# Is Sao Tome and Principe helping Ukraine or Russia? Leaning toward Russia

Sao Tome and Principe's support for Ukraine since 2022: <€1m (<0.01% of one year's GDP: its aid, refugee hosting, private donations and its other parts of support, net of money flowing back). Russia kept €2m (0.29% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€2m of €2m). The net is 0.29% of a year's GDP toward Russia (likely from 1.8% toward Russia to 0.51% toward Ukraine; likely toward Russia · 71%).

[Open in the map →](https://warbalance.org/#STP)

Leaning toward Russia by

0.29% of a year's GDP since 2022

likely toward Russia · 71%

likely from 1.8% toward Russia to 0.51% toward Ukraine · €2m · ≈ 0.06%/yr

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war + raised Russia's earnings from trade = 0.29% of GDP toward Russia. Mostly toward Russia (mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere).

Chance toward Russia: 71%; 100% of the other method choices agree.

Support for Ukraine

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war; below zero by

<0.01%

<€1m

about 0 essentially zero

Russia's earnings from trade

Probably raised Russia's earnings from trade by

0.29%

€2m

likely from 1.8% toward Russia to 0.51% toward Ukraine likely toward Russia · 71%

Russia kept €2m (0.29% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€2m of €2m).

- Russia's gain: Russia kept 0.28% of GDP more (€2m; likely from 1.8% toward Russia to 0.51% toward Ukraine)
- Sao Tome and Principe's own gain from trade with Russia: Sao Tome and Principe kept <0.01% of GDP more from its trade with Russia (<€1m; likely from 0.03% toward Russia to <0.01% toward Ukraine)

The two lines add up to Russia's earnings from trade; their ranges do not.

## Its story in short

- Rough data: mostly estimates 98% of its parts, by size, are rough indications (certainty D): treat its number as a direction, not a measurement.
- Mostly one part Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: €2m of the net's €2m.
- Small economy A small economy (GDP €638m): small sums move its % a lot. Not ranked, and drawn in the lightest shade only.

## What decides this number

Chance toward Russia: 71%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Not certain, mostly because of the uncertain size of one part: Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries.

## What makes up the number

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war; below zero by <0.01% · <€1m

Probably raised Russia's earnings from trade by 0.29% · €2m

| Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countriesDown estimate | −0.28% | €2m |
| --- | --- | --- |

+ toward Ukraine, − toward Russia (in support for Ukraine, − is money it earned back or bought less from Ukraine than without the war). Letters: A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate, D rough indication.

## By year

The year with the largest net amount was 2023: −€1m.

| Year | Support for Ukraine | Trade: toward Ukraine (+) / toward Russia (−) | Net | Net since 2022 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/) | €0 | −€1m | −€1m | −0.10% |
| [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/) | −<€1m | −€1m | −€1m | −0.22% |
| [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/) | −<€1m | −<€1m | −<€1m | −0.23% |
| [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/) | −<€1m | −<€1m | −<€1m | −0.24% |
| [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)\* | −<€1m | −<€1m | −<€1m | −0.29% |

Each year's amount: + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia. \*2026: to August.

## Trade with Russia before and after

It bought <€1m from Russia in 2021 and €0m in 2025. It sold <€1m to Russia in 2021 and €1m in 2025. Most of this is fuel and food bought from Russia. Fuel is fungible and sold through many traders: the figure reflects what this economy bought, not a policy toward Russia or Ukraine. These are sales values at each year's prices; the totals count what the seller kept on them.

## Sanctions on Russia

We found no sanctions of Sao Tome and Principe's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Sao Tome and Principe. Checked 27 October 2026.

[Every country's sanctions on Russia →](https://warbalance.org/countries-with-sanctions-on-russia/#STP)

## Indirect channels: hubs, refined oil, shipping

Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: €2m (0.28% of one year's GDP).

