliningLaborCapital-update-20180828.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"De Loecker, Eeckhout and Unger (2020), The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications, QJE","url":"https://crei.cat/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/the-rise-1.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Damodaran, cost of capital by industry, US (January 2026)","url":"https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/wacc.xls","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Damodaran, cost of capital by industry, Europe (January 2026)","url":"https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/waccEurope.xls","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Damodaran, cost of capital by industry, US, January 2023 archive","url":"https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/archives/wacc22.xls","kind":"primary"},{"title":"US Treasury, daily real yield curve rates (2023 file; one per year 2019-2026)","url":"https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2023/all?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Kroll, cost of capital in the current environment, September 2025 update","url":"https://edge.sitecorecloud.io/krollllc17bf0-kroll6fee-proda464-0e9b/media/Kroll-Images/PDFs/september-2025-update-cost-of-capital-in-the-current-environment.pdf","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Oxera, CMA PR24 water redeterminations (Ofwat final determination and CMA figures)","url":"https://www.oxera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/CMA-PR24-water-redeterminations-1.pdf","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Oxera, Ofgem RIIO-3 final determinations","url":"https://www.oxera.com/insights/agenda/articles/riio-3-final-determinations/","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"military_payment":{"name":"How Russia paid for weapons and troops: INSS (via Bloomberg and The Insider), NK News, Bloomberg via Militarnyi; outdated North Korean stock: Ukraine's military intelligence via Reuters","url":"https://theins.press/en/news/290450","date":"2026-10-19","note":"paid deliveries at the seller's net gain, unpaid in full; see research/2026-10/gaps/military_payment_r13-notes.md","links":[{"title":"The Insider: INSS report via Bloomberg, technology and components 80-96% of Russia's compensation to North Korea","url":"https://theins.press/en/news/290450","kind":"secondary","key":true},{"title":"NK News: North Korea likely earned $14.4B from military deals with Russia","url":"https://www.nknews.org/2026/03/north-korea-likely-earned-14-4b-from-military-deals-with-russia-report/","kind":"secondary","key":true},{"title":"Militarnyi: Iran sent Russia $2.7 billion worth of missiles alone (Bloomberg)","url":"https://militarnyi.com/en/blogs/iran-sent-russia-2-7-billion-worth-of-missiles-alone/","kind":"secondary","key":true},{"title":"PRM.ua: half of a North Korean shell shipment outdated (Ukraine's military intelligence to Reuters)","url":"https://prm.ua/en/intelligence-shipments-of-shells-from-north-korea-to-russia-have-halved/","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"press","date_kind":"checked"},"arms_margin_r60":{"name":"The seller's gain on weapons sold to Russia: the Alabuga drone contract and the Shahed's cost (Defense One, The War Zone, Militarnyi), Rheinmetall's ammunition margin, North Korean shell prices (Kyiv Post)","url":"https://www.twz.com/news-features/what-does-a-shahed-136-really-cost","date":"2026-10-29","note":"Iran's and North Korea's gain on what they sold, by item, from price against cost; see research/2026-10/gaps/arms_margin_r60-notes.md","type":"report","links":[{"title":"The seller's gain on weapons sold to Russia: the Alabuga drone contract and the Shahed's cost (Defense One, The War Zone, Militarnyi), Rheinmetall's ammunition margin, North Korean shell prices (Kyiv Post)","url":"https://www.twz.com/news-features/what-does-a-shahed-136-really-cost","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"checked"},"north_korea_r24":{"name":"North Korea's military value to Russia, revalued: INSS (Lim Soo-ho, 16 March 2026) and KIDA (April 2025) estimates read via the press, Friedrich Naumann Foundation (2024, 2025)","url":"https://www.nknews.org/2026/03/north-korea-likely-earned-14-4b-from-military-deals-with-russia-report/","date":"2026-10-22","note":"full value EUR 6.8 / 10.0 / 18.6bn; see research/2026-10/gaps/north_korea_r24-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Korea Times: N. Korea estimated to have earned up to $14.4 bil. from Russia-Ukraine war involvement (INSS report, 16 Mar 2026; read via the press)","url":"https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/amp/foreignaffairs/northkorea/20260316/n-korea-estimated-to-have-earned-up-to-144-bil-from-russia-ukraine-war-involvement-report","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"NK News: North Korea likely earned $14.4B from