War Balance

Poland vs Italy: support for Ukraine and trade with Russia since 2022

Poland: Toward Ukraine by 5.0% of a year's GDP since 2022 (likely 2.8% to 7.8% toward Ukraine; very likely · >99%). Italy: Toward Ukraine by 1.6% of a year's GDP since 2022 (likely 0.60% to 2.8% toward Ukraine; very likely · >99%).

Support for Ukraine in euros: Poland €14.2bn, Italy €12.7bn. More in euros: Poland; more as a share of GDP: Poland.

Poland → Italy →

These numbers measure money: aid to Ukraine and the change in what Russia keeps from trade, against a world without the war. Weapons count at their money value: aid at market value when delivered, weapons and troops sent to Russia at the seller's gain where Russia paid and in full where it did not. Votes, diplomacy and intent are not in them.

Side by side

#CountryNetSupport for UkraineRussia kept from trade, vs no warRussian money frozen (return lost)Paid Russia since 2022
Poland+5.0%+€37.8bn · +€1,034 per personlikely 2.8% to 7.8% toward Ukrainevery likely · >99%+€14.2bn+1.9% of GDPvery likely · 98%€22.8bn less3.0% of GDP lessvery likely · >99%€0.85bn0.11% of GDP€22.5bn3.0% of GDP
Italy+1.6%+€34.4bn · +€584 per personlikely 0.60% to 2.8% toward Ukrainevery likely · >99%+€12.7bn+0.60% of GDPvery likely · >99%€18.8bn less0.89% of GDP lesslikely toward Ukraine · 91%€3bn0.14% of GDP€39.1bn1.8% of GDP

Each row: the best estimate, then its range and the chance of its direction, as in the country's panel.

What makes up each number

MeasurePolandItaly
Cost of hosting refugees from Ukraine+€10.6bn+1.4% of GDP+€1.5bn+0.07% of GDP
Government aid to Ukraine+€3bn+0.39% of GDP+€3.4bn+0.16% of GDP
Share of EU aid to Ukraine+€2bn+0.27% of GDP+€7bn+0.33% of GDP
Refugee spending kept in the host economy−€0.91bn−0.12% of GDP−€40m<0.01% of GDP
Extra sales to Ukraine−€0.82bn−0.11% of GDP–
Extra services sold to Ukraine−€0.44bn−0.06% of GDP−€11m<0.01% of GDP
Purchases from Ukraine vs no war+€0.41bn+0.05% of GDP+€18m<0.01% of GDP
Private donations to Ukraine+€0.41bn+0.05% of GDP+€0.45bn+0.02% of GDP
Aid spent here on energy, relief and rebuilding−€68m<0.01% of GDP−€8m<0.01% of GDP
Aid to Ukraine spent at home−€23m<0.01% of GDP–
Share of IMF and World Bank lending to Ukraine+€20m<0.01% of GDP+€98m<0.01% of GDP
Undisclosed military aid to Ukraine–+€0.35bn+0.02% of GDP
Other countries' aid to Ukraine spent here–−€38m<0.01% of GDP
Russia's gain on fuel and goods it sold+€22.3bn+3.0% of GDP+€28.3bn+1.3% of GDP
Russia's gain from war-time fuel prices−€1.8bn−0.23% of GDP−€8.2bn−0.39% of GDP
Sellers' gain on sales to Russia+€0.84bn+0.11% of GDP+€0.11bn<0.01% of GDP
Russian oil bought via other countries+€0.78bn+0.10% of GDP−€0.60bn−0.03% of GDP
Company taxes paid in Russia+€0.59bn+0.08% of GDP−€0.29bn−0.01% of GDP
Extra price Russia paid because of sanctions−€0.11bn−0.01% of GDP–
Company profits in Russia+€84m+0.01% of GDP−€0.69bn−0.03% of GDP
Services sold to Russia+€68m<0.01% of GDP+€74m<0.01% of GDP
Services bought from Russia+€42m<0.01% of GDP+€0.10bn<0.01% of GDP
Shipping and insuring Russian oil–−€31m<0.01% of GDP
Profits of Russian-owned companies abroad–+€12m<0.01% of GDP
Gold and hidden payments to Russia–−€11m<0.01% of GDP
Frozen Russian central bank reserves€0.55bn0.07% of GDP€1.9bn0.09% of GDP
Frozen Russian private assets€0.30bn0.04% of GDP€1.1bn0.05% of GDP

+ toward Ukraine, − toward Russia

Year by year

YearCountrySupport for UkraineTrade: toward Ukraine (+) / toward Russia (−)Russian money frozenNet
2022Poland+€5.9bn+€2.4bn+€62m+€8.4bn
Italy+€2.9bn−€3.9bn+€216m−€781m
2023Poland+€2.9bn+€5.6bn+€271m+€8.8bn
Italy+€3.4bn+€6.9bn+€958m+€11.3bn
2024Poland+€2.4bn+€5.9bn+€235m+€8.5bn
Italy+€2.8bn+€4.6bn+€834m+€8.2bn
2025Poland+€1.8bn+€4.3bn+€177m+€6.2bn
Italy+€2.3bn+€4.4bn+€627m+€7.3bn
2026*Poland+€1.3bn+€4.6bn+€106m+€5.9bn
Italy+€1.4bn+€6.7bn+€374m+€8.4bn

Each year's amount: + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia. *2026: to August.

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Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/compare/poland-vs-italy/