# Is Greenland helping Ukraine or Russia? Leaning toward Ukraine

Greenland's support for Ukraine since 2022: <€1m (<0.01% of one year's GDP: its aid, refugee hosting, private donations and its other parts of support, net of money flowing back). Russia kept €46m (1.5% of GDP) less than without the war, mostly less tax paid in Russia by companies (€29m of €46m). The net is 1.5% of a year's GDP toward Ukraine (likely from 3.0% toward Russia to 4.4% toward Ukraine; likely toward Ukraine · 67%).

[Open in the map →](https://warbalance.org/#GRL)

Leaning toward Ukraine by

1.5% of a year's GDP since 2022

likely toward Ukraine · 67%

likely from 3.0% toward Russia to 4.4% toward Ukraine · €46m · ≈ 0.32%/yr

Earned more from Ukraine's war effort than it gave + cut Russia's earnings from trade = 1.5% of GDP toward Ukraine. Mostly less kept by Russia from trade.

Chance toward Ukraine: 67%; 100% of the other method choices agree.

Support for Ukraine

Earned more from Ukraine's war effort than it gave, by

<0.01%

<€1m

likely from 0.04% below zero to <0.01% above zero essentially zero

Russia's earnings from trade

Probably cut Russia's earnings from trade by

1.5%

€46m

likely from 3.0% toward Russia to 4.4% toward Ukraine likely toward Ukraine · 67%

Russia kept €46m (1.5% of GDP) less than without the war, mostly less tax paid in Russia by companies (€29m of €46m).

- Russia's gain: Russia kept 0.93% of GDP less (€29m; likely from 1.4% toward Russia to 3.8% toward Ukraine)
- Greenland's own gain from trade with Russia: Greenland kept 0.57% of GDP less from its trade with Russia (€18m; likely from 3.3% toward Russia to 1.2% toward Ukraine)

The two lines add up to Russia's earnings from trade; their ranges do not.

## Its story in short

- Rough data: mostly estimates 100% of its parts, by size, are rough indications (certainty D): treat its number as a direction, not a measurement.
- Small economy A small economy (GDP €3.1bn): small sums move its % a lot. Not ranked, and drawn in the lightest shade only.
- Two different things added The net adds two different things: help given to Ukraine and the change in what Russia kept from trade. Much of what one country stopped buying, Russia sold to others.

## What decides this number

Chance toward Ukraine: 67%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Not certain, mostly because of the uncertain size of one part: Greenland's companies made less profit in Russia.

## What makes up the number

Earned more from Ukraine's war effort than it gave, by <0.01% · <€1m

Probably cut Russia's earnings from trade by 1.5% · €46m

| Its firms paid Russia less taxD | +0.93% | €29m |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Greenland's companies made less profit in RussiaD | +0.57% | €18m |

+ toward Ukraine, − toward Russia (in support for Ukraine, − is money it earned back or bought less from Ukraine than without the war). Letters: A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate, D rough indication.

## By year

The year with the largest net amount was 2025: +€15m.

| Year | Support for Ukraine | Trade: toward Ukraine (+) / toward Russia (−) | Net | Net since 2022 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/) | €0 | +€5m | +€5m | +0.15% |
| [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/) | −<€1m | +€9m | +€9m | +0.44% |
| [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/) | −<€1m | +€8m | +€8m | +0.70% |
| [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/) | −<€1m | +€15m | +€15m | +1.2% |
| [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)\* | −<€1m | +€10m | +€10m | +1.5% |

Each year's amount: + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia. \*2026: to August.

## Trade with Russia before and after

It bought <€1m from Russia in 2021 and <€1m in 2025. It sold €66m to Russia in 2021 and €20m in 2025 (−70%). These are sales values at each year's prices; the totals count what the seller kept on them.

## Sanctions on Russia

Greenland is a territory of Denmark. We did not check whether the sanctions of Denmark on Russia extend to it. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Greenland itself; it names Denmark. Checked 27 October 2026.

[Every country's sanctions on Russia →](https://warbalance.org/countries-with-sanctions-on-russia/#GRL)

## How the number is backed

3 sources back its parts: 1 official statistics, 1 research reports, 0 press reports and 0 of this project's own estimates, plus 1 method inputs. By size, 0% of its parts are reported or measured (A–B), 0% modelled (C) and 100% rough indications (D). No data: Purchases from Ukraine · Russian oil bought via other countries · Fuel and goods bought from Russia · Sales to Russia · War-time fuel prices. There is no observation of its own for the war years, so these count as zero. Why

