# Is Jordan helping Russia? What the money flows show

Jordan's support for Ukraine since 2022: −€5m (<0.01% of one year's GDP: its aid, refugee hosting, private donations and its other parts of support, net of money flowing back). Russia kept €178m (0.34% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€187m; the other parts take €9m off it). The net is 0.35% of a year's GDP toward Russia (likely 0.02% to 0.61% toward Russia; very likely · 97%).

[Open in the map →](https://warbalance.org/#JOR)

Toward Russia by

0.35% of a year's GDP since 2022

very likely · 97%

likely 0.02% to 0.61% toward Russia · €183m · ≈ 0.07%/yr

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war + raised Russia's earnings from trade = 0.35% of GDP toward Russia. Mostly toward Russia (mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere).

Chance toward Russia: 97%; 100% of the other method choices agree.

Support for Ukraine

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war; below zero by

<0.01%

€5m

likely from 0.11% below zero to 0.02% above zero essentially zero

Russia's earnings from trade

Raised Russia's earnings from trade by

0.34%

€178m

likely <0.01% to 0.58% toward Russia very likely · 96%

Russia kept €178m (0.34% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€187m; the other parts take €9m off it).

- Russia's gain: Russia kept 0.34% of GDP more (€178m; likely <0.01% to 0.58% toward Russia)
- Jordan's own gain from trade with Russia: Jordan kept <0.01% of GDP more from its trade with Russia (<€1m; likely from 0.01% toward Russia to <0.01% toward Ukraine)

The two lines add up to Russia's earnings from trade; their ranges do not.

## Its story in short

- Mostly from fuel buying Orange here is mostly fuel buying, not siding with Russia. Most of this is fuel and food bought from Russia. Fuel is fungible and sold through many traders: the figure reflects what this economy bought, not a policy toward Russia or Ukraine.
- Rough data: mostly estimates 86% of its parts, by size, are rough indications (certainty D): treat its number as a direction, not a measurement.
- Mostly one part Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: €187m of the net's €183m.

## What makes up the number

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war; below zero by <0.01% · €5m

| Ukraine kept less from sales hereC | −<0.01% | €3m |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Jordan kept more from extra sales to UkraineC | −<0.01% | €2m |

Raised Russia's earnings from trade by 0.34% · €178m

| Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countriesDown estimate | −0.36% | €187m |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold hereC | +0.03% | €18m |
| Russia kept more from war-time fuel pricesC | −0.01% | €7m |
| Its firms paid Russia more taxD | −<0.01% | €1m |
| Russia kept more from services sold hereC | −<0.01% | €1m |
| Jordan kept more from services sold to RussiaC | −<0.01% | €1m |

+ toward Ukraine, − toward Russia (in support for Ukraine, − is money it earned back or bought less from Ukraine than without the war). Letters: A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate, D rough indication.

## By year

The year with the largest net amount was 2023: −€92m.

| Year | Support for Ukraine | Trade: toward Ukraine (+) / toward Russia (−) | Net | Net since 2022 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/) | −€3m | −€19m | −€22m | −0.04% |
| [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/) | −<€1m | −€92m | −€92m | −0.22% |
| [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/) | +€1m | −€27m | −€25m | −0.27% |
| [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/) | −€2m | −€18m | −€20m | −0.30% |
| [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)\* | −€2m | −€22m | −€24m | −0.35% |

Each year's amount: + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia. \*2026: to August.

## Support for Ukraine by type

Jordan's support for Ukraine, 2022 to August 2026, split by type. The parts add up to the map's figure.

| Military aid | – |
| --- | --- |
| Private donations and purchases | −€3m |
| Money flowing back | −€2msubtracted |
| Support for Ukraine (the map's figure) | −€5m |

Quality of the split: D No military aid on record outside Kiel's tracker; this does not mean that no military aid was given.

[Military aid to Ukraine, every country →](https://warbalance.org/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/)

## Trade with Russia before and after

It bought €0.18bn from Russia in 2021 and €0.16bn in 2025 (−10%). It sold €15m to Russia in 2021 and €4m in 2025 (−75%). Before the war (2018–2021), fuel was 9.9% of what it bought from Russia. For Jordan: €7m paid above no-war prices, most of it in 2022, 43% of it on gas contracts. These are sales values at each year's prices; the totals count what the seller kept on them.

## Sanctions on Russia

We found no sanctions of Jordan's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Jordan. Checked 27 October 2026.

[Every country's sanctions on Russia →](https://warbalance.org/countries-with-sanctions-on-russia/#JOR)

## Money flowing back from the war effort

€0.14bn of aid and of Ukraine's purchases was spent in Jordan; what its firms kept of it, €2m, is taken off its support.

## Indirect channels: hubs, refined oil, shipping

Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: €0.19bn (0.36% of one year's GDP).

## Compared with its neighbours and groups

In the map's ranking: number 25 of 32 economies toward Russia, as a share of GDP.

