# Is Panama helping Russia or Ukraine? The net is essentially zero

Panama's support for Ukraine since 2022: <€1m (<0.01% of one year's GDP: its aid, refugee hosting, private donations and its other parts of support, net of money flowing back). Russia kept €63m (0.08% of GDP) less than without the war. The net is 0.08% of a year's GDP toward Ukraine (likely from 0.10% toward Russia to 0.59% toward Ukraine; essentially zero).

[Open in the map →](https://warbalance.org/#PAN)

Toward Ukraine by

0.08% of a year's GDP since 2022

essentially zero

likely from 0.10% toward Russia to 0.59% toward Ukraine · €63m · ≈ 0.02%/yr

Supported Ukraine + cut Russia's earnings from trade = 0.08% of GDP toward Ukraine. Mostly less kept by Russia from trade.

Chance toward Ukraine: 78%; 100% of the other method choices agree.

Support for Ukraine

Supported Ukraine with

<0.01%

<€1m

about 0 essentially zero

Russia's earnings from trade

Cut Russia's earnings from trade by

0.08%

€63m

likely from 0.10% toward Russia to 0.59% toward Ukraine essentially zero

Russia kept €63m (0.08% of GDP) less than without the war.

- Russia's gain: Russia kept 0.09% of GDP less (€69m; likely from 0.05% toward Russia to 0.57% toward Ukraine)
- Panama's own gain from trade with Russia: Panama kept <0.01% of GDP more from its trade with Russia (€5m; likely from 0.10% toward Russia to 0.08% toward Ukraine)

The two lines add up to Russia's earnings from trade; their ranges do not.

## Its story in short

- Two different things added The net adds two different things: help given to Ukraine and the change in what Russia kept from trade. Much of what one country stopped buying, Russia sold to others.

## What decides this number

Chance toward Ukraine: 78%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Not certain, mostly because of how much it would have bought from Russia without the war. Here the size of the net is the finding, not its direction: likely from 0.10% toward Russia to 0.59% toward Ukraine.

## What makes up the number

Supported Ukraine with <0.01% · <€1m

Cut Russia's earnings from trade by 0.08% · €63m

| Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold hereC | +0.09% | €68m |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Russia kept less from services sold hereC | +0.01% | €11m |
| Russia kept more from war-time fuel pricesC | −0.01% | €9m |
| Panama kept more from shipping Russian oilD | −<0.01% | €7m |
| Panama kept less from services sold to RussiaC | +<0.01% | €2m |
| Its firms paid Russia more taxD | −<0.01% | €1m |

+ toward Ukraine, − toward Russia (in support for Ukraine, − is money it earned back or bought less from Ukraine than without the war). Letters: A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate, D rough indication.

## By year

The year with the largest net amount was 2025: +€15m.

| Year | Support for Ukraine | Trade: toward Ukraine (+) / toward Russia (−) | Net | Net since 2022 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/) | +<€1m | +<€1m | +<€1m | +<0.01% |
| [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/) | −<€1m | +€10m | +€10m | +0.01% |
| [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/) | +<€1m | +€15m | +€15m | +0.03% |
| [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/) | +<€1m | +€15m | +€15m | +0.05% |
| [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)\* | +<€1m | +€23m | +€23m | +0.08% |

Each year's amount: + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia. \*2026: to August.

## Trade with Russia before and after

It bought €39m from Russia in 2021 and €29m in 2025 (−27%). It sold €2m to Russia in 2021 and <€1m in 2025. For Panama: €9m paid above no-war prices, most of it in 2022, 71% of it on gas contracts. These are sales values at each year's prices; the totals count what the seller kept on them.

## What it bought from Russia, by fuel

Panama's purchases from Russia, 2022 to August 2026, by fuel: by its own customs records (CIF), on the map's basis (the Russian border price, FOB) and by CREA's tracker (ship data). The map's figure is the total on the map's basis.

| Fuel | Customs (CIF) | Map basis (FOB) | Tracker (CREA) | Quality |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Oil products | no customs record | €0.11bnrange €80m to €0.14bn | €0.41bn | C (estimate) |
| Other goods | – | €44m | – | – |
| All goods | – | €0.15bn | – | – |

Quality by year: 2022: C, 2023: C, 2024: C, 2025: D, 2026, January to August: D. C and D are estimates.

[Every buyer, by fuel →](https://warbalance.org/russian-oil-gas-buyers/#by-fuel)

## Sanctions on Russia

We found no sanctions of Panama's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Panama. Checked 27 October 2026.