### Data coverage

- Aid to Ukraine: estimated no record found: 0, with a small upper bound
- Private donations: estimated national totals or a GDP-based estimate
- Services trade with Russia: missing no data and no estimate; counted as zero
- Refugee hosting: reported no refugees from Ukraine recorded
- Bought from Russia: estimated partly filled: imf, mirror
- Sold to Russia: estimated partner data plus an estimate of goods reaching Russia via third countries
- Bought from Ukraine: estimated partly filled: estimated, imf
- Sold to Ukraine: estimated partly filled: imf, mirror
- Energy switching cost: estimated modelled per fuel and month
- Company taxes in Russia: estimated allocated by company counts and investment

### Sources, by part

### Its firms paid Russia less tax D

- research · [Company taxes in Russia: KSE checked against company reports (Raiffeisen, UniCredit, OTP, PepsiCo) and Bundesbank reinvested earnings](https://www.rbinternational.com/content/dam/rbi/ho/investors/results-reports/annual-reports/rbi/2025-02-25%202024%20RBI%20Annual%20Financial%20Report.pdf.coredownload.pdf)

### Greenland's companies made less profit in Russia D

- official · [Profits of foreign companies in Russia and foreign partners' income from Russian oil and gas: KSE Institute / B4Ukraine #LeaveRussia, OECD direct-investment income by partner, company reports](https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/ENG\_What-are-the-financial-results-of-foreign-business-in-Russia-in-2023\_final.pdf)

- research · [Company taxes in Russia: KSE checked against company reports (Raiffeisen, UniCredit, OTP, PepsiCo) and Bundesbank reinvested earnings](https://www.rbinternational.com/content/dam/rbi/ho/investors/results-reports/annual-reports/rbi/2025-02-25%202024%20RBI%20Annual%20Financial%20Report.pdf.coredownload.pdf)
- method input · [Pre-war trends for services (OECD-WTO BaTiS, Eurostat, Bank of Russia), foreign companies in Russia and Russian seaborne exports](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD\_BATIS@DF\_BATIS,1.0/.RUS...S...?startPeriod=2010&endPeriod=2021)
- official · [Profits of foreign companies in Russia and foreign partners' income from Russian oil and gas: KSE Institute / B4Ukraine #LeaveRussia, OECD direct-investment income by partner, company reports](https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/ENG\_What-are-the-financial-results-of-foreign-business-in-Russia-in-2023\_final.pdf)

## Questions

### Is Greenland helping Russia?

In money terms the net is +1.5% of one year's GDP (likely from 3.0% toward Russia to 4.4% toward Ukraine; likely toward Ukraine · 67%). Chance toward Ukraine: 67%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Russia kept €46m (1.5% of GDP) less than without the war, mostly less tax paid in Russia by companies (€29m of €46m). The number counts money: weapons at their money value; votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.

### Where do the numbers for Greenland come from?

3 sources back its parts, 1 of them official statistics. By part: Its firms paid Russia less tax: [Company taxes in Russia: KSE checked against company reports (Raiffeisen, UniCredit, OTP, PepsiCo) and Bundesbank reinvested earnings](https://www.rbinternational.com/content/dam/rbi/ho/investors/results-reports/annual-reports/rbi/2025-02-25%202024%20RBI%20Annual%20Financial%20Report.pdf.coredownload.pdf); Greenland's companies made less profit in Russia: [Profits of foreign companies in Russia and foreign partners' income from Russian oil and gas: KSE Institute / B4Ukraine #LeaveRussia, OECD direct-investment income by partner, company reports](https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/ENG\_What-are-the-financial-results-of-foreign-business-in-Russia-in-2023\_final.pdf). The map's panel lists every one, with its documents.

### Does Greenland have sanctions on Russia?

Greenland is a territory of Denmark. We did not check whether the sanctions of Denmark on Russia extend to it. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Greenland itself; it names Denmark.

## Nearby in the ranking

Leaning toward Ukraine

- [Brunei](https://warbalance.org/country/brunei/) · +3.1% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€453m · 85%
- [Lebanon](https://warbalance.org/country/lebanon/) · +2.8% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€578m · 84%
- [Turkmenistan](https://warbalance.org/country/turkmenistan/) · +1.5% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€574m · 83%
- Greenland+1.5% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€46m · 67%
- [Kosovo](https://warbalance.org/country/kosovo/) · +1.1% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€106m · 91%
- [Cameroon](https://warbalance.org/country/cameroon/) · +0.99% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€452m · 94%
- [Slovenia](https://warbalance.org/country/slovenia/) · +0.66% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€417m · 88%

## More about Greenland

### Its parts, ranked against other countries

- [Company taxes paid in Russia](https://warbalance.org/company-taxes-paid-in-russia/)
- [Company profits in Russia](https://warbalance.org/company-profits-in-russia/)

### Every country, by year

- [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/)
- [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/)
- [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/)
- [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/)
- [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)
- [All topics](https://warbalance.org/topics/)

3 sources in all; the map's panel lists every one, with its documents. [Open in the map](https://warbalance.org/#GRL) · [How this is measured](https://warbalance.org/how-it-works/)

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Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/country/greenland/