### Neighbours by land

| Country | Net, % of GDP |
| --- | --- |
| [Palestine](https://warbalance.org/country/palestine/) | +0.09% · +€15m · essentially zero |
| [Israel](https://warbalance.org/country/israel/) | +<0.01% · +€1m · essentially zero |
| [Iraq](https://warbalance.org/country/iraq/) | −0.22% · −€0.57bn · very likely · 96% |
| [Saudi Arabia](https://warbalance.org/country/saudi-arabia/) | −0.30% · −€3.5bn · very likely · 99% |
| Jordan | −0.35% · −€0.18bn · very likely · 97% |
| [Syria](https://warbalance.org/country/syria/) | −1.0% · −€0.20bn · too close to call · 64% toward Russia |

### In its region, with the same chance and direction: the nearest net shares of GDP

| Country | Net, % of GDP |
| --- | --- |
| [Saudi Arabia](https://warbalance.org/country/saudi-arabia/) | −0.30% · −€3.5bn · very likely · 99% |
| [Iran](https://warbalance.org/country/iran/) | −0.44% · −€1.9bn · very likely · >99% |
| [Iraq](https://warbalance.org/country/iraq/) | −0.22% · −€0.57bn · very likely · 96% |
| [South Africa](https://warbalance.org/country/south-africa/) | −0.49% · −€1.8bn · very likely · >99% |

## How the number is backed

18 sources back its parts: 2 official statistics, 2 research reports, 0 press reports and 3 of this project's own estimates, plus 11 method inputs. By size, 0% of its parts are reported or measured (A–B), 14% modelled (C) and 86% rough indications (D).

### Data coverage

- Aid to Ukraine: estimated no record found: 0, with a small upper bound
- Private donations: estimated national totals or a GDP-based estimate
- Services trade with Russia: estimated Eurostat, OECD-WTO and Bank of Russia data
- Refugee hosting: reported no refugees from Ukraine recorded
- Bought from Russia: estimated partly filled: imf, reported
- Sold to Russia: estimated partner data plus an estimate of goods reaching Russia via third countries
- Bought from Ukraine: estimated partly filled: mirror, reported
- Sold to Ukraine: estimated partly filled: mirror, reported
- Energy switching cost: estimated modelled per fuel and month
- Company taxes in Russia: estimated allocated by company counts and investment

### Sources, by part

### Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries D

- own estimate · [Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it](https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA\_PCC\_Refined-Oil-Analysis\_19.02.2024\_Rev\_15.04.2024.pdf)

### Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here C

- official · [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0)

### Russia kept more from war-time fuel prices C

- own estimate · [War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/update/january/english/text.pdf)
- research · [Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT\_July-2026.pdf)

### Ukraine kept less from sales here C

- own estimate · [Purchases from Ukraine against what Ukraine could export: Ukraine's exports by product group and partner (UN Comtrade, State Customs Service of Ukraine), ECB exchange rates](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS)

- own estimate · [Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it](https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA\_PCC\_Refined-Oil-Analysis\_19.02.2024\_Rev\_15.04.2024.pdf)
- method input · [Price levels of what was traded with Russia and Ukraine (2019-2021 = 1): each buyer's own customs unit values per fuel and for other goods, benchmark indices (CREA, World Bank, Eurostat), gas contract prices; oil at the Russian port (FOB), outliers screened](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2023&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=TOTAL&flowCode=M)
- method input · [Russia's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Russian Finance Ministry, company reports, IEA, Rosstat](https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistics/fedbud/oil)
- official · [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0)
- method input · [Expected trade without the war: models back-tested on 2008, 2013 and 2016 against holding 2021 flat (UN Comtrade, World Bank WDI and commodity prices, UN voting)](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2021&partnerCode=643&flowCode=X&cmdCode=TOTAL)
- method input · [Ranges of the 2022-2026 total measured on the back-tests' cumulative errors; own bands tested on their own history for Mongolia, Yemen, Tajikistan, Moldova, Türkiye, Kenya, Peru and French Polynesia](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=498&period=2019&flowCode=M&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=99,2711,27,31,TOTAL)
- method input · [net-gain shares from official sector profitability (Russia: FNS/Rosstat by OKVED-2 activity; Ukraine: Derzhstat by KVED division), export duties collected and company results](https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons\_doc\_LAW\_55729/df3929054ebc0ff6d666accad51e6fedca8c75fe/)
- method input · [refugee hosting budgets, remittance mirror shares, national donation totals, Hong Kong gold 2026 and OECD ITIC freight margins](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2022/10/international-migration-outlook-2022\_140ace0e/30fe16d2-en.pdf)
- own estimate · [War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/update/january/english/text.pdf)
- research · [Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT\_July-2026.pdf)
- method input · [Expected trade with Ukraine without the war: rolling back-tests on Ukraine's own history and on analogue partners (IMF WEO vintages, IMF DOTS)](https://db.nomics.world/IMF/DOT)
- method input · [Ukraine's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Ukrstat, company reports, KSE Institute](https://stat.gov.ua/sites/default/files/2026-09/yearbook\_24e.pdf)
- own estimate · [Purchases from Ukraine against what Ukraine could export: Ukraine's exports by product group and partner (UN Comtrade, State Customs Service of Ukraine), ECB exchange rates](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS)
- method input · [Genuinely extra share of money earned: production ramp-ups and trade-redirection studies; value kept in the economy (the earlier rule): OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA, 2025 edition)](https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD\_TIVA\_MAINSH@DF\_MAINSH,1.1/EXGR\_DVA..BTE+C+C19+C25+C26+C28+C302T309+GTN+H50+I.W.PT\_EXGR.A?startPeriod=2018&format=csv)
- method input · [Sellers' net gain per euro of sales (taxes on production plus profit above a normal return of 5% a year above inflation after company tax, plus the country's risk premium): OECD STAN database, 2025 edition, by country and industry; Damodaran country risk premiums](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD\_STAN@DF\_STAN\_2025,1.0/A..C+C19+C25+C252+C26+C28+C30+C303+C304+H50+I+GTN+K+K65+\_T.P1+D29X39+B2A3N+B2A3G+P51C+D1.V.XDC?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2024&format=csv)
- research · [Company taxes in Russia: KSE checked against company reports (Raiffeisen, UniCredit, OTP, PepsiCo) and Bundesbank reinvested earnings](https://www.rbinternational.com/content/dam/rbi/ho/investors/results-reports/annual-reports/rbi/2025-02-25%202024%20RBI%20Annual%20Financial%20Report.pdf.coredownload.pdf)
- method input · [Pre-war trends for services (OECD-WTO BaTiS, Eurostat, Bank of Russia), foreign companies in Russia and Russian seaborne exports](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD\_BATIS@DF\_BATIS,1.0/.RUS...S...?startPeriod=2010&endPeriod=2021)
- official · [Services trade with Russia (tourism, transport, business services): Eurostat, OECD-WTO BaTiS, Bank of Russia](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD\_BATIS@DF\_BATIS,1.0/.RUS...S...?startPeriod=2010&endPeriod=2021)

