# Is the Seychelles helping Ukraine or Russia? Leaning toward Russia

The Seychelles' support for Ukraine since 2022: <€1m (<0.01% of one year's GDP: its aid, refugee hosting, private donations and its other parts of support, net of money flowing back). The Seychelles moved €4m (0.23% of GDP) more toward Russia than without the war (Russia kept more, and the Seychelles kept more from selling to Russia, mostly income from shipping and insuring Russian oil (€3m of €4m)). The net is 0.22% of a year's GDP toward Russia (likely from 3.2% toward Russia to 0.90% toward Ukraine; likely toward Russia · 80%).

[Open in the map →](https://warbalance.org/#SYC)

Leaning toward Russia by

0.22% of a year's GDP since 2022

likely toward Russia · 80%

likely from 3.2% toward Russia to 0.90% toward Ukraine · €4m · ≈ 0.05%/yr

Supported Ukraine + raised Russia's earnings from trade = 0.22% of GDP toward Russia. Mostly toward Russia.

Chance toward Russia: 80%; 100% of the other method choices agree.

Support for Ukraine

Supported Ukraine with

<0.01%

<€1m

likely from 0.51% below zero to 0.02% above zero essentially zero

Russia's earnings from trade

Probably raised Russia's earnings from trade by

0.23%

€4m

likely from 3.2% toward Russia to 0.89% toward Ukraine likely toward Russia · 76%

The Seychelles moved €4m (0.23% of GDP) more toward Russia than without the war (Russia kept more, and the Seychelles kept more from selling to Russia, mostly income from shipping and insuring Russian oil (€3m of €4m)).

- Russia's gain: Russia kept 0.07% of GDP more (€1m; likely from 1.5% toward Russia to 1.00% toward Ukraine)
- The Seychelles' own gain from trade with Russia: The Seychelles kept 0.16% of GDP more from its trade with Russia (€3m; likely from 2.8% toward Russia to 0.15% toward Ukraine)

The two lines add up to Russia's earnings from trade; their ranges do not.

## Its story in short

- Ships Russian oil The Seychelles kept €3m (0.17% of GDP) more from shipping and insuring Russian oil.
- Rough data: mostly estimates 69% of its parts, by size, are rough indications (certainty D): treat its number as a direction, not a measurement.
- Mostly one part The Seychelles kept more from shipping Russian oil: €3m of the net's €4m.
- Small economy A small economy (GDP €2.0bn): small sums move its % a lot. Not ranked, and drawn in the lightest shade only.

## What decides this number

Chance toward Russia: 80%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Not certain, mostly because of the uncertain size of one part: Its firms paid Russia more tax. No part flips it by shrinking; Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here would have to be 165% larger.

## What makes up the number

Supported Ukraine with <0.01% · <€1m

Probably raised Russia's earnings from trade by 0.23% · €4m

| The Seychelles kept more from shipping Russian oilD | −0.17% | €3m |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countriesDown estimate | −0.14% | €3m |
| Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold hereC | +0.13% | €3m |
| Its firms paid Russia more taxD | −0.09% | €2m |
| Russia kept less from services sold hereC | +0.04% | €1m |

+ toward Ukraine, − toward Russia (in support for Ukraine, − is money it earned back or bought less from Ukraine than without the war). Letters: A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate, D rough indication.

## By year

The year with the largest net amount was 2024: −€2m.

| Year | Support for Ukraine | Trade: toward Ukraine (+) / toward Russia (−) | Net | Net since 2022 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/) | +<€1m | −€1m | −€1m | −0.04% |
| [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/) | +<€1m | −€1m | −€1m | −0.09% |
| [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/) | +<€1m | −€2m | −€2m | −0.19% |
| [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/) | +<€1m | −€1m | −€1m | −0.21% |
| [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)\* | +<€1m | −<€1m | −<€1m | −0.22% |

Each year's amount: + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia. \*2026: to August.

## Trade with Russia before and after

It bought €1m from Russia in 2021 and <€1m in 2025. It sold <€1m to Russia in 2021 and €0m in 2025. For the Seychelles: <€1m paid above no-war prices, most of it in 2022, 71% of it on gas contracts. These are sales values at each year's prices; the totals count what the seller kept on them.

## Sanctions on Russia

We found no sanctions of the Seychelles' own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name the Seychelles. Checked 27 October 2026.

