War Balance
Is Uganda helping Russia or Ukraine? The net is essentially zero
Uganda's support for Ukraine since 2022: −€3m (<0.01% of one year's GDP: its aid, refugee hosting, private donations and its other parts of support, net of money flowing back). Russia kept €30m (0.07% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€29m of €30m). The net is 0.07% of a year's GDP toward Russia (likely from 0.36% toward Russia to 0.82% toward Ukraine; essentially zero).
Toward Russia by
0.07% of a year's GDP since 2022
essentially zero
likely from 0.36% toward Russia to 0.82% toward Ukraine · €33m · ≈ 0.02%/yr
Bought less from Ukraine than without the war + raised Russia's earnings from trade = 0.07% of GDP toward Russia. Mostly toward Russia (mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere).
Chance toward Russia: 59%; 100% of the other method choices agree.
Support for Ukraine
Bought less from Ukraine than without the war; below zero by
<0.01%
€3m
likely from 0.06% below zero to <0.01% above zero essentially zero
Russia's earnings from trade
Raised Russia's earnings from trade by
0.07%
€30m
likely from 0.35% toward Russia to 0.83% toward Ukraine essentially zero
Russia kept €30m (0.07% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€29m of €30m).
- Russia's gain: Russia kept 0.06% of GDP more (€26m; likely from 0.34% toward Russia to 0.84% toward Ukraine)
- Uganda's own gain from trade with Russia: Uganda kept <0.01% of GDP more from its trade with Russia (€4m; likely from 0.04% toward Russia to <0.01% toward Ukraine)
The two lines add up to Russia's earnings from trade; their ranges do not.
What decides this number
Chance toward Russia: 59%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Not certain, mostly because of how much it would have bought from Russia without the war. Here the size of the net is the finding, not its direction: likely from 0.36% toward Russia to 0.82% toward Ukraine.
What makes up the number
Bought less from Ukraine than without the war; below zero by <0.01% · €3m
| Ukraine kept less from sales hereC | −<0.01% | €3m |
Raised Russia's earnings from trade by 0.07% · €30m
| Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold hereC | +0.06% | €30m |
| Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countriesDown estimate | −0.06% | €29m |
| Russia kept more from war-time fuel pricesC | −0.06% | €29m |
| Uganda kept more from selling to RussiaC | −<0.01% | €4m |
| Russia kept less from weapons sold hereD | +<0.01% | €2m |
+ toward Ukraine, − toward Russia (in support for Ukraine, − is money it earned back or bought less from Ukraine than without the war). Letters: A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate, D rough indication.
By year
The year with the largest net amount was 2024: −€17m. The yearly amounts are small against the range of the total, so their side from one year to the next is not a finding.
| Year | Support for Ukraine | Trade: toward Ukraine (+) / toward Russia (−) | Net | Net since 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | −<€1m | −<€1m | −€1m | −<0.01% |
| 2023 | +<€1m | −€13m | −€13m | −0.03% |
| 2024 | −€1m | −€16m | −€17m | −0.06% |
| 2025 | −€1m | −€7m | −€8m | −0.08% |
| 2026* | −€1m | +€6m | +€5m | −0.07% |
Each year's amount: + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia. *2026: to August.
Support for Ukraine by type
Uganda's support for Ukraine, 2022 to August 2026, split by type. The parts add up to the map's figure.
| Military aid | – |
| Private donations and purchases | −€3m |
| Support for Ukraine (the map's figure) | −€3m |
Quality of the split: D No military aid on record outside Kiel's tracker; this does not mean that no military aid was given.
Trade with Russia before and after
It bought €75m from Russia in 2021 and €0.12bn in 2025 (+65%). It sold €11m to Russia in 2021 and €0.12bn in 2025 (+1049%). For Uganda: €29m paid above no-war prices, most of it in 2022, 71% of it on gas contracts. Most of this is fuel and food bought from Russia. Fuel is fungible and sold through many traders: the figure reflects what this economy bought, not a policy toward Russia or Ukraine. These are sales values at each year's prices; the totals count what the seller kept on them.
Sanctions on Russia
We found no sanctions of Uganda's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Uganda. Checked 27 October 2026.
Compared with its neighbours and groups
Its direction is essentially zero, so the map's ranking gives it no number.
Neighbours by land
How the number is backed
20 sources back its parts: 2 official statistics, 2 research reports, 0 press reports and 4 of this project's own estimates, plus 12 method inputs. By size, 0% of its parts are reported or measured (A–B), 67% modelled (C) and 33% rough indications (D).