## Questions

### Is Jordan helping Russia?

In money terms the net is −0.35% of one year's GDP (likely 0.02% to 0.61% toward Russia; very likely · 97%). Chance toward Russia: 97%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Russia kept €178m (0.34% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€187m; the other parts take €9m off it). Most of this is fuel and food bought from Russia. Fuel is fungible and sold through many traders: the figure reflects what this economy bought, not a policy toward Russia or Ukraine. The number counts money: weapons at their money value; votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.

### Does Jordan trade with Russia?

It bought €0.16bn from Russia in 2025 (€0.18bn in 2021), and sold €4m to Russia. What counts here is the change in what Russia kept from that trade (taxes and profit, not sales) against a world without the war: Russia kept €178m (0.34% of GDP) more than without the war, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€187m; the other parts take €9m off it).

### How does Jordan compare with its neighbours?

The net as a share of one year's GDP: Palestine +0.09%, Israel +<0.01%, Iraq −0.22%, Saudi Arabia −0.30%, Jordan −0.35%, Syria −1.0%. In the map's ranking: number 25 of 32 economies toward Russia, as a share of GDP.

### Where do the numbers for Jordan come from?

18 sources back its parts, 2 of them official statistics. By part: Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: [Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it](https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA\_PCC\_Refined-Oil-Analysis\_19.02.2024\_Rev\_15.04.2024.pdf); Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here: [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0); Russia kept more from war-time fuel prices: [War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/update/january/english/text.pdf). The map's panel lists every one, with its documents.

### Does Jordan have sanctions on Russia?

We found no sanctions of Jordan's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Jordan.

## Nearby in the ranking

Toward Russia · number 25 of 32

27. [Saudi Arabia](https://warbalance.org/country/saudi-arabia/) · −0.30% · Toward Russia · −€3.5bn
- [Tonga](https://warbalance.org/country/tonga/) · −0.31% · Toward Russia · −€2m
26. [Fiji](https://warbalance.org/country/fiji/) · −0.35% · Toward Russia · −€18m
25. Jordan−0.35% · Toward Russia · −€183m
24. [Maldives](https://warbalance.org/country/maldives/) · −0.41% · Toward Russia · −€25m
23. [Iran](https://warbalance.org/country/iran/) · −0.44% · Toward Russia · −€1.9bn
- [Comoros](https://warbalance.org/country/comoros/) · −0.48% · Toward Russia · −€7m

## More about Jordan

### Its parts, ranked against other countries

- [Extra sales to Ukraine](https://warbalance.org/sales-to-ukraine/)

### Every country, by year

- [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/)
- [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/)
- [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/)
- [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/)
- [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)
- [All topics](https://warbalance.org/topics/)

18 sources in all; the map's panel lists every one, with its documents. [Open in the map](https://warbalance.org/#JOR) · [How this is measured](https://warbalance.org/how-it-works/)

[Українська](https://warbalance.org/uk/country/jordan/)[Deutsch](https://warbalance.org/de/country/jordan/)[Français](https://warbalance.org/fr/country/jordan/)[Polski](https://warbalance.org/pl/country/jordan/)[Nederlands](https://warbalance.org/nl/country/jordan/)[Español](https://warbalance.org/es/country/jordan/)

Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/country/jordan/