[Every country's sanctions on Russia →](https://warbalance.org/countries-with-sanctions-on-russia/#PAN)

## The cost of switching away from Russian energy

Replacing Russian energy cost it about €43m extra from 2022 (0.06% of one year's GDP). This is not in the totals: shown for information.

## Compared with its neighbours and groups

Its direction is essentially zero, so the map's ranking gives it no number.

### Neighbours by land

| Country | Net, % of GDP |
| --- | --- |
| [Colombia](https://warbalance.org/country/colombia/) | +0.15% · +€0.52bn · likely toward Ukraine · 95% |
| Panama | +0.08% · +€63m · essentially zero |
| [Costa Rica](https://warbalance.org/country/costa-rica/) | +0.06% · +€45m · essentially zero |

## How the number is backed

15 sources back its parts: 2 official statistics, 2 research reports, 0 press reports and 2 of this project's own estimates, plus 9 method inputs. By size, 0% of its parts are reported or measured (A–B), 92% modelled (C) and 8% rough indications (D). No data: Russian oil bought via other countries. There is no observation of its own for the war years, so these count as zero. Why

### Data coverage

- Aid to Ukraine: estimated no record found: 0, with a small upper bound
- Private donations: estimated national totals or a GDP-based estimate
- Services trade with Russia: estimated includes shipping and insuring Russian oil (estimate)
- Refugee hosting: estimated modelled from refugees hosted per year
- Bought from Russia: reported reported 2021-2025
- Sold to Russia: estimated partner data plus an estimate of goods reaching Russia via third countries
- Bought from Ukraine: reported reported 2021-2025
- Sold to Ukraine: estimated partly filled: mirror, reported
- Energy switching cost: estimated modelled per fuel and month
- Company taxes in Russia: estimated allocated by company counts and investment

### Sources, by part

### Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here C

- official · [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0)
- own estimate · [Small purchases from Russia: the no-war middle value moved up by the measured bias of 'held flat' (back-tests on rolling origins 2005-2016, CEPII BACI)](https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/cf\_models\_r47-notes.md)

### Russia kept less from services sold here C

- official · [Services trade with Russia (tourism, transport, business services): Eurostat, OECD-WTO BaTiS, Bank of Russia](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD\_BATIS@DF\_BATIS,1.0/.RUS...S...?startPeriod=2010&endPeriod=2021)

### Russia kept more from war-time fuel prices C

- own estimate · [War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/update/january/english/text.pdf)
- research · [Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT\_July-2026.pdf)

- official · [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0)
- method input · [Price levels of what was traded with Russia and Ukraine (2019-2021 = 1): each buyer's own customs unit values per fuel and for other goods, benchmark indices (CREA, World Bank, Eurostat), gas contract prices; oil at the Russian port (FOB), outliers screened](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2023&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=TOTAL&flowCode=M)
- method input · [Expected trade without the war: models back-tested on 2008, 2013 and 2016 against holding 2021 flat (UN Comtrade, World Bank WDI and commodity prices, UN voting)](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2021&partnerCode=643&flowCode=X&cmdCode=TOTAL)
- method input · [Ranges of the 2022-2026 total measured on the back-tests' cumulative errors; own bands tested on their own history for Mongolia, Yemen, Tajikistan, Moldova, Türkiye, Kenya, Peru and French Polynesia](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=498&period=2019&flowCode=M&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=99,2711,27,31,TOTAL)
- method input · [Russia's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Russian Finance Ministry, company reports, IEA, Rosstat](https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistics/fedbud/oil)
- own estimate · [Small purchases from Russia: the no-war middle value moved up by the measured bias of 'held flat' (back-tests on rolling origins 2005-2016, CEPII BACI)](https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/cf\_models\_r47-notes.md)
- method input · [net-gain shares from official sector profitability (Russia: FNS/Rosstat by OKVED-2 activity; Ukraine: Derzhstat by KVED division), export duties collected and company results](https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons\_doc\_LAW\_55729/df3929054ebc0ff6d666accad51e6fedca8c75fe/)
- method input · [refugee hosting budgets, remittance mirror shares, national donation totals, Hong Kong gold 2026 and OECD ITIC freight margins](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2022/10/international-migration-outlook-2022\_140ace0e/30fe16d2-en.pdf)
- official · [Services trade with Russia (tourism, transport, business services): Eurostat, OECD-WTO BaTiS, Bank of Russia](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD\_BATIS@DF\_BATIS,1.0/.RUS...S...?startPeriod=2010&endPeriod=2021)
- own estimate · [War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/update/january/english/text.pdf)
- research · [Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT\_July-2026.pdf)
- method input · [Pre-war trends for services (OECD-WTO BaTiS, Eurostat, Bank of Russia), foreign companies in Russia and Russian seaborne exports](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD\_BATIS@DF\_BATIS,1.0/.RUS...S...?startPeriod=2010&endPeriod=2021)
- method input · [Genuinely extra share of money earned: production ramp-ups and trade-redirection studies; value kept in the economy (the earlier rule): OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA, 2025 edition)](https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD\_TIVA\_MAINSH@DF\_MAINSH,1.1/EXGR\_DVA..BTE+C+C19+C25+C26+C28+C302T309+GTN+H50+I.W.PT\_EXGR.A?startPeriod=2018&format=csv)
- method input · [Sellers' net gain per euro of sales (taxes on production plus profit above a normal return of 5% a year above inflation after company tax, plus the country's risk premium): OECD STAN database, 2025 edition, by country and industry; Damodaran country risk premiums](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD\_STAN@DF\_STAN\_2025,1.0/A..C+C19+C25+C252+C26+C28+C30+C303+C304+H50+I+GTN+K+K65+\_T.P1+D29X39+B2A3N+B2A3G+P51C+D1.V.XDC?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2024&format=csv)
- research · [Company taxes in Russia: KSE checked against company reports (Raiffeisen, UniCredit, OTP, PepsiCo) and Bundesbank reinvested earnings](https://www.rbinternational.com/content/dam/rbi/ho/investors/results-reports/annual-reports/rbi/2025-02-25%202024%20RBI%20Annual%20Financial%20Report.pdf.coredownload.pdf)

