War Balance
Russian oil price cap: who bought Russian crude at a discount?
Since March 2022 Russia has sold crude below Brent, under the EU embargo and the G7 price cap. This page sorts the discount each buyer gained from then to August 2026, counting the part beyond Russia's normal pre-war discount: for India it comes to €24.1bn. It is shown for information and not added to the totals: what Russia kept from each buyer, discounts included, is in its trade figures.
What is the Russian oil price cap?
The price cap is a G7 and EU rule on Russian oil sold by sea: Western firms may ship, insure and finance a cargo on condition that it is sold at the cap or under it. It applies to crude oil since December 2022 and to oil products such as diesel since February 2023, alongside the EU's ban on importing Russian crude and oil products by sea. The EU, the UK and other members of the coalition cut the cap on crude from September 2025 and now review it regularly against the market price. Russia also sells crude outside the cap with the shadow fleet; this page shows the discount buyers gained beyond Russia's normal pre-war discount.
These numbers measure money: aid to Ukraine and the change in what Russia keeps from trade, against a world without the war. Weapons count at their money value: aid at market value when delivered, weapons and troops sent to Russia at the seller's gain where Russia paid and in full where it did not. Votes, diplomacy and intent are not in them.
Ranking · 25
Sorted by “Discount gained on Russian oil” in euros, high to low, 2022 to August 2026. More or less: how much more or less Russia kept (taxes and profit, not sales) than in a world without the war; + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia.
Not in the totals: shown for information (the cost view, kept in the full data download).
| # | Country | Discount gained on Russian oil | Paid Russia since 2022 | Russia kept from trade, vs no war | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | India | €24.1bn0.74% of GDP · €17 per personrange €17.7bn to €35.9bn | €201bn6.2% of GDP | €70.5bn more2.2% of GDP morevery likely · >99% | −€70.6bn−2.2% of GDPvery likely · >99% |
| 2 | China | €18.1bn0.11% of GDP · €13 per personrange €13.3bn to €26.9bn | €547bn3.2% of GDP | €128bn more0.74% of GDP morevery likely · >99% | −€128bn−0.75% of GDPvery likely · >99% |
| 3 | Türkiye | €5.5bn0.52% of GDP · €65 per personrange €4.1bn to €8.3bn | €174bn16.3% of GDP | €32.8bn more3.1% of GDP morevery likely · 96% | −€32.7bn−3.1% of GDPvery likely · 96% |
| 4 | Netherlands | €1.6bn0.15% of GDP · €89 per personrange €1.2bn to €2.4bn | €31.7bn3.0% of GDP | €30.2bn less2.9% of GDP lessvery likely · 98% | +€54.1bn+5.1% of GDPvery likely · >99% |
| 5 | Germany | €1.4bn0.03% of GDP · €17 per personrange €1bn to €2.1bn | €69.3bn1.7% of GDP | €72.6bn less1.7% of GDP lessvery likely · >99% | +€153bn+3.7% of GDPvery likely · >99% |
| 6 | Saudi Arabia | €1.3bn0.12% of GDP · €38 per personrange €0.98bn to €2bn | €18.3bn1.6% of GDP | €3.9bn more0.33% of GDP morevery likely · 99% | −€3.5bn−0.30% of GDPvery likely · 99% |
| 7 | Italy | €1.3bn0.06% of GDP · €22 per personrange €0.97bn to €2bn | €39.1bn1.8% of GDP | €18.8bn less0.89% of GDP lesslikely toward Ukraine · 91% | +€34.4bn+1.6% of GDPvery likely · >99% |
| 8 | Poland | €1bn0.13% of GDP · €28 per personrange €0.74bn to €1.5bn | €22.5bn3.0% of GDP | €22.8bn less3.0% of GDP lessvery likely · >99% | +€37.8bn+5.0% of GDPvery likely · >99% |
| 9 | Bulgaria | €0.99bn1.0% of GDP · €153 per personrange €0.72bn to €1.5bn | €8.1bn8.5% of GDP | €2.4bn less2.5% of GDP lesslikely toward Ukraine · 87% | +€3.1bn+3.3% of GDPlikely toward Ukraine · 95% |
| 10 | Hungary | €0.73bn0.38% of GDP · €76 per personrange €0.53bn to €1.1bn | €30.6bn16.1% of GDP | €12.3bn more6.4% of GDP morevery likely · 98% | −€11.4bn−6.0% of GDPvery likely · 97% |
