# War Balance

> War Balance shows, for every country, where its money moved since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine: its support for Ukraine and the change in what Russia kept from trade with it, against a world without the war.

Figures from 2022 to August 2026. Data and text: CC BY 4.0, credit War Balance.

## What it measures

- Net: support for Ukraine plus the change in what Russia kept from trade with the country, plus the return Russia lost on frozen Russian money; + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia.
- Support for Ukraine: government aid (weapons at market value when delivered, loans at their gift value), the country's share of EU-level aid and of IMF, World Bank and EBRD lending, the public cost of hosting refugees (after the host's gain on their work), private donations, an estimate of undisclosed military aid and purchases from Ukraine against the no-war level, net of money flowing back to its own economy.
- Russia's earnings from trade: how much less, or more, Russia kept from trade with the country (taxes and profit above a normal return, not sales) than in a world without the war.
- The no-war baseline: the trade, prices and volumes expected without the war; every trade figure is the difference from it.
- Amounts are totals for 2022 to the month the data end, in euros and as a share of one year's GDP (the 2022-2024 average).
- Ranges: every headline figure has a range and a chance for its direction, from simulating every part's range together; each part has a certainty letter: A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate, D rough indication.
- Russia's earnings from trade are the sum of its lines: Russia's own gain and the country's own gain from trade with Russia.
- Weapons count at their money value: aid to Ukraine at market value when delivered, weapons and troops sent to Russia at the seller's gain where Russia paid and in full where it did not. Votes, diplomacy and intent are not in the figures.
- Chance words: The chance of the direction comes from simulating every part's likely range together, correlated where parts share inputs. Very likely: at least 95%, every other method choice agrees and the likely range stays on that side. Likely: at least 65%. Too close to call: below that. Near zero: the likely range and the method band stay within ±0.5% of a year's GDP. Essentially zero: not very likely and the middle value is under 0.1% of a year's GDP, or the whole likely range is. Direction words follow the middle value; where the simulations lean the other way, it says so.

## How to cite

War Balance, figures to August 2026, then the page's address. Every page carries its own cite line.

## Main pages

- [Map](https://warbalance.org/): The map: every country's net, support for Ukraine and Russia's earnings from trade
- [Ranking](https://warbalance.org/ranking/): Every country ranked by its net, with the chance of its direction
- [Support for Ukraine by country](https://warbalance.org/support-for-ukraine/): Each country's support for Ukraine, in euros, as a share of GDP and per person
- [Trade with Russia by country](https://warbalance.org/trade-with-russia/): What Russia kept from trade with each country, against a world without the war
- [All topics](https://warbalance.org/topics/): Every topic, group, part, year and comparison page, in every site language
- [Downloads](https://warbalance.org/downloads/): The data as CSV and JSON, with a field guide
- [Ukraine support tracker](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-support-tracker/)
- [Who bought Russian oil and gas](https://warbalance.org/russian-oil-gas-buyers/)
- [Frozen Russian assets](https://warbalance.org/frozen-russian-assets/)
- [Europe: paid Russia vs aid to Ukraine](https://warbalance.org/europe-energy-payments-vs-aid/)
- [Russia's war income from trade](https://warbalance.org/russia-war-income/)
- [EU countries](https://warbalance.org/group/eu/)
- [G7](https://warbalance.org/group/g7/)
- [NATO members](https://warbalance.org/group/nato/)
- [BRICS](https://warbalance.org/group/brics/)
- [Gulf states](https://warbalance.org/group/gulf-states/)
- [Central Asia](https://warbalance.org/group/central-asia/)
- [Which countries help Russia?](https://warbalance.org/countries-helping-russia/)
- [Shadow fleet: who ships Russian oil](https://warbalance.org/shadow-fleet/)
- [Cost of hosting Ukrainian refugees](https://warbalance.org/ukrainian-refugees-cost/)
- [EU vs US aid to Ukraine](https://warbalance.org/eu-vs-us-aid/)
- [Aid to Ukraine per person](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-per-capita/)
- [Weapons sent to Russia](https://warbalance.org/military-support-to-russia/)
- [Russian oil discount and price cap](https://warbalance.org/russian-oil-discount/)
- [Re-export hubs and sanctions evasion](https://warbalance.org/group/russia-trade-hubs/)
- [Russian oil refined in third countries](https://warbalance.org/russian-oil-via-third-countries/)
- [Countries with sanctions on Russia](https://warbalance.org/countries-with-sanctions-on-russia/): Every country and territory by the sanctions on Russia that apply there, with the price cap coalition, export controls and Russia's own list of unfriendly states
- [Russia's war budget and oil and gas revenue](https://warbalance.org/russia-oil-gas-revenue/): Russia's federal budget revenue from oil and gas by year and month, in roubles and euros, with export earnings and defence spending for context
- [Military aid to Ukraine by country](https://warbalance.org/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/): Each country's military aid to Ukraine as the site counts it (delivered, at market value) beside the Kiel Institute's figure, and support for Ukraine split by type

Every generated page also has a Markdown version at its own address with index.md added.
Languages: English at the root; uk, de, fr, pl, nl and es under /<language>/.

