War Balance
Greenland's support for Ukraine since 2022: <€1m (<0.01% of one year's GDP: its aid, refugee hosting, private donations and its other parts of support, net of money flowing back). Russia kept €46m (1.5% of GDP) less than without the war, mostly less tax paid in Russia by companies (€29m of €46m). The net is 1.5% of a year's GDP toward Ukraine (likely from 3.0% toward Russia to 4.4% toward Ukraine; likely toward Ukraine · 67%).
Leaning toward Ukraine by
1.5% of a year's GDP since 2022
likely toward Ukraine · 67%
likely from 3.0% toward Russia to 4.4% toward Ukraine · €46m · ≈ 0.32%/yr
Earned more from Ukraine's war effort than it gave + cut Russia's earnings from trade = 1.5% of GDP toward Ukraine. Mostly less kept by Russia from trade.
Chance toward Ukraine: 67%; 100% of the other method choices agree.
Support for Ukraine
Earned more from Ukraine's war effort than it gave, by
<0.01%
<€1m
likely from 0.04% below zero to <0.01% above zero essentially zero
Russia's earnings from trade
Probably cut Russia's earnings from trade by
1.5%
€46m
likely from 3.0% toward Russia to 4.4% toward Ukraine likely toward Ukraine · 67%
Russia kept €46m (1.5% of GDP) less than without the war, mostly less tax paid in Russia by companies (€29m of €46m).
The two lines add up to Russia's earnings from trade; their ranges do not.
Chance toward Ukraine: 67%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Not certain, mostly because of the uncertain size of one part: Greenland's companies made less profit in Russia.
Earned more from Ukraine's war effort than it gave, by <0.01% · <€1m
Probably cut Russia's earnings from trade by 1.5% · €46m
| Its firms paid Russia less taxD | +0.93% | €29m |
| Greenland's companies made less profit in RussiaD | +0.57% | €18m |
+ toward Ukraine, − toward Russia (in support for Ukraine, − is money it earned back or bought less from Ukraine than without the war). Letters: A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate, D rough indication.
The year with the largest net amount was 2025: +€15m.
| Year | Support for Ukraine | Trade: toward Ukraine (+) / toward Russia (−) | Net | Net since 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | €0 | +€5m | +€5m | +0.15% |
| 2023 | −<€1m | +€9m | +€9m | +0.44% |
| 2024 | −<€1m | +€8m | +€8m | +0.70% |
| 2025 | −<€1m | +€15m | +€15m | +1.2% |
| 2026* | −<€1m | +€10m | +€10m | +1.5% |
Each year's amount: + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia. *2026: to August.
It bought <€1m from Russia in 2021 and <€1m in 2025. It sold €66m to Russia in 2021 and €20m in 2025 (−70%). These are sales values at each year's prices; the totals count what the seller kept on them.
Greenland is a territory of Denmark. We did not check whether the sanctions of Denmark on Russia extend to it. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Greenland itself; it names Denmark. Checked 27 October 2026.
3 sources back its parts: 1 official statistics, 1 research reports, 0 press reports and 0 of this project's own estimates, plus 1 method inputs. By size, 0% of its parts are reported or measured (A–B), 0% modelled (C) and 100% rough indications (D). No data: Purchases from Ukraine · Russian oil bought via other countries · Fuel and goods bought from Russia · Sales to Russia · War-time fuel prices. There is no observation of its own for the war years, so these count as zero. Why
In money terms the net is +1.5% of one year's GDP (likely from 3.0% toward Russia to 4.4% toward Ukraine; likely toward Ukraine · 67%). Chance toward Ukraine: 67%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Russia kept €46m (1.5% of GDP) less than without the war, mostly less tax paid in Russia by companies (€29m of €46m). The number counts money: weapons at their money value; votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.
3 sources back its parts, 1 of them official statistics. By part: Its firms paid Russia less tax: Company taxes in Russia: KSE checked against company reports (Raiffeisen, UniCredit, OTP, PepsiCo) and Bundesbank reinvested earnings; Greenland's companies made less profit in Russia: Profits of foreign companies in Russia and foreign partners' income from Russian oil and gas: KSE Institute / B4Ukraine #LeaveRussia, OECD direct-investment income by partner, company reports. The map's panel lists every one, with its documents.
Greenland is a territory of Denmark. We did not check whether the sanctions of Denmark on Russia extend to it. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Greenland itself; it names Denmark.
Leaning toward Ukraine
3 sources in all; the map's panel lists every one, with its documents. Open in the map · How this is measured
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Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/country/greenland/