Is Palau helping Russia? What the money flows show
Palau's support for Ukraine since 2022: <€1m (<0.01% of one year's GDP: its aid, refugee hosting, private donations and its other parts of support, net of money flowing back). Russia kept €6m (2.4% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€6m of €6m). The net is 2.4% of a year's GDP toward Russia (likely 1.1% to 4.2% toward Russia; very likely · >99%).
likely 1.1% to 4.2% toward Russia · €6m · ≈ 0.52%/yr
Supported Ukraine + raised Russia's earnings from trade = 2.4% of GDP toward Russia. Mostly toward Russia (mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere).
Chance toward Russia: >99%; 100% of the other method choices agree.
Support for Ukraine
Supported Ukraine with
<0.01%
<€1m
likely from 0.03% below zero to <0.01% above zero essentially zero
Russia's earnings from trade
Raised Russia's earnings from trade by
2.4%
€6m
likely 1.1% to 4.2% toward Russia very likely · >99%
Russia kept €6m (2.4% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€6m of €6m).
Russia's gain: Russia kept 2.4% of GDP more (€6m; likely 1.1% to 4.2% toward Russia)
Palau's own gain from trade with Russia: Palau kept 0% of GDP less from its trade with Russia (€0; about 0)
The two lines add up to Russia's earnings from trade; their ranges do not.
Its story in short
Mostly from fuel buying Orange here is mostly fuel buying, not siding with Russia. Most of this is fuel and food bought from Russia. Fuel is fungible and sold through many traders: the figure reflects what this economy bought, not a policy toward Russia or Ukraine.
Rough data: mostly estimates 100% of its parts, by size, are rough indications (certainty D): treat its number as a direction, not a measurement.
Mostly one part Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: €6m of the net's €6m.
Small economy A small economy (GDP €262m): small sums move its % a lot. Not ranked, and drawn in the lightest shade only.
What makes up the number
Supported Ukraine with <0.01% · <€1m
Raised Russia's earnings from trade by 2.4% · €6m
Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countriesDown estimate
−2.4%
€6m
+ toward Ukraine, − toward Russia (in support for Ukraine, − is money it earned back or bought less from Ukraine than without the war). Letters: A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate, D rough indication.
By year
The year with the largest net amount was 2023: −€2m.
Each year's amount: + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia. *2026: to August.
Sanctions on Russia
We found no sanctions of Palau's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Palau. Checked 27 October 2026.
Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: €6m (2.4% of one year's GDP).
How the number is backed
3 sources back its parts: 0 official statistics, 0 research reports, 0 press reports and 1 of this project's own estimates, plus 2 method inputs. By size, 0% of its parts are reported or measured (A–B), 0% modelled (C) and 100% rough indications (D). No data: Fuel and goods bought from Russia · Sales to Ukraine · Sales to Russia · War-time fuel prices. There is no observation of its own for the war years, so these count as zero. Why
Data coverage
Aid to Ukraine: estimated no record found: 0, with a small upper bound
Private donations: missing no data and no estimate; counted as zero
Services trade with Russia: missing no data and no estimate; counted as zero
Refugee hosting: reported no refugees from Ukraine recorded
Bought from Russia: estimated partly filled: imf
Sold to Russia: estimated partly filled: estimated
Bought from Ukraine: estimated partly filled: estimated, mirror
Sold to Ukraine: estimated partly filled: estimated
Energy switching cost: estimated modelled per fuel and month
Company taxes in Russia: reported no companies operating in Russia found
Sources, by part
Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries D
In money terms the net is −2.4% of one year's GDP (likely 1.1% to 4.2% toward Russia; very likely · >99%). Chance toward Russia: >99%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Russia kept €6m (2.4% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€6m of €6m). Most of this is fuel and food bought from Russia. Fuel is fungible and sold through many traders: the figure reflects what this economy bought, not a policy toward Russia or Ukraine. The number counts money: weapons at their money value; votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.
We found no sanctions of Palau's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Palau.
War Balance