War Balance

Ranking: every country's money toward Ukraine or Russia since 2022

192 countries ranked by the net as a share of one year's GDP, grouped by the chance of the direction, as in the map's ranking. Belarus and North Korea are parties to the war and not ranked.

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The ranking measures money: aid to Ukraine and the change in what Russia keeps from trade, against a world without the war. Weapons count at their money value: aid at market value when delivered, weapons and troops sent to Russia at the seller's gain where Russia paid and in full where it did not. Votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.

The chance of the direction comes from simulating every part's likely range together, correlated where parts share inputs. Very likely: at least 95%, every other method choice agrees and the likely range stays on that side. Likely: at least 65%. Too close to call: below that. Near zero: the likely range and the method band stay within ±0.5% of a year's GDP. Essentially zero: not very likely and the middle value is under 0.1% of a year's GDP, or the whole likely range is. Direction words follow the middle value; where the simulations lean the other way, it says so.

Toward Ukraine · 32

  1. 1.Lithuania+11.9%+€8.8bn
  2. 2.Estonia+10.8%+€4.1bn
  3. 3.Finland+8.5%+€23.1bn
  4. 4.Moldova+6.9%+€1.1bn
  5. 5.Latvia+5.6%+€2.2bn
  6. 6.Netherlands+5.1%+€54.1bn
  7. 7.Poland+5.0%+€37.8bn
  8. 8.Denmark+4.0%+€15.5bn
  9. 9.Sweden+3.7%+€20.1bn
  10. 10.Germany+3.7%+€153bn
  11. 11.Cyprus+3.6%+€1.2bn
  12. 12.Luxembourg+3.5%+€2.9bn
  13. 13.Belgium+3.4%+€20.3bn
  14. 14.Norway+2.9%+€14.8bn
  15. 15.Romania+2.8%+€8.9bn
  16. 16.Czechia+2.6%+€8.0bn
  17. 17.United Kingdom+1.8%+€58.4bn
  18. 18.Ireland+1.8%+€9.5bn
  19. 19.Italy+1.6%+€34.4bn
  20. 20.France+1.6%+€43.6bn
  21. 21.Croatia+1.5%+€1.2bn
  22. 22.Portugal+1.3%+€3.5bn
  23. 23.Malta+1.2%+€248m
  24. 24.Iceland+1.2%+€348m
  25. 25.Spain+1.1%+€16.6bn
  26. 26.South Korea+1.1%+€18.1bn
  27. 27.Switzerland+1.0%+€8.7bn
  28. 28.Canada+0.51%+€10.6bn
  29. 29.United States+0.51%+€132bn
  30. 30.Nigeria+0.42%+€1.8bn
  31. 31.Japan+0.30%+€12.2bn
  32. 32.Chile+0.04%+€107m

Leaning toward Ukraine · 18

  1. Bulgaria+3.3%+€3.1bn · likely toward Ukraine · 95%
  2. Brunei+3.1%+€453m · likely toward Ukraine · 85%
  3. Lebanon+2.8%+€578m · likely toward Ukraine · 84%
  4. Turkmenistan+1.5%+€574m · likely toward Ukraine · 83%
  5. Kosovo+1.1%+€106m · likely toward Ukraine · 91%
  6. Cameroon+0.99%+€452m · likely toward Ukraine · 94%
  7. Slovenia+0.66%+€417m · likely toward Ukraine · 88%
  8. Bosnia and Herzegovina+0.56%+€142m · likely toward Ukraine · 85%
  9. Rwanda+0.55%+€74m · likely toward Ukraine · 90%
  10. Austria+0.45%+€2.1bn · likely toward Ukraine · 68%
  11. Bolivia+0.44%+€217m · likely toward Ukraine · 82%
  12. Cuba+0.37%+€78m · likely toward Ukraine · 65%
  13. Ecuador+0.37%+€411m · likely toward Ukraine · 89%
  14. Montenegro+0.37%+€25m · likely toward Ukraine · 91%
  15. Angola+0.25%+€261m · likely toward Ukraine · 92%
  16. Honduras+0.24%+€76m · likely toward Ukraine · 74%
  17. Colombia+0.15%+€524m · likely toward Ukraine · 95%
  18. Laos+0.14%+€20m · likely toward Ukraine · 89%

Near zero · 2

  1. Dominican Republic+0.13%+€147m · near zero · 86% toward Ukraine
  2. Venezuela−0.11%−€109m · near zero · 71% toward Russia