military deals with Russia (INSS)","url":"https://www.nknews.org/2026/03/north-korea-likely-earned-14-4b-from-military-deals-with-russia-report/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Kyiv Independent: North Korea earns over $20 billion aiding Russia's war effort (KIDA, Apr 2025; read via the press)","url":"https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-earns-over-20-billion-aiding-russias-war-effort-report-says/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Friedrich Naumann Foundation: New FNF study, partnership between Russia and North Korea (Sep 2025)","url":"https://www.freiheit.org/north-and-south-korea/new-fnf-study-partnership-between-russia-and-north-korea","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Al Jazeera: North Korea getting a 'raw deal' on support for Russia's war (FNF report)","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/18/north-korea-getting-a-raw-deal-on-support-for-russias-war-report","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"press","date_kind":"checked"},"japan_lng_r44":{"name":"Japan's imports from Russia by product (Ministry of Finance trade statistics via e-Stat) and Sakhalin-2 long-term LNG contracts (about 5 Mt/yr to Japanese buyers)","url":"https://www.e-stat.go.jp/en/stat-search/files?toukei=00350300&tstat=000001013141","date":"2026-10-25","note":"LNG's no-war band from the contracts, the generic band on the rest; see research/2026-10/gaps/japan_lng_r44-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics of Japan: Commodity by Country (Import), yearly files 2009-2025 and January-August 2026, via e-Stat (statistics code 00350300)","url":"https://www.e-stat.go.jp/en/stat-search/files?page=1&layout=datalist&toukei=00350300&tstat=000001013141&cycle=1&tclass1=000001013180&tclass2=000001013182","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Energy News Africa, 12 December 2024: Japan weighs LNG supply shift as Sakhalin-2 contracts expire (5 Mt/yr contracted of about 6 Mt/yr imported; JERA 0.5 Mt; expiries 2026-2033)","url":"https://energynews.africa/2024/12/12/japan-weighs-lng-supply-shift/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"S&P Global Commodity Insights, 9 May 2025: Japanese Sakhalin 2 buyers agree on price review from April 2024 retrospectively (table of buyers, volumes, expiries)","url":"https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/lng/050925-japanese-sakhalin-2-buyers-agree-on-price-review-from-april-2024-retrospectively","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Japan's imports from Russia by product (Ministry of Finance trade statistics via e-Stat) and Sakhalin-2 long-term LNG contracts (about 5 Mt/yr to Japanese buyers)","url":"https://www.e-stat.go.jp/en/stat-search/files?toukei=00350300&tstat=000001013141","kind":"primary","key":true}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"net_gain_russia":{"name":"Russia's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Russian Finance Ministry, company reports, IEA, Rosstat","url":"https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistics/fedbud/oil/","date":"2026-10-19","note":"see research/2026-10/gaps/net_gain_russia-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Russian Finance Ministry: oil and gas revenues of the federal budget","url":"https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistics/fedbud/oil","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Rosneft 12M 2025 IFRS results","url":"https://rosneft.com/press/releases/item/223842/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"PhosAgro 9M 2025 results","url":"https://www.phosagro.com/press/company/phosagro-reports-operating-and-financial-results-for-9m-2025/","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Polyus FY 2025 results","url":"https://polyus.com/en/media/press-releases/proizvodstvennye-i-finansovye-rezultaty-za-2-polugodie-2025-i-2025-god/","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Rusal interim results H1 2026 (HKEX)","url":"https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0819/2026081900105.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"IEP: Monitoring of Russia's economic outlook 2026-3","url":"https://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/mreoen/mreoen-2026-3-1492.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Method: The net-gain rule","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-overview-the-net-gain-rule","kind":"method"},{"title":"PhosAgro annual report 2023: revenue RUB 440.3bn, EBITDA RUB 183.0bn (41.6%), adjusted 38.2%; 2022 adjusted 46.9%","url":"https://ar2023.phosagro.com/operational-performance/financial-performance","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Rosneft, summary consolidated financial statements 2024 (IFRS), with 2023","url":"https://rosneft.com/upload/site2/12m2024_ENG.pdf","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Novatek, full-year 2023 IFRS results release","url":"https://www.novatek.ru/en/press/releases/index.php?id_4=6314","kind":"primary"},{"title":"PhosAgro, consolidated statement of financial position 31 December 2023 (integrated report 2023)","url":"https://ar2023.phosagro.com/download/ar/en/pdf/additional-information/financial-statements_financial-position.