## Questions

### Why is Panama's net so small?

Its net is essentially zero: +0.08% of one year's GDP (likely from 0.10% toward Russia to 0.59% toward Ukraine). Not certain, mostly because of how much it would have bought from Russia without the war.

### Is Panama helping Russia?

In money terms the net is +0.08% of one year's GDP (likely from 0.10% toward Russia to 0.59% toward Ukraine; essentially zero). Chance toward Ukraine: 78%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Russia kept €63m (0.08% of GDP) less than without the war. The number counts money: weapons at their money value; votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.

### How does Panama compare with its neighbours?

The net as a share of one year's GDP: Colombia +0.15%, Panama +0.08%, Costa Rica +0.06%.

### Where do the numbers for Panama come from?

15 sources back its parts, 2 of them official statistics. By part: Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here: [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0); Russia kept less from services sold here: [Services trade with Russia (tourism, transport, business services): Eurostat, OECD-WTO BaTiS, Bank of Russia](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD\_BATIS@DF\_BATIS,1.0/.RUS...S...?startPeriod=2010&endPeriod=2021); Russia kept more from war-time fuel prices: [War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/update/january/english/text.pdf). The map's panel lists every one, with its documents.

### Does Panama have sanctions on Russia?

We found no sanctions of Panama's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Panama.

## Nearby in the ranking

Essentially zero

- [Taiwan](https://warbalance.org/country/taiwan/) · +0.09% · Essentially zero · +€659m · 64%
- [Palestine](https://warbalance.org/country/palestine/) · +0.09% · Essentially zero · +€15m · 57%
- [Gabon](https://warbalance.org/country/gabon/) · +0.08% · Essentially zero · +€16m · 74%
- Panama+0.08% · Essentially zero · +€63m · 78%
- [Thailand](https://warbalance.org/country/thailand/) · +0.08% · Essentially zero · +€393m · 68%
- [Greece](https://warbalance.org/country/greece/) · +0.08% · Essentially zero · +€175m · 53%
- [Peru](https://warbalance.org/country/peru/) · +0.07% · Essentially zero · +€187m · 80%

## More about Panama

### Its parts, ranked against other countries

- [Cost of replacing Russian energy](https://warbalance.org/cost-of-replacing-russian-energy/)
- [Services bought from Russia](https://warbalance.org/services-bought-from-russia/)

### Every country, by year

- [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/)
- [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/)
- [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/)
- [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/)
- [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)
- [All topics](https://warbalance.org/topics/)

15 sources in all; the map's panel lists every one, with its documents. [Open in the map](https://warbalance.org/#PAN) · [How this is measured](https://warbalance.org/how-it-works/)

[Українська](https://warbalance.org/uk/country/panama/)[Deutsch](https://warbalance.org/de/country/panama/)[Français](https://warbalance.org/fr/country/panama/)[Polski](https://warbalance.org/pl/country/panama/)[Nederlands](https://warbalance.org/nl/country/panama/)[Español](https://warbalance.org/es/country/panama/)

Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/country/panama/