## How the number is backed

3 sources back its parts: 0 official statistics, 0 research reports, 0 press reports and 1 of this project's own estimates, plus 2 method inputs. By size, 0% of its parts are reported or measured (A–B), 0% modelled (C) and 100% rough indications (D). No data: Fuel and goods bought from Russia · War-time fuel prices. There is no observation of its own for the war years, so these count as zero. Why

### Data coverage

- Aid to Ukraine: estimated no record found: 0, with a small upper bound
- Private donations: missing no data and no estimate; counted as zero
- Services trade with Russia: estimated Eurostat, OECD-WTO and Bank of Russia data
- Refugee hosting: reported no refugees from Ukraine recorded
- Bought from Russia: estimated partly filled: estimated, mirror
- Sold to Russia: estimated partner data plus an estimate of goods reaching Russia via third countries
- Bought from Ukraine: estimated partly filled: estimated, reported
- Sold to Ukraine: estimated partly filled: estimated, mirror
- Energy switching cost: estimated modelled per fuel and month
- Company taxes in Russia: reported no companies operating in Russia found

### Sources, by part

### Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries D

- own estimate · [Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it](https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA\_PCC\_Refined-Oil-Analysis\_19.02.2024\_Rev\_15.04.2024.pdf)

- own estimate · [Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it](https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA\_PCC\_Refined-Oil-Analysis\_19.02.2024\_Rev\_15.04.2024.pdf)
- method input · [Price levels of what was traded with Russia and Ukraine (2019-2021 = 1): each buyer's own customs unit values per fuel and for other goods, benchmark indices (CREA, World Bank, Eurostat), gas contract prices; oil at the Russian port (FOB), outliers screened](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2023&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=TOTAL&flowCode=M)
- method input · [Russia's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Russian Finance Ministry, company reports, IEA, Rosstat](https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistics/fedbud/oil)

## Questions

### Is Sao Tome and Principe helping Russia?

In money terms the net is −0.29% of one year's GDP (likely from 1.8% toward Russia to 0.51% toward Ukraine; likely toward Russia · 71%). Chance toward Russia: 71%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Russia kept €2m (0.29% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€2m of €2m). Most of this is fuel and food bought from Russia. Fuel is fungible and sold through many traders: the figure reflects what this economy bought, not a policy toward Russia or Ukraine. The number counts money: weapons at their money value; votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.

### Where do the numbers for Sao Tome and Principe come from?

3 sources back its parts, 0 of them official statistics. By part: Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: [Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it](https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA\_PCC\_Refined-Oil-Analysis\_19.02.2024\_Rev\_15.04.2024.pdf). The map's panel lists every one, with its documents.

### Does Sao Tome and Principe have sanctions on Russia?

We found no sanctions of Sao Tome and Principe's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Sao Tome and Principe.

## Nearby in the ranking

Leaning toward Russia

- [Armenia](https://warbalance.org/country/armenia/) · −0.17% · Leaning toward Russia · −€37m · 69%
- [Seychelles](https://warbalance.org/country/seychelles/) · −0.22% · Leaning toward Russia · −€4m · 80%
- [Antigua and Barbuda](https://warbalance.org/country/antigua-and-barbuda/) · −0.28% · Leaning toward Russia · −€5m · 89%
- Sao Tome and Principe−0.29% · Leaning toward Russia · −€2m · 71%
- [Kenya](https://warbalance.org/country/kenya/) · −0.31% · Leaning toward Russia · −€333m · 90%
- [Eritrea](https://warbalance.org/country/eritrea/) · −0.32% · Leaning toward Russia · −€7m · 68%
- [Singapore](https://warbalance.org/country/singapore/) · −0.41% · Leaning toward Russia · −€2.0bn · 75%

## More about Sao Tome and Principe

### Every country, by year

- [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/)
- [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/)
- [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/)
- [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/)
- [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)
- [All topics](https://warbalance.org/topics/)

3 sources in all; the map's panel lists every one, with its documents. [Open in the map](https://warbalance.org/#STP) · [How this is measured](https://warbalance.org/how-it-works/)

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Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/country/sao-tome-and-principe/