# Is the Maldives helping Russia? What the money flows show

The Maldives' support for Ukraine since 2022: <€1m (<0.01% of one year's GDP: its aid, refugee hosting, private donations and its other parts of support, net of money flowing back). Russia kept €25m (0.41% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€28m; the other parts take €3m off it). The net is 0.41% of a year's GDP toward Russia (likely 0.12% to 0.61% toward Russia; very likely · >99%).

[Open in the map →](https://warbalance.org/#MDV)

Toward Russia by

0.41% of a year's GDP since 2022

very likely · >99%

likely 0.12% to 0.61% toward Russia · €25m · ≈ 0.09%/yr

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war + raised Russia's earnings from trade = 0.41% of GDP toward Russia. Mostly toward Russia (mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere).

Chance toward Russia: >99%; 100% of the other method choices agree.

Support for Ukraine

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war; below zero by

<0.01%

<€1m

likely from 0.04% below zero to <0.01% above zero essentially zero

Russia's earnings from trade

Raised Russia's earnings from trade by

0.41%

€25m

likely 0.12% to 0.60% toward Russia very likely · >99%

Russia kept €25m (0.41% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€28m; the other parts take €3m off it).

- Russia's gain: Russia kept 0.40% of GDP more (€25m; likely 0.11% to 0.59% toward Russia)
- The Maldives' own gain from trade with Russia: The Maldives kept <0.01% of GDP more from its trade with Russia (<€1m; likely from 0.04% toward Russia to <0.01% toward Ukraine)

The two lines add up to Russia's earnings from trade; their ranges do not.

## Its story in short

- Mostly from fuel buying Orange here is mostly fuel buying, not siding with Russia. Most of this is fuel and food bought from Russia. Fuel is fungible and sold through many traders: the figure reflects what this economy bought, not a policy toward Russia or Ukraine.
- Mostly one part Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: €28m of the net's €25m.

## What makes up the number

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war; below zero by <0.01% · <€1m

Raised Russia's earnings from trade by 0.41% · €25m

| Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countriesC | −0.46% | €28m |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold hereC | +0.06% | €4m |

+ toward Ukraine, − toward Russia (in support for Ukraine, − is money it earned back or bought less from Ukraine than without the war). Letters: A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate, D rough indication.

## By year

The year with the largest net amount was 2024: −€7m.

| Year | Support for Ukraine | Trade: toward Ukraine (+) / toward Russia (−) | Net | Net since 2022 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/) | +<€1m | −€6m | −€6m | −0.09% |
| [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/) | −<€1m | −€5m | −€5m | −0.18% |
| [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/) | −<€1m | −€7m | −€7m | −0.29% |
| [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/) | −<€1m | −€3m | −€3m | −0.34% |
| [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)\* | −<€1m | −€4m | −€4m | −0.41% |

Each year's amount: + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia. \*2026: to August.

## Trade with Russia before and after

It bought €2m from Russia in 2021 and €1m in 2025. For the Maldives: <€1m paid above no-war prices, most of it in 2022, 71% of it on gas contracts. These are sales values at each year's prices; the totals count what the seller kept on them.

## Sanctions on Russia

We found no sanctions of the Maldives' own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name the Maldives. Checked 27 October 2026.

[Every country's sanctions on Russia →](https://warbalance.org/countries-with-sanctions-on-russia/#MDV)

## Indirect channels: hubs, refined oil, shipping

Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: €28m (0.46% of one year's GDP).

## Compared with its neighbours and groups

In the map's ranking: number 24 of 32 economies toward Russia, as a share of GDP.

### In its region, with the same chance and direction: the nearest net shares of GDP

| Country | Net, % of GDP |
| --- | --- |
| [Fiji](https://warbalance.org/country/fiji/) | −0.35% · −€18m · very likely · >99% |
| [Indonesia](https://warbalance.org/country/indonesia/) | −0.20% · −€2.6bn · very likely · >99% |
| [Malaysia](https://warbalance.org/country/malaysia/) | −0.64% · −€2.5bn · very likely · 99% |
| [Papua New Guinea](https://warbalance.org/country/papua-new-guinea/) | −0.08% · −€22m · very likely · >99% |

## How the number is backed

10 sources back its parts: 3 official statistics, 0 research reports, 0 press reports and 1 of this project's own estimates, plus 6 method inputs. By size, 0% of its parts are reported or measured (A–B), 100% modelled (C) and 0% rough indications (D).

### Data coverage

- Aid to Ukraine: estimated no record found: 0, with a small upper bound
- Private donations: estimated national totals or a GDP-based estimate
- Services trade with Russia: estimated Eurostat, OECD-WTO and Bank of Russia data
- Refugee hosting: reported no refugees from Ukraine recorded
- Bought from Russia: reported reported 2021-2025
- Sold to Russia: estimated partly filled: estimated, reported
- Bought from Ukraine: reported reported 2021-2025
- Sold to Ukraine: estimated partly filled: estimated, mirror, reported
- Energy switching cost: estimated modelled per fuel and month
- Company taxes in Russia: reported no companies operating in Russia found

### Sources, by part

### Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries C

- official · [Fuel made from Russian crude, measured from the buyers' own records: India's and the buyers' monthly customs (UN Comtrade), Türkiye's crude by origin (EPDK), EU refiners' Russian crude (Eurostat), US imports (EIA), Cyprus's and Malta's energy imports by consigning country (Eurostat), Australian Petroleum Statistics](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/nrg\_ti\_oil?geo=CY&geo=MT&siec=O4000&unit=THS\_T)
- official · [Fuel made from Russian crude, measured per buyer: the buyer's own customs imports of fuel by origin (UN Comtrade, DGCI&S) x the Russian share of each origin's crude (customs; CREA and KSE Institute refinery data) x crude content](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS)

### Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here C

- official · [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0)
- own estimate · [Small purchases from Russia: the no-war middle value moved up by the measured bias of 'held flat' (back-tests on rolling origins 2005-2016, CEPII BACI)](https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/cf\_models\_r47-notes.md)

- official · [Fuel made from Russian crude, measured from the buyers' own records: India's and the buyers' monthly customs (UN Comtrade), Türkiye's crude by origin (EPDK), EU refiners' Russian crude (Eurostat), US imports (EIA), Cyprus's and Malta's energy imports by consigning country (Eurostat), Australian Petroleum Statistics](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/nrg\_ti\_oil?geo=CY&geo=MT&siec=O4000&unit=THS\_T)
- official · [Fuel made from Russian crude, measured per buyer: the buyer's own customs imports of fuel by origin (UN Comtrade, DGCI&S) x the Russian share of each origin's crude (customs; CREA and KSE Institute refinery data) x crude content](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS)
- method input · [Price levels of what was traded with Russia and Ukraine (2019-2021 = 1): each buyer's own customs unit values per fuel and for other goods, benchmark indices (CREA, World Bank, Eurostat), gas contract prices; oil at the Russian port (FOB), outliers screened](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2023&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=TOTAL&flowCode=M)
- method input · [Russia's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Russian Finance Ministry, company reports, IEA, Rosstat](https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistics/fedbud/oil)
- official · [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0)
- method input · [Expected trade without the war: models back-tested on 2008, 2013 and 2016 against holding 2021 flat (UN Comtrade, World Bank WDI and commodity prices, UN voting)](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2021&partnerCode=643&flowCode=X&cmdCode=TOTAL)
- method input · [Ranges of the 2022-2026 total measured on the back-tests' cumulative errors; own bands tested on their own history for Mongolia, Yemen, Tajikistan, Moldova, Türkiye, Kenya, Peru and French Polynesia](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=498&period=2019&flowCode=M&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=99,2711,27,31,TOTAL)
- own estimate · [Small purchases from Russia: the no-war middle value moved up by the measured bias of 'held flat' (back-tests on rolling origins 2005-2016, CEPII BACI)](https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/cf\_models\_r47-notes.md)
- method input · [net-gain shares from official sector profitability (Russia: FNS/Rosstat by OKVED-2 activity; Ukraine: Derzhstat by KVED division), export duties collected and company results](https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons\_doc\_LAW\_55729/df3929054ebc0ff6d666accad51e6fedca8c75fe/)
- method input · [refugee hosting budgets, remittance mirror shares, national donation totals, Hong Kong gold 2026 and OECD ITIC freight margins](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2022/10/international-migration-outlook-2022\_140ace0e/30fe16d2-en.pdf)

## Questions

### Is the Maldives helping Russia?

In money terms the net is −0.41% of one year's GDP (likely 0.12% to 0.61% toward Russia; very likely · >99%). Chance toward Russia: >99%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Russia kept €25m (0.41% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€28m; the other parts take €3m off it). Most of this is fuel and food bought from Russia. Fuel is fungible and sold through many traders: the figure reflects what this economy bought, not a policy toward Russia or Ukraine. The number counts money: weapons at their money value; votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.

### Where do the numbers for the Maldives come from?

10 sources back its parts, 3 of them official statistics. By part: Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: [Fuel made from Russian crude, measured from the buyers' own records: India's and the buyers' monthly customs (UN Comtrade), Türkiye's crude by origin (EPDK), EU refiners' Russian crude (Eurostat), US imports (EIA), Cyprus's and Malta's energy imports by consigning country (Eurostat), Australian Petroleum Statistics](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/nrg\_ti\_oil?geo=CY&geo=MT&siec=O4000&unit=THS\_T); Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here: [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0). The map's panel lists every one, with its documents.

### Does the Maldives have sanctions on Russia?

We found no sanctions of the Maldives' own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name the Maldives.

## Nearby in the ranking

Toward Russia · number 24 of 32

- [Tonga](https://warbalance.org/country/tonga/) · −0.31% · Toward Russia · −€2m
26. [Fiji](https://warbalance.org/country/fiji/) · −0.35% · Toward Russia · −€18m
25. [Jordan](https://warbalance.org/country/jordan/) · −0.35% · Toward Russia · −€183m
24. Maldives−0.41% · Toward Russia · −€25m
23. [Iran](https://warbalance.org/country/iran/) · −0.44% · Toward Russia · −€1.9bn
- [Comoros](https://warbalance.org/country/comoros/) · −0.48% · Toward Russia · −€7m
22. [Jamaica](https://warbalance.org/country/jamaica/) · −0.49% · Toward Russia · −€94m

## More about Maldives

### Every country, by year

- [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/)
- [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/)
- [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/)
- [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/)
- [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)
- [All topics](https://warbalance.org/topics/)

10 sources in all; the map's panel lists every one, with its documents. [Open in the map](https://warbalance.org/#MDV) · [How this is measured](https://warbalance.org/how-it-works/)

[Українська](https://warbalance.org/uk/country/maldives/)[Deutsch](https://warbalance.org/de/country/maldives/)[Français](https://warbalance.org/fr/country/maldives/)[Polski](https://warbalance.org/pl/country/maldives/)[Nederlands](https://warbalance.org/nl/country/maldives/)[Español](https://warbalance.org/es/country/maldives/)

Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/country/maldives/