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Nornickel, annual report 2023, consolidated IFRS statements 2021-2023","url":"https://ar2023.nornickel.ru/download/ar/en/pdf/parts/additional-information.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Damodaran, Capital expenditures and sales to invested capital by industry, emerging markets (capexemerg.xls, January 2026)","url":"https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/capexemerg.xls","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Damodaran, Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums (January 2026)","url":"https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Russia's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Russian Finance Ministry, company reports, IEA, Rosstat","url":"https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistics/fedbud/oil/","kind":"primary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"net_gain_ukraine":{"name":"Ukraine's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Ukrstat, company reports, KSE Institute","url":"https://stat.gov.ua/en","date":"2026-10-19","note":"see research/2026-10/gaps/net_gain_ukraine-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Ukrstat: Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine 2024 (table 22.12 profitability)","url":"https://stat.gov.ua/sites/default/files/2026-09/yearbook_24e.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"data.gov.ua: profitability of operating activity by economic activity (Derzhstat)","url":"https://data.gov.ua/dataset/afb3d64f-7346-47bf-a9e2-0671629fc1d3","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Kernel Holding annual report FY2025","url":"https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReports/PDF/kernel_2025.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Metinvest annual report 2025, financial review","url":"https://metinvestholding.com/ar2025/uploads/en/financial-review.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Ferrexpo full-year results 2025","url":"https://www.ferrexpo.com/media/yo2jxkc3/ferrexpo-full-year-financial-results-for-2025-combined-for-website.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Export Promotion Office: how Ukraine's goods exports changed in 2025","url":"https://export.gov.ua/news/how-ukraines-goods-exports-changed-in-2025","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Method: The net-gain rule","url":"https://warbalance.org/#view=how&sec=m-overview-the-net-gain-rule","kind":"method"},{"title":"Astarta Holding, annual report 2024 (consolidated statement of financial position)","url":"https://astartaholding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2024-annual-report.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Ukrstat, Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine 2022, tables 14.1 (fixed assets by activity), 15.8 (industrial sales) and 23.5 (sales by activity)","url":"https://stat.gov.ua/sites/default/files/2024-02/%D0%97%D0%B1%D1%96%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%20%D0%A1%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D1%89%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%96%D1%87%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%20%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D0%B8%202022%20%D1%80%D1%96%D0%BA.pdf","kind":"primary"},{"title":"Damodaran, Capital expenditures and sales to invested capital by industry, emerging markets (capexemerg.xls, January 2026)","url":"https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/capexemerg.xls","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Damodaran, Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums (January 2026)","url":"https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"data","date_kind":"data"},"cf_bias_r47":{"name":"Small purchases from Russia: the no-war middle value moved up by the measured bias of 'held flat' (back-tests on rolling origins 2005-2016, CEPII BACI)","date":"2026-10-25","note":"see research/2026-10/gaps/cf_models_r47-notes.md","type":"ours","date_kind":"checked"},"strike_supply_r51":{"name":"Russian oil exports lost to Ukraine's strikes on refineries, ports and the Druzhba pipeline, 2022-2026 (IEA Oil Market Reports, Kpler, KSE Institute, Reuters)","date":"2026-10-25","note":"the no-war level of buyers that wanted Russian fuel is lowered by what strikes kept from them; see research/2026-10/gaps/strike_supply_r51-notes.md","links":[{"title":"IEA Oil Market Report, 13 May 2026: Russian Crude and Product Exports table 2022-2026, port and refinery attack effects","url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/2b89a47b-34a2-40e0-90ff-68f7ccd80715/-13MAY2026__OilMarketReport_publicversion.