[Every country's sanctions on Russia →](https://warbalance.org/countries-with-sanctions-on-russia/#SYC)

## Indirect channels: hubs, refined oil, shipping

The Seychelles kept more from shipping Russian oil: €3m (0.17% of one year's GDP). Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: €3m (0.14% of one year's GDP).

## How the number is backed

15 sources back its parts: 2 official statistics, 2 research reports, 0 press reports and 2 of this project's own estimates, plus 9 method inputs. By size, 0% of its parts are reported or measured (A–B), 30% modelled (C) and 70% rough indications (D).

### Data coverage

- Aid to Ukraine: estimated no record found: 0, with a small upper bound
- Private donations: missing no data and no estimate; counted as zero
- Services trade with Russia: estimated includes shipping and insuring Russian oil (estimate)
- Refugee hosting: reported no refugees from Ukraine recorded
- Bought from Russia: reported reported 2021-2025
- Sold to Russia: estimated partner data plus an estimate of goods reaching Russia via third countries
- Bought from Ukraine: reported reported 2021-2025
- Sold to Ukraine: estimated partly filled: imf, mirror, reported
- Energy switching cost: estimated modelled per fuel and month
- Company taxes in Russia: estimated allocated by company counts and investment

### Sources, by part

### The Seychelles kept more from shipping Russian oil D

- research · [Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT\_July-2026.pdf)

### Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries D

- own estimate · [Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it](https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA\_PCC\_Refined-Oil-Analysis\_19.02.2024\_Rev\_15.04.2024.pdf)

### Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here C

- official · [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0)
- own estimate · [Small purchases from Russia: the no-war middle value moved up by the measured bias of 'held flat' (back-tests on rolling origins 2005-2016, CEPII BACI)](https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/cf\_models\_r47-notes.md)

### Its firms paid Russia more tax D

- research · [Company taxes in Russia: KSE checked against company reports (Raiffeisen, UniCredit, OTP, PepsiCo) and Bundesbank reinvested earnings](https://www.rbinternational.com/content/dam/rbi/ho/investors/results-reports/annual-reports/rbi/2025-02-25%202024%20RBI%20Annual%20Financial%20Report.pdf.coredownload.pdf)

### Russia kept less from services sold here C

- official · [Services trade with Russia (tourism, transport, business services): Eurostat, OECD-WTO BaTiS, Bank of Russia](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD\_BATIS@DF\_BATIS,1.0/.RUS...S...?startPeriod=2010&endPeriod=2021)

- research · [Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT\_July-2026.pdf)
- method input · [Price levels of what was traded with Russia and Ukraine (2019-2021 = 1): each buyer's own customs unit values per fuel and for other goods, benchmark indices (CREA, World Bank, Eurostat), gas contract prices; oil at the Russian port (FOB), outliers screened](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2023&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=TOTAL&flowCode=M)
- method input · [Pre-war trends for services (OECD-WTO BaTiS, Eurostat, Bank of Russia), foreign companies in Russia and Russian seaborne exports](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD\_BATIS@DF\_BATIS,1.0/.RUS...S...?startPeriod=2010&endPeriod=2021)
- method input · [Genuinely extra share of money earned: production ramp-ups and trade-redirection studies; value kept in the economy (the earlier rule): OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA, 2025 edition)](https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD\_TIVA\_MAINSH@DF\_MAINSH,1.1/EXGR\_DVA..BTE+C+C19+C25+C26+C28+C302T309+GTN+H50+I.W.PT\_EXGR.A?startPeriod=2018&format=csv)
- method input · [Sellers' net gain per euro of sales (taxes on production plus profit above a normal return of 5% a year above inflation after company tax, plus the country's risk premium): OECD STAN database, 2025 edition, by country and industry; Damodaran country risk premiums](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD\_STAN@DF\_STAN\_2025,1.0/A..C+C19+C25+C252+C26+C28+C30+C303+C304+H50+I+GTN+K+K65+\_T.P1+D29X39+B2A3N+B2A3G+P51C+D1.V.XDC?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2024&format=csv)
- own estimate · [Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it](https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA\_PCC\_Refined-Oil-Analysis\_19.02.2024\_Rev\_15.04.2024.pdf)
- method input · [Russia's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Russian Finance Ministry, company reports, IEA, Rosstat](https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistics/fedbud/oil)
- official · [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0)
- method input · [Expected trade without the war: models back-tested on 2008, 2013 and 2016 against holding 2021 flat (UN Comtrade, World Bank WDI and commodity prices, UN voting)](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2021&partnerCode=643&flowCode=X&cmdCode=TOTAL)
- method input · [Ranges of the 2022-2026 total measured on the back-tests' cumulative errors; own bands tested on their own history for Mongolia, Yemen, Tajikistan, Moldova, Türkiye, Kenya, Peru and French Polynesia](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=498&period=2019&flowCode=M&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=99,2711,27,31,TOTAL)
- own estimate · [Small purchases from Russia: the no-war middle value moved up by the measured bias of 'held flat' (back-tests on rolling origins 2005-2016, CEPII BACI)](https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/cf\_models\_r47-notes.md)
- method input · [net-gain shares from official sector profitability (Russia: FNS/Rosstat by OKVED-2 activity; Ukraine: Derzhstat by KVED division), export duties collected and company results](https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons\_doc\_LAW\_55729/df3929054ebc0ff6d666accad51e6fedca8c75fe/)
- method input · [refugee hosting budgets, remittance mirror shares, national donation totals, Hong Kong gold 2026 and OECD ITIC freight margins](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2022/10/international-migration-outlook-2022\_140ace0e/30fe16d2-en.pdf)
- research · [Company taxes in Russia: KSE checked against company reports (Raiffeisen, UniCredit, OTP, PepsiCo) and Bundesbank reinvested earnings](https://www.rbinternational.com/content/dam/rbi/ho/investors/results-reports/annual-reports/rbi/2025-02-25%202024%20RBI%20Annual%20Financial%20Report.pdf.coredownload.pdf)
- official · [Services trade with Russia (tourism, transport, business services): Eurostat, OECD-WTO BaTiS, Bank of Russia](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD\_BATIS@DF\_BATIS,1.0/.RUS...S...?startPeriod=2010&endPeriod=2021)