| 11 | Slovakia | €0.72bn0.60% of GDP · €134 per personrange €0.53bn to €1.1bn | €14.4bn11.9% of GDP | €0.91bn more0.75% of GDP moretoo close to call · 58% toward Russia | +€0.29bn+0.24% of GDPtoo close to call · 58% toward Ukraine |
| 12 | Brazil | €0.72bn0.04% of GDP · €3 per personrange €0.53bn to €1.1bn | €43.4bn2.2% of GDP | €10.1bn more0.51% of GDP morevery likely · >99% | −€10.1bn−0.51% of GDPvery likely · >99% |
| 13 | South Korea | €0.70bn0.04% of GDP · €14 per personrange €0.52bn to €1bn | €43.4bn2.5% of GDP | €17.2bn less1.0% of GDP lessvery likely · 99% | +€18.1bn+1.1% of GDPvery likely · 99% |
| 14 | Greece | €0.69bn0.31% of GDP · €66 per personrange €0.50bn to €1bn | €18.9bn8.5% of GDP | €1.6bn more0.70% of GDP morelikely toward Russia · 69% | +€0.18bn+0.08% of GDPessentially zero |
| 15 | Belgium | €0.67bn0.11% of GDP · €57 per personrange €0.49bn to €1.00bn | €24.7bn4.2% of GDP | €3.7bn less0.62% of GDP lesslikely toward Ukraine · 79% | +€20.3bn+3.4% of GDPvery likely · >99% |
| 16 | Singapore | €0.61bn0.12% of GDP · €100 per personrange €0.44bn to €0.90bn | €25bn5.0% of GDP | €2.2bn more0.44% of GDP morelikely toward Russia · 78% | −€2bn−0.41% of GDPlikely toward Russia · 75% |
| 17 | Brunei | €0.54bn3.7% of GDP · €1,172 per personrange €0.40bn to €0.81bn | €1.8bn12.3% of GDP | €0.45bn less3.1% of GDP lesslikely toward Ukraine · 85% | +€0.45bn+3.1% of GDPlikely toward Ukraine · 85% |
| 18 | Czechia | €0.52bn0.17% of GDP · €48 per personrange €0.38bn to €0.77bn | €21.4bn6.9% of GDP | €3.6bn less1.2% of GDP lesslikely toward Ukraine · 81% | +€8bn+2.6% of GDPvery likely · 97% |
| 19 | Uzbekistan | €0.50bn0.49% of GDP · €14 per personrange €0.22bn to €0.96bn | €31.2bn31.1% of GDP | €4.1bn more4.1% of GDP morevery likely · >99% | −€4.1bn−4.1% of GDPvery likely · >99% |
| 20 | Egypt | €0.47bn0.12% of GDP · €4 per personrange €0.35bn to €0.70bn | €23bn5.9% of GDP | €1.8bn more0.45% of GDP morevery likely · 95% | −€1.7bn−0.43% of GDPlikely toward Russia · 95% |
| 21 | Malaysia | €0.43bn0.11% of GDP · €12 per personrange €0.32bn to €0.65bn | €11.3bn3.0% of GDP | €2.5bn more0.65% of GDP morevery likely · 99% | −€2.5bn−0.64% of GDPvery likely · 99% |
| 22 | Romania | €0.40bn0.12% of GDP · €21 per personrange €0.29bn to €0.59bn | €7.1bn2.2% of GDP | €6.7bn less2.1% of GDP lessvery likely · 96% | +€8.9bn+2.8% of GDPvery likely · 99% |
| 23 | Myanmar | €0.39bn0.61% of GDP · €7 per personrange €0.28bn to €0.58bn | €0.42bn0.67% of GDP | €31m more0.05% of GDP moreessentially zero | −€35m−0.05% of GDPessentially zero |
| 24 | Armenia | €0.36bn1.7% of GDP · €120 per personrange €0.16bn to €0.70bn | €10.3bn47.8% of GDP | €34m more0.15% of GDP morelikely toward Russia · 69% | −€37m−0.17% of GDPlikely toward Russia · 69% |
| 25 | Syria | €0.36bn1.8% of GDP · €15 per personrange €0.26bn to €0.54bn | €2.6bn13.2% of GDP | €0.20bn more1.0% of GDP moretoo close to call · 64% toward Russia | −€0.20bn−1.0% of GDPtoo close to call · 64% toward Russia |
Each row: the best estimate, then its range in the same unit and sign. The chances of the direction are for each country's totals, on its page.
Party to the war (with Russia), not ranked
- Belarus: Discount gained on Russian oil €3.6bn
Questions
How big is the discount on Russian oil?
Across the 25 buyers listed, the discount gained since March 2022 beyond Russia's normal pre-war discount comes to €64.2bn; the table starts with India, China and Türkiye.
Did the price cap reduce Russia's oil income?
Partly. Selling at a discount cut what Russia kept, but war-time prices raised it, in 2022 in particular; each buyer's page shows both in its line for war-time fuel prices.
Related
Ranking · Support for Ukraine by country · Trade with Russia by country · All topics · How it works
УкраїнськаDeutschFrançaisPolskiNederlandsEspañol
Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/russian-oil-discount/