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"KSE Institute, Russian Oil Tracker, July, August and September 2026 (monthly exports and runs, IEA basis)","url":"https://institute.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/rot_eng_september_2026.pdf","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Kpler: Ukraine's drone campaign pushes Russian refinery runs to 21-year lows (July 2026)","url":"https://www.kpler.com/blog/ukraines-drone-campaign-pushes-russian-refinery-runs-to-21-year-lows","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Kpler: Repeated drone attacks keep Russian refinery runs in check (18 Nov 2025)","url":"https://www.kpler.com/blog/repeated-drone-attacks-keep-russian-refinery-runs-in-check","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Reuters via Hydrocarbon Processing: Russian oil refining capacity idled by drones reaches 14% of total (March 2024)","url":"https://hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2024/03/russian-oil-refining-capacity-idled-by-drones-reaches-14-of-total/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Polskie Radio, Meduza, Al Jazeera: Druzhba flows to Hungary and Slovakia halted and resumed after strikes on Nikolskoye and Unecha (August 2025)","url":"https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7785/artykul/3571430,oil-flows-to-hungary-slovakia-resume-via-druzhba-pipeline-after-attack-outage","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"The Moscow Times: Oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia halted after damage to Druzhba pipeline (16 Feb 2026); Kyiv Post: Kaleykino strike (23 Feb 2026)","url":"https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/16/oil-supplies-to-hungary-and-slovakia-halted-after-damage-to-druzhba-pipeline-a91964","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Wikipedia: 2025-2026 Russian fuel crisis (export bans, capacity offline)","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Russian_fuel_crisis","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Reuters via OilPrice: Russian fuel exports rebound in August but still down 50% from last year (Sept 2026)","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Fuel-Exports-Rebound-in-August-But-Still-Down-50-From-Last-Year.html","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"CREA: September 2025 monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports (product exports -13% m-o-m after strikes)","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/september-2025-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Russian Federal Customs Service via SeaNews: oil product exports 144.3 Mt in 2021 (search summary; page not opened)","url":"https://seanews.ru/en/2022/02/28/en-russian-oil-export-in-2021-products-up","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"report","url":"https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/2b89a47b-34a2-40e0-90ff-68f7ccd80715/-13MAY2026__OilMarketReport_publicversion.pdf","date_kind":"checked"},"forced_ban_r52":{"name":"Russia's 2023 gasoline and diesel export ban: decree No. 1537 (21 Sep 2023), exemptions and the export volumes lost (Reuters/LSEG, Bloomberg/Vortexa, Interfax, Enerdata)","date":"2026-10-25","note":"the no-war level of buyers the ban cut off is lowered by the fuel it kept from them; see research/2026-10/gaps/forced_loss_r52-notes.md","links":[{"title":"Reuters (via Hydrocarbon Processing): Russian seaborne diesel exports fell by 20% in early October, October 2023","url":"https://hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2023/10/russian-seaborne-diesel-exports-fell-by-20-in-early-october/","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Reuters (via Hydrocarbon Processing): Russia lifts gasoline export ban, energy ministry says, November 2023","url":"https://hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2023/11/russia-lifts-gasoline-export-ban-energy-ministry/","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Daryo (citing Reuters): Russia's gasoline exports plummet by 80% in October after the temporary export ban, October 2023","url":"https://daryo.uz/en/2023/10/21/russias-gasoline-exports-plummet-by-80-in-october-impact-of-temporary-export-ban/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Reuters (via Hydrocarbon Processing): Russia's October seaborne diesel exports fall on ban, maintenance, November 2023","url":"https://hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2023/11/russias-october-seaborne-diesel-exports-fall-on-ban-maintenance/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Interfax: Russian government clarifies the fuel export ban (resolution No. 1564: marine fuels, gas oils and middle distillates excluded), 25 September 2023","url":"https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/94866/","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Armenpress: Russia's temporary fuel export ban does not apply to the Eurasian Economic Union countries, February 2024","url":"https://armenpress.am/en/article/1131196","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"report","url":"https://hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2023/10/russian-seaborne-diesel-exports-fell-by-20-in-early-october/","date_kind":"checked"},"forced_druzhba_r52":{"name":"Druzhba south halted 27 January - 23 April 2026 after a Russian strike near Brody (Slovak economy ministry, MOL, Ukraine's foreign ministry; via The Moscow Times, oenergetice.cz, intellinews)","date":"2026-10-25","note":"Hungary's and Slovakia's no-war level of crude is lowered by the 86 days of flow they lost; see research/2026-10/gaps/forced_loss_r52-notes.md","links":[{"title":"The Moscow Times: Druzhba oil flow to Slovakia resumed, officials say, 23 April 2026","url":"https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/04/23/druzhba-oil-flow-to-slovakia-resumed-thursday-officials-say-a92580","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"oEnergetice: MOL resumes receiving oil from Druzhba after three months, April 2026","url":"https://oenergetice.cz/en/oil/mol-resumes-receiving-oil-from-druzhba-after-three-months-with-flows-also-reaching-slovakia","kind":"primary","key":true},{"title":"Pipeline & Gas Journal: Druzhba pipeline oil flows resume to Hungary and Slovakia after outage, April 2026","url":"https://pgjonline.com/news/2026/april/druzhba-pipeline-oil-flows-resume-to-hungary-slovakia-after-outage","kind":"secondary"},{"title":"Wikipedia: 2026 Druzhba pipeline dispute","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Druzhba_pipeline_dispute","kind":"secondary"}],"type":"press","url":"https://oenergetice.cz/en/oil/mol-resumes-receiving-oil-from-druzhba-after-three-months-with-flows-also-reaching-slovakia","date_kind":"checked"},"ua_trade_sym_r60":{"name":"Purchases from Ukraine against what Ukraine could export: Ukraine's exports by product group and partner (UN Comtrade, State Customs Service of Ukraine), ECB exchange rates","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS","date":"2026-10-29","note":"the no-war level of purchases from Ukraine is each buyer's 2021 share of what Ukraine could export that year; see research/2026-10/gaps/ua_trade_sym_r60-notes.md","type":"ours","links":[{"title":"Purchases from Ukraine against what Ukraine could export: Ukraine's exports by product group and partner (UN Comtrade, State Customs Service of Ukraine), ECB exchange rates","url":"https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"checked"},"dangote":{"name":"VOA: Nigeria's Dangote refinery starts diesel, aviation fuel production (January 2024)","url":"https://www.voaafrica.com/a/nigeria-s-dangote-refinery-starts-diesel-aviation-fuel-production/7438591.html","date":"2024-01-12","note":"label only: Nigeria's fall in fuel bought from EU refiners is structural (EU fuel ban, domestic refining)","links":[{"title":"VOA: Nigeria's Dangote refinery starts diesel, aviation fuel production","url":"https://www.voaafrica.com/a/nigeria-s-dangote-refinery-starts-diesel-aviation-fuel-production/7438591.html","kind":"secondary","key":true},{"title":"Hydrocarbon Processing: Nigeria's Dangote refinery starts production after years of delays","url":"https://hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2024/01/nigerias-dangote-refinery-starts-production-after-years-of-delays/","kind":"secondary","key":true}],"type":"press","date_kind":"published"},"hormuz":{"name":"CREA: What the Hormuz crisis has cost fossil-fuel importers, March to August 2026 (Brent 35% above pre-crisis futures; diesel 59%, Asian LNG 75%)","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/what-the-hormuz-crisis-has-cost-fossil-fuel-importers-march-to-august-2026/","date":"2026-10-19","note":"the 2026 price spike came from the Hormuz crisis, not from this war; the money stays in, and the method band values 2026 at 2025 prices (How it works)","type":"report","links":[{"title":"CREA: What the Hormuz crisis has cost fossil-fuel importers, March to August 2026 (Brent 35% above pre-crisis futures; diesel 59%, Asian LNG 75%)","url":"https://energyandcleanair.org/what-the-hormuz-crisis-has-cost-fossil-fuel-importers-march-to-august-2026/","kind":"primary","key":true}],"date_kind":"checked"},"assumptions_r11_gain":{"name":"net-gain shares from official sector profitability (Russia: FNS/Rosstat by OKVED-2 activity; Ukraine: Derzhstat by KVED division), export duties collected and company results","url":"https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_55729/df3929054ebc0ff6d666accad51e6fedca8c75fe/","date":"2026-10-19","note":"proposals applied as listed in the changelog; see research/2026-10/gaps/assumptions_r11_gain-notes.md","links":[{"title":"FNS Russia, Appendix 4 to the tax-audit planning concept: profitability of sold goods and return