War Balance

Is Pakistan helping Russia or Ukraine? The net is essentially zero

Pakistan's support for Ukraine since 2022: −€66m (−0.02% of one year's GDP: its aid, refugee hosting, private donations and its other parts of support, net of money flowing back). Russia kept €172m (0.05% of GDP) more than without the war. The net is 0.07% of a year's GDP toward Russia (likely from 0.20% toward Russia to 0.16% toward Ukraine; essentially zero).

Open in the map →

Toward Russia by

0.07% of a year's GDP since 2022

essentially zero

likely from 0.20% toward Russia to 0.16% toward Ukraine · €238m · ≈ 0.02%/yr

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war + raised Russia's earnings from trade = 0.07% of GDP toward Russia. Mostly toward Russia (mostly more bought from Russia).

Chance toward Russia: 70%; 100% of the other method choices agree.

Support for Ukraine

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war; below zero by

0.02%

€66m

likely from 0.08% below zero to <0.01% above zero essentially zero

Russia's earnings from trade

Raised Russia's earnings from trade by

0.05%

€172m

likely from 0.17% toward Russia to 0.17% toward Ukraine essentially zero

Russia kept €172m (0.05% of GDP) more than without the war.

The two lines add up to Russia's earnings from trade; their ranges do not.

What decides this number

Chance toward Russia: 70%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Near zero, and not certain mostly because of how much it would have bought from Russia without the war. Here the size of the net is the finding, not its direction: likely from 0.20% toward Russia to 0.16% toward Ukraine.

What makes up the number

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war; below zero by 0.02% · €66m

Ukraine kept less from sales hereC−0.02%€67m
Its share of IMF and World Bank loansC+<0.01%€6m
Pakistan kept part of others' aid, spent hereD−<0.01%€5m

Raised Russia's earnings from trade by 0.05% · €172m

Russia kept more from fuel and goods sold hereC−0.05%€168m
Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countriesC−0.02%€64m
Russia kept less: fuel sold below no-war pricesC+0.02%€52m
Pakistan kept less from selling to RussiaC+<0.01%€5m
Russia kept less from weapons sold hereD+<0.01%€4m
Its firms paid Russia more taxD−<0.01%€1m

+ toward Ukraine, − toward Russia (in support for Ukraine, − is money it earned back or bought less from Ukraine than without the war). Letters: A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate, D rough indication.

By year

The year with the largest net amount was 2022: −€0.27bn. The yearly amounts are small against the range of the total, so their side from one year to the next is not a finding.

YearSupport for UkraineTrade: toward Ukraine (+) / toward Russia (−)NetNet since 2022
2022−€19m−€256m−€275m−0.08%
2023−€7m−€57m−€64m−0.10%
2024−€6m−€12m−€19m−0.11%
2025−€22m+€84m+€62m−0.09%
2026*−€12m+€70m+€58m−0.07%

Each year's amount: + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia. *2026: to August.

Support for Ukraine by type

Pakistan's support for Ukraine, 2022 to August 2026, split by type. The parts add up to the map's figure.

Military aid–
Financial aid (incl. IMF and World Bank share)€6mof which its share of IMF and World Bank lending: €6m
Private donations and purchases−€67m
Money flowing back−€6msubtracted
Support for Ukraine (the map's figure)−€66m

Quality of the split: D No military aid on record outside Kiel's tracker; this does not mean that no military aid was given.

Military aid to Ukraine, every country →

Trade with Russia before and after

It bought €0.42bn from Russia in 2021 and €0.15bn in 2025 (−64%). It sold €0.15bn to Russia in 2021 and €60m in 2025 (−59%). Before the war (2018–2021), fuel was 14.2% of what it bought from Russia. For Pakistan: €52m paid below no-war prices, most of it in 2026, 13% of it on gas contracts. Most of this is fuel and food bought from Russia. Fuel is fungible and sold through many traders: the figure reflects what this economy bought, not a policy toward Russia or Ukraine. These are sales values at each year's prices; the totals count what the seller kept on them.

What it bought from Russia, by fuel

Pakistan's purchases from Russia, 2022 to August 2026, by fuel: by its own customs records (CIF), on the map's basis (the Russian border price, FOB) and by CREA's tracker (ship data). The map's figure is the total on the map's basis.

FuelCustoms (CIF)Map basis (FOB)Tracker (CREA)Quality
Crude oil€0.45bn€0.27bnrange €0.20bn to €0.35bn€0.53bnC (estimate)
Oil products<€1m€0.29bnrange €0.19bn to €0.43bn€75mC (estimate)
Coal€53m€50mrange €38m to €69m€24mC (estimate)
Other goods€2.1bn€1.8bn–
All goods€2.6bn€2.4bn–

Quality by year: 2022: A, 2023: C, 2024: C, 2025: A, 2026, January to August: C. C and D are estimates.

