# Is Bolivia helping Ukraine or Russia? Leaning toward Ukraine

Bolivia's support for Ukraine since 2022: −€1m (<0.01% of one year's GDP: its aid, refugee hosting, private donations and its other parts of support, net of money flowing back). Russia kept €218m (0.44% of GDP) less than without the war. The net is 0.44% of a year's GDP toward Ukraine (likely from 0.31% toward Russia to 3.0% toward Ukraine; likely toward Ukraine · 82%).

[Open in the map →](https://warbalance.org/#BOL)

Leaning toward Ukraine by

0.44% of a year's GDP since 2022

likely toward Ukraine · 82%

likely from 0.31% toward Russia to 3.0% toward Ukraine · €217m · ≈ 0.09%/yr

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war + cut Russia's earnings from trade = 0.44% of GDP toward Ukraine. Mostly less kept by Russia from trade.

Chance toward Ukraine: 82%; 100% of the other method choices agree.

Support for Ukraine

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war; below zero by

<0.01%

€1m

about 0 essentially zero

Russia's earnings from trade

Probably cut Russia's earnings from trade by

0.44%

€218m

likely from 0.31% toward Russia to 3.0% toward Ukraine likely toward Ukraine · 82%

Russia kept €218m (0.44% of GDP) less than without the war.

- Russia's gain: Russia kept 0.44% of GDP less (€218m; likely from 0.31% toward Russia to 3.0% toward Ukraine)
- Bolivia's own gain from trade with Russia: Bolivia kept <0.01% of GDP more from its trade with Russia (<€1m; about 0)

The two lines add up to Russia's earnings from trade; their ranges do not.

## Its story in short

- Mostly one part Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here: €236m of the net's €217m.
- Two different things added The net adds two different things: help given to Ukraine and the change in what Russia kept from trade. Much of what one country stopped buying, Russia sold to others.

## What decides this number

Chance toward Ukraine: 82%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Not certain, mostly because of how much it would have bought from Russia without the war. What decides it: if Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here were 93% smaller, the direction would flip.

## What makes up the number

Bought less from Ukraine than without the war; below zero by <0.01% · €1m

| Ukraine kept less from sales hereC | −<0.01% | €1m |
| --- | --- | --- |

Probably cut Russia's earnings from trade by 0.44% · €218m

| Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold hereC | +0.48% | €236m |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Russia kept more from war-time fuel pricesC | −0.04% | €18m |

+ toward Ukraine, − toward Russia (in support for Ukraine, − is money it earned back or bought less from Ukraine than without the war). Letters: A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate, D rough indication.

## By year

The year with the largest net amount was 2024: +€58m. The yearly amounts are small against the range of the total, so their side from one year to the next is not a finding.

| Year | Support for Ukraine | Trade: toward Ukraine (+) / toward Russia (−) | Net | Net since 2022 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/) | −<€1m | +€39m | +€38m | +0.08% |
| [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/) | −<€1m | +€50m | +€50m | +0.18% |
| [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/) | −<€1m | +€58m | +€58m | +0.30% |
| [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/) | −<€1m | −€2m | −€3m | +0.29% |
| [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)\* | −<€1m | +€74m | +€74m | +0.44% |

Each year's amount: + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia. \*2026: to August.

## Support for Ukraine by type

Bolivia's support for Ukraine, 2022 to August 2026, split by type. The parts add up to the map's figure.

| Military aid | – |
| --- | --- |
| Private donations and purchases | −€1m |
| Support for Ukraine (the map's figure) | −€1m |

Quality of the split: D No military aid on record outside Kiel's tracker; this does not mean that no military aid was given.

[Military aid to Ukraine, every country →](https://warbalance.org/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/)

## Trade with Russia before and after

It bought €53m from Russia in 2021 and €0.18bn in 2025 (+235%). It sold €11m to Russia in 2021 and €1m in 2025 (−87%). For Bolivia: €18m paid above no-war prices, most of it in 2022, 71% of it on gas contracts. These are sales values at each year's prices; the totals count what the seller kept on them.

## Sanctions on Russia

We found no sanctions of Bolivia's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Bolivia. Checked 27 October 2026.

[Every country's sanctions on Russia →](https://warbalance.org/countries-with-sanctions-on-russia/#BOL)

## The cost of switching away from Russian energy

Russian oil bought at a war-time discount saved it about €10m. This is not in the totals: shown for information.

