# Is Barbados helping Russia? What the money flows show

Barbados' support for Ukraine since 2022: <€1m (<0.01% of one year's GDP: its aid, refugee hosting, private donations and its other parts of support, net of money flowing back). Barbados moved €6m (0.09% of GDP) more toward Russia than without the war (Russia kept more, and Barbados kept more from selling to Russia, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€6m of €6m)). The net is 0.09% of a year's GDP toward Russia (likely 0.05% to 0.17% toward Russia; very likely · >99%).

[Open in the map →](https://warbalance.org/#BRB)

Toward Russia by

0.09% of a year's GDP since 2022

very likely · >99%

likely 0.05% to 0.17% toward Russia · €6m · ≈ 0.02%/yr

Earned more from Ukraine's war effort than it gave + raised Russia's earnings from trade = 0.09% of GDP toward Russia. Mostly toward Russia.

Chance toward Russia: >99%; 100% of the other method choices agree.

Support for Ukraine

Earned more from Ukraine's war effort than it gave, by

<0.01%

<€1m

about 0 essentially zero

Russia's earnings from trade

Raised Russia's earnings from trade by

0.09%

€6m

likely 0.05% to 0.17% toward Russia very likely · >99%

Barbados moved €6m (0.09% of GDP) more toward Russia than without the war (Russia kept more, and Barbados kept more from selling to Russia, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€6m of €6m)).

- Russia's gain: Russia kept 0.08% of GDP more (€5m; likely 0.04% to 0.14% toward Russia)
- Barbados' own gain from trade with Russia: Barbados kept 0.02% of GDP more from its trade with Russia (€1m; likely <0.01% to 0.06% toward Russia)

The two lines add up to Russia's earnings from trade; their ranges do not.

## Its story in short

- Russian oil at a war-time discount After the sanctions, Russia sold it oil below world prices: about €17m over 2022–2026. What Russia kept on that oil is counted at those lower prices, in the part on fuel and goods it sold here: the sanctions working on prices, not a choice to buy less.
- Mostly from fuel buying Orange here is mostly fuel buying, not siding with Russia.
- Rough data: mostly estimates 91% of its parts, by size, are rough indications (certainty D): treat its number as a direction, not a measurement.

## What makes up the number

Earned more from Ukraine's war effort than it gave, by <0.01% · <€1m

Raised Russia's earnings from trade by 0.09% · €6m

| Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countriesDown estimate | −0.09% | €6m |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Barbados kept more from shipping Russian oilD | −0.02% | €1m |
| Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold hereC | +<0.01% | €1m |

+ toward Ukraine, − toward Russia (in support for Ukraine, − is money it earned back or bought less from Ukraine than without the war). Letters: A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate, D rough indication.

## By year

The year with the largest net amount was 2024: −€2m.

| Year | Support for Ukraine | Trade: toward Ukraine (+) / toward Russia (−) | Net | Net since 2022 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/) | +<€1m | −<€1m | −<€1m | −<0.01% |
| [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/) | −<€1m | −€1m | −€1m | −0.02% |
| [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/) | −<€1m | −€2m | −€2m | −0.05% |
| [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/) | +<€1m | −€2m | −€2m | −0.07% |
| [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)\* | +<€1m | −€1m | −€1m | −0.09% |

Each year's amount: + toward Ukraine, − toward Russia. \*2026: to August.

## Trade with Russia before and after

It bought <€1m from Russia in 2021 and €0m in 2025. For Barbados: <€1m paid above no-war prices, most of it in 2022, 71% of it on gas contracts. These are sales values at each year's prices; the totals count what the seller kept on them.

## Sanctions on Russia

We found no sanctions of Barbados' own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Barbados. Checked 27 October 2026.

[Every country's sanctions on Russia →](https://warbalance.org/countries-with-sanctions-on-russia/#BRB)

## The cost of switching away from Russian energy

Russian oil bought at a war-time discount saved it about €17m. This is not in the totals: shown for information.

## Compared with its neighbours and groups

In the map's ranking: number 31 of 32 economies toward Russia, as a share of GDP.

### In its region, with the same chance and direction: the nearest net shares of GDP

| Country | Net, % of GDP |
| --- | --- |
| [Jamaica](https://warbalance.org/country/jamaica/) | −0.49% · −€94m · very likely · >99% |
| [Brazil](https://warbalance.org/country/brazil/) | −0.51% · −€10.1bn · very likely · >99% |

## How the number is backed

13 sources back its parts: 1 official statistics, 1 research reports, 0 press reports and 2 of this project's own estimates, plus 9 method inputs. By size, 0% of its parts are reported or measured (A–B), 7% modelled (C) and 93% rough indications (D).