Essentially zero · 46

  1. Taiwan+0.09%+€659m · essentially zero
  2. Palestine+0.09%+€15m · essentially zero
  3. Gabon+0.08%+€16m · essentially zero
  4. Panama+0.08%+€63m · essentially zero
  5. Thailand+0.08%+€393m · essentially zero
  6. Greece+0.08%+€175m · essentially zero
  7. Peru+0.07%+€187m · essentially zero
  8. Albania+0.07%+€16m · essentially zero
  9. Trinidad and Tobago+0.06%+€16m · essentially zero
  10. Mali+0.06%+€14m · essentially zero
  11. Costa Rica+0.06%+€45m · essentially zero
  12. New Zealand+0.05%+€126m · essentially zero
  13. Argentina+0.05%+€311m · essentially zero
  14. Philippines+0.04%+€175m · essentially zero
  15. El Salvador+0.04%+€11m · essentially zero
  16. Mexico+0.03%+€405m · essentially zero
  17. Kazakhstan+0.02%+€55m · essentially zero
  18. Guatemala+0.02%+€18m · essentially zero
  19. Algeria+0.02%+€36m · essentially zero
  20. Madagascar+0.01%+€2m · essentially zero
  21. French Polynesia+<0.01%+<€1m · essentially zero
  22. Ethiopia+<0.01%+€6m · essentially zero
  23. Kuwait+<0.01%+€1m · essentially zero
  24. Israel+<0.01%+€1m · essentially zero
  25. Guyana−<0.01%−<€1m · essentially zero
  26. Bermuda−<0.01%−<€1m · essentially zero
  27. Niger−<0.01%−€2m · essentially zero
  28. Bangladesh−0.01%−€61m · essentially zero
  29. Nicaragua−0.01%−€2m · essentially zero
  30. Qatar−0.02%−€32m · essentially zero
  31. Bahrain−0.02%−€8m · essentially zero
  32. Cayman Islands−0.02%−€2m · essentially zero
  33. Malawi−0.02%−€3m · essentially zero
  34. Vietnam−0.03%−€103m · essentially zero
  35. Australia−0.04%−€607m · essentially zero
  36. Zimbabwe−0.05%−€17m · essentially zero
  37. Zambia−0.05%−€13m · essentially zero
  38. Myanmar−0.05%−€35m · essentially zero
  39. Macao−0.06%−€24m · essentially zero
  40. Botswana−0.07%−€12m · essentially zero
  41. Uruguay−0.07%−€50m · essentially zero
  42. Pakistan−0.07%−€238m · essentially zero
  43. Uganda−0.07%−€33m · essentially zero
  44. Cambodia−0.08%−€31m · essentially zero
  45. DR Congo−0.09%−€63m · essentially zero
  46. Bahamas−0.10%−€13m · essentially zero

Too close to call · 9

  1. Slovakia+0.24%+€294m · too close to call · 58% toward Ukraine
  2. Congo+0.12%+€18m · too close to call · 54% toward Ukraine
  3. Paraguay−0.12%−€50m · too close to call · 55% toward Russia
  4. Morocco−0.13%−€182m · too close to call · 59% toward Russia
  5. Sudan−0.21%−€94m · too close to call · 54% toward Russia
  6. Benin−0.36%−€65m · too close to call · 56% toward Russia
  7. Tajikistan−0.40%−€46m · too close to call · 58% toward Russia
  8. Togo−0.48%−€43m · too close to call · 50% toward Russia
  9. Syria−1.0%−€200m · too close to call · 64% toward Russia

Leaning toward Russia · 15

  1. Mauritania−0.12%−€12m · likely toward Russia · 68%
  2. Armenia−0.17%−€37m · likely toward Russia · 69%
  3. Kenya−0.31%−€333m · likely toward Russia · 90%
  4. Singapore−0.41%−€2.0bn · likely toward Russia · 75%
  5. Egypt−0.43%−€1.7bn · likely toward Russia · 95%
  6. United Arab Emirates−0.71%−€3.5bn · likely toward Russia · 97%
  7. Namibia−0.83%−€100m · likely toward Russia · 77%
  8. Mozambique−0.85%−€165m · likely toward Russia · 68%
  9. Serbia−1.4%−€1.1bn · likely toward Russia · 84%
  10. Hong Kong−1.6%−€5.8bn · likely toward Russia · 97%
  11. North Macedonia−2.1%−€298m · likely toward Russia · 87%
  12. Senegal−2.1%−€600m · likely toward Russia · 76%
  13. Burkina Faso−3.9%−€749m · likely toward Russia · 92%
  14. Georgia−4.1%−€1.2bn · likely toward Russia · 87%
  15. Mongolia−6.4%−€1.2bn · likely toward Russia · 77%

Toward Russia · 32

Numbered from the Russia end: number 1 is furthest that way.