on assets by OKVED-2 activity, 2021 (Rosstat data; text as published on nalog.gov.ru, reproduced by ConsultantPlus)","url":"https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_55729/df3929054ebc0ff6d666accad51e6fedca8c75fe/","kind":"primary","flows":["paid","rusarms","services","windfall"],"key":true},{"title":"FNS Russia, Appendix 4 to the tax-audit planning concept: profitability of sold goods and return on assets by OKVED-2 activity, 2022 (Rosstat data; text as published on nalog.gov.ru, reproduced by ConsultantPlus)","url":"https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_55729/fa38101ef3a4b9d39c39430271ca1d5c616dfe61/","kind":"primary","flows":["paid","rusarms","services","windfall"],"key":true},{"title":"FNS Russia, Appendix 4 to the tax-audit planning concept: profitability of sold goods and return on assets by OKVED-2 activity, 2023 (Rosstat data; text as published on nalog.gov.ru, reproduced by ConsultantPlus)","url":"https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_55729/295da02404d085de3420ba1b64cace60fbeed002/","kind":"primary","flows":["paid","rusarms","services","windfall"],"key":true},{"title":"FNS Russia, Appendix 4 to the tax-audit planning concept: profitability of sold goods and return on assets by OKVED-2 activity, 2024 (Rosstat data; text as published on nalog.gov.ru, reproduced by ConsultantPlus)","url":"https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_55729/0e9f3c6aeb49362ca20996710a02f80c375b0ef4/","kind":"primary","flows":["paid","rusarms","services","windfall"]},{"title":"FNS Russia, Appendix 4 to the tax-audit planning concept: profitability of sold goods and return on assets by OKVED-2 activity, 2025 (Rosstat data; text as published on nalog.gov.ru, reproduced by ConsultantPlus)","url":"https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_55729/46b5b065d9811c15e161f73df1f433342686dda3/","kind":"primary","flows":["paid","rusarms","services","windfall"]},{"title":"Bank of Russia, foreign trade in services by extended classification, 2021 (63-trade_21.xls)","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/vfs/statistics/credit_statistics/trade/63-trade_21.xls","kind":"primary","flows":["services"]},{"title":"Bank of Russia, foreign trade in services by extended classification, 2022 (63-trade_22.xls)","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/vfs/statistics/credit_statistics/trade/63-trade_22.xls","kind":"primary","flows":["services"]},{"title":"Bank of Russia, foreign trade in services by extended classification, 2023 (63-trade_23.xls)","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/vfs/statistics/credit_statistics/trade/63-trade_23.xls","kind":"primary","flows":["services"]},{"title":"Bank of Russia, foreign trade in services by extended classification, 2024 (63-trade_24.xls)","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/vfs/statistics/credit_statistics/trade/63-trade_24.xls","kind":"primary","flows":["services"]},{"title":"Bank of Russia, foreign trade in services by extended classification, 2025 (63-trade_25.xls)","url":"https://www.cbr.ru/vfs/statistics/credit_statistics/trade/63-trade_25.xls","kind":"primary","flows":["services"]},{"title":"Rostec press release (May 2022), Chemezov's 2021 report to the President: revenue RUB 2.06trn, EBITDA RUB 334.9bn, consolidated net profit RUB 163.5bn (+47%)","url":"https://www.rostec.ru/upload/iblock/a3c/mwb8hb61alrpziupuajwnq345w4z3nb1.pdf","kind":"primary","flows":["rusarms"]},{"title":"Vedomosti, 30 Jul 2024: Chemezov presented Rostec report","url":"https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2024/07/30/1052875-chemezov-predstavil-putinu-otchet","kind":"secondary","flows":["rusarms"]},{"title":"The Moscow Times (ru), 15 Jul 2026: Rostec profit fell 42% to RUB 76.4 bn","url":"https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/15/deneg-unas-nemnogo-glava-krupneishego-promishlennogo-gosholdinga-rossii-pozhalovalsya-naobval-pribili-a200924","kind":"secondary","flows":["rusarms"]},{"title":"Rosoboronexport JSC filed RAS accounts (FNS/Rosstat data, via audit-it.ru): 2014 EBIT RUB 10.35bn, return on sales 58.2%","url":"https://www.audit-it.ru/buh_otchet/7718852163_ao-rosoboroneksport","kind":"primary","flows":["rusarms"]},{"title":"Kremlin, 27 Jan 2015 (Commission for Military-Technical Cooperation): 2014 arms sales over USD 15bn for all exporters; Rosoboronexport's own deliveries USD 13.2bn (its 2014 annual report)","url":"http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47530","kind":"primary","flows":["rusarms"]},{"title":"Kommersant Vlast, 5 Feb 2007: Oruzhie massovogo poglosheniya","url":"https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/739784","kind":"secondary","flows":["rusarms"]},{"title":"Government Decree No. 1538 of 21 Sep 2023 on export duty rates (exchange-rate-linked duties from 1 Oct 2023; official publication, pravo.gov.ru). 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