## Compared with its neighbours and groups

Its direction is leaning toward Ukraine, so the map's ranking gives it no number.

### Neighbours by land

| Country | Net, % of GDP |
| --- | --- |
| Bolivia | +0.44% · +€0.22bn · likely toward Ukraine · 82% |
| [Peru](https://warbalance.org/country/peru/) | +0.07% · +€0.19bn · essentially zero |
| [Argentina](https://warbalance.org/country/argentina/) | +0.05% · +€0.31bn · essentially zero |
| [Chile](https://warbalance.org/country/chile/) | +0.04% · +€0.11bn · very likely · 99% |
| [Paraguay](https://warbalance.org/country/paraguay/) | −0.12% · −€50m · too close to call · 55% toward Russia |
| [Brazil](https://warbalance.org/country/brazil/) | −0.51% · −€10.1bn · very likely · >99% |

### In its region, with the same chance and direction: the nearest net shares of GDP

| Country | Net, % of GDP |
| --- | --- |
| [Cuba](https://warbalance.org/country/cuba/) | +0.37% · +€78m · likely toward Ukraine · 65% |
| [Ecuador](https://warbalance.org/country/ecuador/) | +0.37% · +€0.41bn · likely toward Ukraine · 89% |
| [Honduras](https://warbalance.org/country/honduras/) | +0.24% · +€76m · likely toward Ukraine · 74% |
| [Colombia](https://warbalance.org/country/colombia/) | +0.15% · +€0.52bn · likely toward Ukraine · 95% |

## How the number is backed

13 sources back its parts: 1 official statistics, 1 research reports, 0 press reports and 3 of this project's own estimates, plus 8 method inputs. By size, 0% of its parts are reported or measured (A–B), 100% modelled (C) and 0% rough indications (D).

### Data coverage

- Aid to Ukraine: estimated no record found: 0, with a small upper bound
- Private donations: estimated national totals or a GDP-based estimate
- Services trade with Russia: estimated Eurostat, OECD-WTO and Bank of Russia data
- Refugee hosting: reported no refugees from Ukraine recorded
- Bought from Russia: reported reported 2021-2025
- Sold to Russia: estimated partner data plus an estimate of goods reaching Russia via third countries
- Bought from Ukraine: reported reported 2021-2025
- Sold to Ukraine: estimated partly filled: mirror, reported
- Energy switching cost: estimated modelled per fuel and month
- Company taxes in Russia: estimated allocated by company counts and investment

### Sources, by part

### Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here C

- official · [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0)
- own estimate · [Small purchases from Russia: the no-war middle value moved up by the measured bias of 'held flat' (back-tests on rolling origins 2005-2016, CEPII BACI)](https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/cf\_models\_r47-notes.md)

### Russia kept more from war-time fuel prices C

- own estimate · [War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/update/january/english/text.pdf)
- research · [Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT\_July-2026.pdf)

### Ukraine kept less from sales here C

- own estimate · [Purchases from Ukraine against what Ukraine could export: Ukraine's exports by product group and partner (UN Comtrade, State Customs Service of Ukraine), ECB exchange rates](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS)

- official · [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0)
- method input · [Price levels of what was traded with Russia and Ukraine (2019-2021 = 1): each buyer's own customs unit values per fuel and for other goods, benchmark indices (CREA, World Bank, Eurostat), gas contract prices; oil at the Russian port (FOB), outliers screened](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2023&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=TOTAL&flowCode=M)
- method input · [Expected trade without the war: models back-tested on 2008, 2013 and 2016 against holding 2021 flat (UN Comtrade, World Bank WDI and commodity prices, UN voting)](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2021&partnerCode=643&flowCode=X&cmdCode=TOTAL)
- method input · [Ranges of the 2022-2026 total measured on the back-tests' cumulative errors; own bands tested on their own history for Mongolia, Yemen, Tajikistan, Moldova, Türkiye, Kenya, Peru and French Polynesia](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=498&period=2019&flowCode=M&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=99,2711,27,31,TOTAL)
- method input · [Russia's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Russian Finance Ministry, company reports, IEA, Rosstat](https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistics/fedbud/oil)
- own estimate · [Small purchases from Russia: the no-war middle value moved up by the measured bias of 'held flat' (back-tests on rolling origins 2005-2016, CEPII BACI)](https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/cf\_models\_r47-notes.md)
- method input · [net-gain shares from official sector profitability (Russia: FNS/Rosstat by OKVED-2 activity; Ukraine: Derzhstat by KVED division), export duties collected and company results](https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons\_doc\_LAW\_55729/df3929054ebc0ff6d666accad51e6fedca8c75fe/)
- method input · [refugee hosting budgets, remittance mirror shares, national donation totals, Hong Kong gold 2026 and OECD ITIC freight margins](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2022/10/international-migration-outlook-2022\_140ace0e/30fe16d2-en.pdf)
- own estimate · [War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/update/january/english/text.pdf)
- research · [Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT\_July-2026.pdf)
- method input · [Expected trade with Ukraine without the war: rolling back-tests on Ukraine's own history and on analogue partners (IMF WEO vintages, IMF DOTS)](https://db.nomics.world/IMF/DOT)
- method input · [Ukraine's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Ukrstat, company reports, KSE Institute](https://stat.gov.ua/sites/default/files/2026-09/yearbook\_24e.pdf)
- own estimate · [Purchases from Ukraine against what Ukraine could export: Ukraine's exports by product group and partner (UN Comtrade, State Customs Service of Ukraine), ECB exchange rates](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS)

