War Balance
How to read a number
Germany, 2022 to August 2026, in the current build:
- Supported Ukraine with 1.79% of a year's GDP (EUR 74.8bn): it gave EUR 76.2bn and earned back 1.39 from the war effort.
- Cut Russia's earnings from trade by 1.74% (EUR 72.6bn): Russia kept that much less from Germany than without the war. EUR 21.9bn of it is gas Russia cut off itself, which the panel labels.
- Net: toward Ukraine by 3.65%, likely 2.63% to 5.00%. The net adds help given and a cut in Russia's earnings, two different things, plus Russian money frozen (EUR 5.3bn).
- A total, not a yearly rate: over about 4.7 years, so an average year is about 0.7%.
The largest parts, EUR bn:
| part | middle (likely range) | direction |
|---|---|---|
| Bought less from Russia | 69.9 (31.9 to 116.6) | Ukraine |
| Hosting refugees | 35.5 (32.1 to 54.2) | Ukraine |
| Aid (Kiel, adjusted) | 25.9 (22.1 to 32.6) | Ukraine |
| Share of EU aid | 11.6 (8.4 to 17.3) | Ukraine |
| Its firms pay Russia less tax | 5.4 (1.9 to 10.5) | Ukraine |
| Less Russian oil via other countries | 4.3 (2.3 to 6.4) | Ukraine |
| Russian money frozen | 3.1 (2.1 to 3.8) | Ukraine |
| Paid Russia war-time fuel prices | 16.5 (1.3 to 29.3) | Russia |
What to look at:
- "Compared with what?" The wide range comes almost entirely from "bought less from Russia": nobody knows exactly what Germany would have bought without the war (counterfactual).
- Aid differs from Kiel's. Kiel's figure for Germany's own aid is EUR 30.8bn; 25.9 is counted because donated weapons are at market value, loans at their gift value, and military aid counts when delivered. Germany's share of EU-level aid is a part of its own (11.6).
- The likely range aims at about 90%; rerun as if the war had started in 2018 or 2014, trade ranges held the true zero 96% and 90% of the time (ranges). The method band (net 3.13% to 3.81%) shows the same number under other reasonable method choices (ranges).
- "Very likely · >99%" is the chance of its direction, from simulating every part's range together (how likely the direction is). The letters on the parts say how each is known: A = reported, B = measured estimate, C = modelled, D = rough, capped by its sources (certainty letters).
- A
*on a part: its 2026 value is estimated from the 2025 rate. - 2026 prices: 2022–2025 alone the net is +2.95%; 2026 adds a lot because fuel prices rose with the Hormuz crisis (prices).
- Not in the number: what Russia took from German companies (seizures EUR 9.5bn, forced exits 2.4bn) is a marker on the map.
- Each part opens its method: tap a part in the panel, then "How it works" for that money flow, its sources and its changes.
Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/method/reading/