Every buyer, by fuel →

Sanctions on Russia

We found no sanctions of Pakistan's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Pakistan. Checked 27 October 2026.

Every country's sanctions on Russia →

The cost of switching away from Russian energy

Replacing Russian energy cost it about €61m extra from 2022 (0.02% of one year's GDP). Russian oil bought at a war-time discount saved it about €93m. Neither is in the totals: shown for information.

Money flowing back from the war effort

€0.18bn of aid and of Ukraine's purchases was spent in Pakistan; what its firms kept of it, €6m, is taken off its support.

Compared with its neighbours and groups

Its direction is essentially zero, so the map's ranking gives it no number.

Neighbours by land

CountryNet, % of GDP
Pakistan−0.07%−€0.24bnessentially zero
China−0.75%−€128bnvery likely · >99%
Afghanistan−1.5%−€0.24bnvery likely · 98%
India−2.2%−€70.6bnvery likely · >99%

How the number is backed

27 sources back its parts: 5 official statistics, 6 research reports, 0 press reports and 2 of this project's own estimates, plus 14 method inputs. By size, 0% of its parts are reported or measured (A–B), 97% modelled (C) and 3% rough indications (D).

Data coverage

Sources, by part

Russia kept more from fuel and goods sold here C

Ukraine kept less from sales here C

Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries C

Russia kept less: fuel sold below no-war prices C

Its share of IMF and World Bank loans C

Every source of its parts (27)

Questions

Is Pakistan helping Russia?

In money terms the net is −0.07% of one year's GDP (likely from 0.20% toward Russia to 0.16% toward Ukraine; essentially zero). Chance toward Russia: 70%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Russia kept €172m (0.05% of GDP) more than without the war. Most of this is fuel and food bought from Russia. Fuel is fungible and sold through many traders: the figure reflects what this economy bought, not a policy toward Russia or Ukraine. The number counts money: weapons at their money value; votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.

Pakistan–Russia relations: what do the numbers show?

In money terms: it bought €0.15bn from Russia in 2025 (€0.42bn in 2021), and sold €60m to Russia; its support for Ukraine since 2022 is €66m; and the net, with what Russia kept from trade against a world without the war, is −0.07% of one year's GDP (likely from 0.20% toward Russia to 0.16% toward Ukraine; essentially zero). Diplomacy, security ties and politics are not in these numbers.

Does Pakistan trade with Russia?

It bought €0.15bn from Russia in 2025 (€0.42bn in 2021), and sold €60m to Russia. What counts here is the change in what Russia kept from that trade (taxes and profit, not sales) against a world without the war: Russia kept €172m (0.05% of GDP) more than without the war.

Why is Pakistan's net so small?

Its net is essentially zero: −0.07% of one year's GDP (likely from 0.20% toward Russia to 0.16% toward Ukraine). Near zero, and not certain mostly because of how much it would have bought from Russia without the war.

How does Pakistan compare with its neighbours?

The net as a share of one year's GDP: Pakistan −0.07%, China −0.75%, Afghanistan −1.5%, India −2.2%.

Where do the numbers for Pakistan come from?

27 sources back its parts, 5 of them official statistics. By part: Russia kept more from fuel and goods sold here: UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine; Ukraine kept less from sales here: UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine; Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: Fuel made from Russian crude, measured from the buyers' own records: India's and the buyers' monthly customs (UN Comtrade), Türkiye's crude by origin (EPDK), EU refiners' Russian crude (Eurostat), US imports (EIA), Cyprus's and Malta's energy imports by consigning country (Eurostat), Australian Petroleum Statistics. The map's panel lists every one, with its documents.

Does Pakistan have sanctions on Russia?

We found no sanctions of Pakistan's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Pakistan.

Nearby in the ranking

Essentially zero

  1. Macao−0.06%Essentially zero · −€24m · 73%
  2. Botswana−0.07%Essentially zero · −€12m · 83%
  3. Uruguay−0.07%Essentially zero · −€50m · 63%
  4. Pakistan−0.07%Essentially zero · −€238m · 70%
  5. Uganda−0.07%Essentially zero · −€33m · 59%
  6. Cambodia−0.08%Essentially zero · −€31m · 61%
  7. DR Congo−0.09%Essentially zero · −€63m · 64%

More about Pakistan

Its parts, ranked against other countries

Every country, by year

27 sources in all; the map's panel lists every one, with its documents. Open in the map · How this is measured

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Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/country/pakistan/