  1. 1.Kyrgyzstan−10.0%−€1.4bn
  2. 2.Libya−6.6%−€2.8bn
  3. 3.Hungary−6.0%−€11.4bn
  4. 4.Yemen−5.2%−€462m
  5. 5.Tunisia−4.6%−€2.1bn
  6. 6.Uzbekistan−4.1%−€4.1bn
  7. 7.Türkiye−3.1%−€32.7bn
  8. 8.Nepal−2.5%−€974m
  9. 9.Azerbaijan−2.5%−€1.7bn
  10. 10.India−2.2%−€70.6bn
  11. 11.Afghanistan−1.5%−€236m
  12. 12.Oman−1.4%−€1.4bn
  13. 13.Tanzania−1.1%−€821m
  14. 14.Ghana−0.92%−€678m
  15. 15.Sri Lanka−0.87%−€698m
  16. 16.Mauritius−0.86%−€112m
  17. 17.China−0.75%−€128bn
  18. 18.Côte d'Ivoire−0.71%−€525m
  19. 19.Malaysia−0.64%−€2.5bn
  20. 20.Brazil−0.51%−€10.1bn
  21. 21.South Africa−0.49%−€1.8bn
  22. 22.Jamaica−0.49%−€94m
  23. 23.Iran−0.44%−€1.9bn
  24. 24.Maldives−0.41%−€25m
  25. 25.Jordan−0.35%−€183m
  26. 26.Fiji−0.35%−€18m
  27. 27.Saudi Arabia−0.30%−€3.5bn
  28. 28.Iraq−0.22%−€568m
  29. 29.Indonesia−0.20%−€2.6bn
  30. 30.Sierra Leone−0.14%−€9m
  31. 31.Barbados−0.09%−€6m
  32. 32.Papua New Guinea−0.08%−€22m

Economies with a GDP under €5bn

The map's ranking leaves them out by default (Filters › Size), because small amounts swing their shares widely. Each with its group.

  1. Greenland+1.5%+€46m · Leaning toward Ukraine · likely toward Ukraine · 67%
  2. Liberia+0.63%+€26m · Leaning toward Ukraine · likely toward Ukraine · 85%
  3. Burundi+0.29%+€10m · Leaning toward Ukraine · likely toward Ukraine · 73%
  4. Suriname+0.21%+€8m · Leaning toward Ukraine · likely toward Ukraine · 86%
  5. Belize−0.13%−€4m · Near zero · near zero · 82% toward Russia
  6. Timor-Leste+0.07%+€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  7. Eswatini+0.01%+€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  8. Lesotho+0.01%+<€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  9. Grenada+<0.01%+<€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  10. Andorra+<0.01%+<€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  11. Curaçao−0.03%−€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  12. Dominica−0.06%−<€1m · Essentially zero · essentially zero
  13. Gibraltar+0.42%+€15m · Too close to call · too close to call · 56% toward Ukraine
  14. Faroe Islands+0.32%+€11m · Too close to call · too close to call · 56% toward Ukraine
  15. Anguilla−0.12%−€1m · Too close to call · too close to call · 59% toward Russia
  16. Cabo Verde−0.17%−€4m · Too close to call · too close to call · 56% toward Russia
  17. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines−0.41%−€4m · Too close to call · too close to call · 61% toward Russia
  18. Saint Kitts and Nevis−0.55%−€5m · Too close to call · too close to call · 61% toward Russia
  19. Seychelles−0.22%−€4m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 80%
  20. Antigua and Barbuda−0.28%−€5m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 89%
  21. Sao Tome and Principe−0.29%−€2m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 71%
  22. Eritrea−0.32%−€7m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 68%
  23. Marshall Islands−0.71%−€2m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 78%
  24. Gambia−1.5%−€33m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 88%
  25. Djibouti−1.6%−€59m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 89%
  26. Central African Republic−4.8%−€115m · Leaning toward Russia · likely toward Russia · 92%
  27. Kiribati−0.12%−<€1m · Toward Russia
  28. Nauru−0.19%−<€1m · Toward Russia
  29. Solomon Islands−0.27%−€4m · Toward Russia
  30. Samoa−0.29%−€3m · Toward Russia
  31. Tonga−0.31%−€2m · Toward Russia
  32. Comoros−0.48%−€7m · Toward Russia
  33. Niue−0.67%−<€1m · Toward Russia
  34. Vanuatu−0.74%−€8m · Toward Russia
  35. Cook Islands−0.84%−€3m · Toward Russia
  36. Palau−2.4%−€6m · Toward Russia
  37. Bhutan−2.5%−€71m · Toward Russia
  38. Tuvalu−2.9%−€1m · Toward Russia

Party to the war (with Russia), not ranked

No data

No observation of their own for the war years: nothing is counted and they are not ranked.

Vatican City, Montserrat, Saint Barthélemy, Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, French Southern Territories, Guam, Bonaire, Norfolk Island, Northern Mariana Islands, Micronesia, Pitcairn, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Tokelau, Wallis and Futuna, American Samoa, Western Sahara, Saint Helena, Saint Lucia, Haiti, Sint Maarten, British Virgin Islands, Aruba, Turks and Caicos Islands, British Indian Ocean Territory, Chad, South Sudan, Falkland Islands, San Marino, Equatorial Guinea, Somalia, New Caledonia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea

Ranking · Support for Ukraine by country · Trade with Russia by country · How it works

Topics

Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/ranking/