## Method

- [How it works](https://warbalance.org/how-it-works/): How it works: the method, page by page
- [How to read a number](https://warbalance.org/method/reading/)
- [Method overview: one scale for every flow](https://warbalance.org/method/overview/)
- [Expected without the war: the counterfactual models](https://warbalance.org/method/counterfactual/)
- [Prices: volumes, not values, and the war-time windfall](https://warbalance.org/method/prices/)
- [Ranges and certainty letters](https://warbalance.org/method/ranges/)
- [Goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://warbalance.org/method/trade/)
- [Energy: transit gas, laundered oil, the energy premium and discount](https://warbalance.org/method/energy-and-laundered-oil/)
- [Aid, refugees, military support and flowback](https://warbalance.org/method/aid-refugees-military/)
- [Loans: what a loan is really worth](https://warbalance.org/method/loans/)
- [Services, shipping and company taxes](https://warbalance.org/method/services-shipping-companies/)
- [Russia's state finance, arms sales and companies](https://warbalance.org/method/russia-state-and-companies/)
- [Story tags](https://warbalance.org/method/tags/)
- [Limitations](https://warbalance.org/limitations/): What the figures leave out

## Data

- [data.json](https://warbalance.org/data.json): The full data file the map runs on (JSON)
- [war-balance-countries.csv](https://warbalance.org/downloads/war-balance-countries.csv): Every country: the net, support for Ukraine and Russia's earnings from trade (with its lines), each with its range and chance; the ranking group, no data and party to the war (CSV)
- [war-balance-parts.csv](https://warbalance.org/downloads/war-balance-parts.csv): Every part of every country's number, named by its sign, with its range, certainty letter and sources (CSV)
- [war-balance-years.csv](https://warbalance.org/downloads/war-balance-years.csv): Each country's own amounts year by year: support for Ukraine, Russia's earnings from trade, the return Russia lost on frozen money and the net (CSV)
- [russia-oil-gas-revenue-monthly.csv](https://warbalance.org/downloads/russia-oil-gas-revenue-monthly.csv): Russia's federal oil and gas revenue and all federal revenue, month by month, in roubles and euros (Ministry of Finance; CSV)
- [russia-oil-gas-revenue-yearly.csv](https://warbalance.org/downloads/russia-oil-gas-revenue-yearly.csv): The same by year, with CREA's estimate of export earnings and the defence spending figures, each labelled (CSV)
- [war-balance-fuel-split.csv](https://warbalance.org/downloads/war-balance-fuel-split.csv): What each country bought from Russia by fuel and year: on the map's basis (with its range), by customs records and by CREA's tracker, with the quality (CSV)
- [war-balance-military-split.csv](https://warbalance.org/downloads/war-balance-military-split.csv): Each country's support for Ukraine by type (military, financial, humanitarian, refugees, share of EU aid, other, money flowing back), with the Kiel Institute's military figure (CSV)
- [war-balance-energy-cost.csv](https://warbalance.org/downloads/war-balance-energy-cost.csv): The cost of replacing Russian energy and the discount gained on Russian oil, per country, outside the totals (CSV)
- [war-balance-sources.csv](https://warbalance.org/downloads/war-balance-sources.csv): Every source: its id, title, type and key document (CSV)
- [russia-budget-balance-yearly.csv](https://warbalance.org/downloads/russia-budget-balance-yearly.csv): Russia's federal budget balance by year (CSV)
- [russia-budget-balance-monthly.csv](https://warbalance.org/downloads/russia-budget-balance-monthly.csv): Russia's federal budget balance by month (CSV)
- [russia-national-wealth-fund.csv](https://warbalance.org/downloads/russia-national-wealth-fund.csv): Russia's National Wealth Fund, total and liquid assets (CSV)
- [war-balance-data-dictionary.csv](https://warbalance.org/downloads/war-balance-data-dictionary.csv): Every column of every CSV file: its unit and what it holds (CSV)
- [war-balance-data-dictionary.md](https://warbalance.org/downloads/war-balance-data-dictionary.md): The same guide to every column (Markdown)
- [data-json-schema.md](https://warbalance.org/downloads/data-json-schema.md): What data.json holds, key by key (Markdown)
- [llms-full.txt](https://warbalance.org/llms-full.txt): One line per country