## Questions

### Is the Seychelles helping Russia?

In money terms the net is −0.22% of one year's GDP (likely from 3.2% toward Russia to 0.90% toward Ukraine; likely toward Russia · 80%). Chance toward Russia: 80%; 100% of the other method choices agree. The Seychelles moved €4m (0.23% of GDP) more toward Russia than without the war (Russia kept more, and the Seychelles kept more from selling to Russia, mostly income from shipping and insuring Russian oil (€3m of €4m)). The number counts money: weapons at their money value; votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.

### What decides the Seychelles' number?

Chance toward Russia: 80%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Not certain, mostly because of the uncertain size of one part: Its firms paid Russia more tax. No part flips it by shrinking; Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here would have to be 165% larger.

### Where do the numbers for the Seychelles come from?

15 sources back its parts, 2 of them official statistics. By part: The Seychelles kept more from shipping Russian oil: [Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT\_July-2026.pdf); Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: [Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it](https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA\_PCC\_Refined-Oil-Analysis\_19.02.2024\_Rev\_15.04.2024.pdf); Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here: [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0). The map's panel lists every one, with its documents.

### Does the Seychelles have sanctions on Russia?

We found no sanctions of the Seychelles' own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name the Seychelles.

## Nearby in the ranking

Leaning toward Russia

- [Syria](https://warbalance.org/country/syria/) · −1.0% · Too close to call · −€200m · 64%
- [Mauritania](https://warbalance.org/country/mauritania/) · −0.12% · Leaning toward Russia · −€12m · 68%
- [Armenia](https://warbalance.org/country/armenia/) · −0.17% · Leaning toward Russia · −€37m · 69%
- Seychelles−0.22% · Leaning toward Russia · −€4m · 80%
- [Antigua and Barbuda](https://warbalance.org/country/antigua-and-barbuda/) · −0.28% · Leaning toward Russia · −€5m · 89%
- [Sao Tome and Principe](https://warbalance.org/country/sao-tome-and-principe/) · −0.29% · Leaning toward Russia · −€2m · 71%
- [Kenya](https://warbalance.org/country/kenya/) · −0.31% · Leaning toward Russia · −€333m · 90%

## More about Seychelles

### Its parts, ranked against other countries

- [Company taxes paid in Russia](https://warbalance.org/company-taxes-paid-in-russia/)

### Every country, by year

- [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/)
- [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/)
- [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/)
- [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/)
- [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)
- [All topics](https://warbalance.org/topics/)

15 sources in all; the map's panel lists every one, with its documents. [Open in the map](https://warbalance.org/#SYC) · [How this is measured](https://warbalance.org/how-it-works/)

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Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/country/seychelles/