## Questions

### What decides Bolivia's number?

Chance toward Ukraine: 82%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Not certain, mostly because of how much it would have bought from Russia without the war. What decides it: if Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here were 93% smaller, the direction would flip.

### Is Bolivia helping Russia?

In money terms the net is +0.44% of one year's GDP (likely from 0.31% toward Russia to 3.0% toward Ukraine; likely toward Ukraine · 82%). Chance toward Ukraine: 82%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Russia kept €218m (0.44% of GDP) less than without the war. The number counts money: weapons at their money value; votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.

### Does Bolivia trade with Russia?

It bought €0.18bn from Russia in 2025 (€53m in 2021), and sold €1m to Russia. What counts here is the change in what Russia kept from that trade (taxes and profit, not sales) against a world without the war: Russia kept €218m (0.44% of GDP) less than without the war.

### How does Bolivia compare with its neighbours?

The net as a share of one year's GDP: Bolivia +0.44%, Peru +0.07%, Argentina +0.05%, Chile +0.04%, Paraguay −0.12%, Brazil −0.51%.

### Where do the numbers for Bolivia come from?

13 sources back its parts, 1 of them official statistics. By part: Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here: [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0); Russia kept more from war-time fuel prices: [War-time price windfall on Russian fuel: payments minus the same volume at the prices a no-war market expected (pre-invasion forecasts and futures: IMF, World Bank, EIA, ECB, ICE)](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2022/update/january/english/text.pdf); Ukraine kept less from sales here: [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0). The map's panel lists every one, with its documents.

### Does Bolivia have sanctions on Russia?

We found no sanctions of Bolivia's own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Bolivia.

## Nearby in the ranking

Leaning toward Ukraine

- [Bosnia and Herzegovina](https://warbalance.org/country/bosnia-and-herzegovina/) · +0.56% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€142m · 85%
- [Rwanda](https://warbalance.org/country/rwanda/) · +0.55% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€74m · 90%
- [Austria](https://warbalance.org/country/austria/) · +0.45% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€2.1bn · 68%
- Bolivia+0.44% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€217m · 82%
- [Cuba](https://warbalance.org/country/cuba/) · +0.37% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€78m · 65%
- [Ecuador](https://warbalance.org/country/ecuador/) · +0.37% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€411m · 89%
- [Montenegro](https://warbalance.org/country/montenegro/) · +0.37% · Leaning toward Ukraine · +€25m · 91%

## More about Bolivia

### Its parts, ranked against other countries

- [Purchases from Ukraine vs no war](https://warbalance.org/imports-from-ukraine/)

### Every country, by year

- [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/)
- [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/)
- [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/)
- [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/)
- [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)
- [All topics](https://warbalance.org/topics/)

13 sources in all; the map's panel lists every one, with its documents. [Open in the map](https://warbalance.org/#BOL) · [How this is measured](https://warbalance.org/how-it-works/)

[Українська](https://warbalance.org/uk/country/bolivia/)[Deutsch](https://warbalance.org/de/country/bolivia/)[Français](https://warbalance.org/fr/country/bolivia/)[Polski](https://warbalance.org/pl/country/bolivia/)[Nederlands](https://warbalance.org/nl/country/bolivia/)[Español](https://warbalance.org/es/country/bolivia/)

Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/country/bolivia/