Data coverage
- Aid to Ukraine: estimated no record found: 0, with a small upper bound
- Private donations: estimated national totals or a GDP-based estimate
- Services trade with Russia: estimated Eurostat, OECD-WTO and Bank of Russia data
- Refugee hosting: reported no refugees from Ukraine recorded
- Bought from Russia: reported reported 2021-2025
- Sold to Russia: estimated partner data plus an estimate of goods reaching Russia via third countries
- Bought from Ukraine: reported reported 2021-2025
- Sold to Ukraine: reported reported 2021-2025
- Energy switching cost: estimated modelled per fuel and month
- Company taxes in Russia: reported no companies operating in Russia found
Sources, by part
Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here C
- official UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine
- own estimate Small purchases from Russia: the no-war middle value moved up by the measured bias of 'held flat' (back-tests on rolling origins 2005-2016, CEPII BACI)
Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries D
Russia kept more from war-time fuel prices C
- own estimate War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE)
- research Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports
Uganda kept more from selling to Russia C
- official GDP gaps (UNSD, UN WPP, CEPAL), Russia's import gap by country of origin, Hong Kong gold composition
Ukraine kept less from sales here C
Every source of its parts (20)
- official UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine
- method input Price levels of what was traded with Russia and Ukraine (2019-2021 = 1): each buyer's own customs unit values per fuel and for other goods, benchmark indices (CREA, World Bank, Eurostat), gas contract prices; oil at the Russian port (FOB), outliers screened
- method input Checks against national and trade statistics: UAE gold and fuel, undisclosed aid, Russia's import-statistics gap, trend windows, border-priced imports
- method input Expected trade without the war: models back-tested on 2008, 2013 and 2016 against holding 2021 flat (UN Comtrade, World Bank WDI and commodity prices, UN voting)
- method input Ranges of the 2022-2026 total measured on the back-tests' cumulative errors; own bands tested on their own history for Mongolia, Yemen, Tajikistan, Moldova, Türkiye, Kenya, Peru and French Polynesia
- method input Russia's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Russian Finance Ministry, company reports, IEA, Rosstat
- own estimate Small purchases from Russia: the no-war middle value moved up by the measured bias of 'held flat' (back-tests on rolling origins 2005-2016, CEPII BACI)
- method input net-gain shares from official sector profitability (Russia: FNS/Rosstat by OKVED-2 activity; Ukraine: Derzhstat by KVED division), export duties collected and company results
- method input refugee hosting budgets, remittance mirror shares, national donation totals, Hong Kong gold 2026 and OECD ITIC freight margins
- own estimate Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it
- own estimate War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE)
- research Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports
- official GDP gaps (UNSD, UN WPP, CEPAL), Russia's import gap by country of origin, Hong Kong gold composition
- method input Genuinely extra share of money earned: production ramp-ups and trade-redirection studies; value kept in the economy (the earlier rule): OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA, 2025 edition)
- method input Sellers' net gain per euro of sales (taxes on production plus profit above a normal return of 5% a year above inflation after company tax, plus the country's risk premium): OECD STAN database, 2025 edition, by country and industry; Damodaran country risk premiums
- method input money-rule and cost-view constants from data: firm-level redirection studies, Kiel item coding of EU-level military aid, lenders' funding costs, EU, UK and Canadian estimates of duties waived
- method input Expected trade with Ukraine without the war: rolling back-tests on Ukraine's own history and on analogue partners (IMF WEO vintages, IMF DOTS)
- method input Ukraine's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Ukrstat, company reports, KSE Institute
- own estimate Purchases from Ukraine against what Ukraine could export: Ukraine's exports by product group and partner (UN Comtrade, State Customs Service of Ukraine), ECB exchange rates
- research Russian arms exports by buyer: Rosoboronexport and FSVTS statements, SIPRI fact sheets, contract reporting (S-400, Su-35, Su-57)
Questions
Is Uganda helping Russia?
In money terms the net is −0.07% of one year's GDP (likely from 0.36% toward Russia to 0.82% toward Ukraine; essentially zero). Chance toward Russia: 59%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Russia kept €30m (0.07% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€29m of €30m). Most of this is fuel and food bought from Russia. Fuel is fungible and sold through many traders: the figure reflects what this economy bought, not a policy toward Russia or Ukraine. The number counts money: weapons at their money value; votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.
Why is Uganda's net so small?
Its net is essentially zero: −0.07% of one year's GDP (likely from 0.36% toward Russia to 0.82% toward Ukraine). Not certain, mostly because of how much it would have bought from Russia without the war.
How does Uganda compare with its neighbours?
The net as a share of one year's GDP: Rwanda +0.55%, Uganda −0.07%, DR Congo −0.09%, Kenya −0.31%, Tanzania −1.1%.
Does Uganda trade with Russia?
It bought €0.12bn from Russia in 2025 (€75m in 2021), and sold €0.12bn to Russia. What counts here is the change in what Russia kept from that trade (taxes and profit, not sales) against a world without the war: Russia kept €30m (0.07% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€29m of €30m).
Where do the numbers for Uganda come from?
20 sources back its parts, 2 of them official statistics. By part: Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here: UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine; Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it; Russia kept more from war-time fuel prices: War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE). The map's panel lists every one, with its documents.
Does Uganda have sanctions on Russia?
We found no sanctions of Uganda's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Uganda.
Nearby in the ranking
Essentially zero
- Botswana−0.07%Essentially zero · −€12m · 83%
- Uruguay−0.07%Essentially zero · −€50m · 63%
- Pakistan−0.07%Essentially zero · −€238m · 70%
- Uganda−0.07%Essentially zero · −€33m · 59%
- Cambodia−0.08%Essentially zero · −€31m · 61%
- DR Congo−0.09%Essentially zero · −€63m · 64%
- Bahamas−0.10%Essentially zero · −€13m · 68%
More about Uganda
Its parts, ranked against other countries
Every country, by year
20 sources in all; the map's panel lists every one, with its documents. Open in the map · How this is measured
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Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/country/uganda/