### Data coverage

- Aid to Ukraine: estimated no record found: 0, with a small upper bound
- Private donations: estimated national totals or a GDP-based estimate
- Services trade with Russia: estimated includes shipping and insuring Russian oil (estimate)
- Refugee hosting: reported no refugees from Ukraine recorded
- Bought from Russia: estimated partly filled: estimated, reported
- Sold to Russia: estimated partly filled: estimated, reported
- Bought from Ukraine: reported reported 2021-2025
- Sold to Ukraine: estimated partly filled: mirror, reported
- Energy switching cost: estimated modelled per fuel and month
- Company taxes in Russia: reported no companies operating in Russia found

### Sources, by part

### Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries D

- own estimate · [Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it](https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA\_PCC\_Refined-Oil-Analysis\_19.02.2024\_Rev\_15.04.2024.pdf)

### Barbados kept more from shipping Russian oil D

- research · [Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT\_July-2026.pdf)

### Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here C

- official · [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0)
- own estimate · [Small purchases from Russia: the no-war middle value moved up by the measured bias of 'held flat' (back-tests on rolling origins 2005-2016, CEPII BACI)](https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/cf\_models\_r47-notes.md)

- own estimate · [Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it](https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA\_PCC\_Refined-Oil-Analysis\_19.02.2024\_Rev\_15.04.2024.pdf)
- method input · [Price levels of what was traded with Russia and Ukraine (2019-2021 = 1): each buyer's own customs unit values per fuel and for other goods, benchmark indices (CREA, World Bank, Eurostat), gas contract prices; oil at the Russian port (FOB), outliers screened](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2023&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=TOTAL&flowCode=M)
- method input · [Russia's net gain per euro of exports (taxes plus profit above a normal return): Russian Finance Ministry, company reports, IEA, Rosstat](https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistics/fedbud/oil)
- research · [Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT\_July-2026.pdf)
- method input · [Pre-war trends for services (OECD-WTO BaTiS, Eurostat, Bank of Russia), foreign companies in Russia and Russian seaborne exports](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD\_BATIS@DF\_BATIS,1.0/.RUS...S...?startPeriod=2010&endPeriod=2021)
- method input · [Genuinely extra share of money earned: production ramp-ups and trade-redirection studies; value kept in the economy (the earlier rule): OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA, 2025 edition)](https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD\_TIVA\_MAINSH@DF\_MAINSH,1.1/EXGR\_DVA..BTE+C+C19+C25+C26+C28+C302T309+GTN+H50+I.W.PT\_EXGR.A?startPeriod=2018&format=csv)
- method input · [Sellers' net gain per euro of sales (taxes on production plus profit above a normal return of 5% a year above inflation after company tax, plus the country's risk premium): OECD STAN database, 2025 edition, by country and industry; Damodaran country risk premiums](https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.PIE,DSD\_STAN@DF\_STAN\_2025,1.0/A..C+C19+C25+C252+C26+C28+C30+C303+C304+H50+I+GTN+K+K65+\_T.P1+D29X39+B2A3N+B2A3G+P51C+D1.V.XDC?startPeriod=2017&endPeriod=2024&format=csv)
- official · [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0)
- method input · [Expected trade without the war: models back-tested on 2008, 2013 and 2016 against holding 2021 flat (UN Comtrade, World Bank WDI and commodity prices, UN voting)](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2021&partnerCode=643&flowCode=X&cmdCode=TOTAL)
- method input · [Ranges of the 2022-2026 total measured on the back-tests' cumulative errors; own bands tested on their own history for Mongolia, Yemen, Tajikistan, Moldova, Türkiye, Kenya, Peru and French Polynesia](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?reporterCode=498&period=2019&flowCode=M&partnerCode=643&cmdCode=99,2711,27,31,TOTAL)
- own estimate · [Small purchases from Russia: the no-war middle value moved up by the measured bias of 'held flat' (back-tests on rolling origins 2005-2016, CEPII BACI)](https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance/blob/main/research/2026-10/gaps/cf\_models\_r47-notes.md)
- method input · [net-gain shares from official sector profitability (Russia: FNS/Rosstat by OKVED-2 activity; Ukraine: Derzhstat by KVED division), export duties collected and company results](https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons\_doc\_LAW\_55729/df3929054ebc0ff6d666accad51e6fedca8c75fe/)
- method input · [refugee hosting budgets, remittance mirror shares, national donation totals, Hong Kong gold 2026 and OECD ITIC freight margins](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2022/10/international-migration-outlook-2022\_140ace0e/30fe16d2-en.pdf)

## Questions

### Is Barbados helping Russia?

In money terms the net is −0.09% of one year's GDP (likely 0.05% to 0.17% toward Russia; very likely · >99%). Chance toward Russia: >99%; 100% of the other method choices agree. Barbados moved €6m (0.09% of GDP) more toward Russia than without the war (Russia kept more, and Barbados kept more from selling to Russia, mostly Russian crude in fuel bought from refiners elsewhere (€6m of €6m)). The number counts money: weapons at their money value; votes, diplomacy and intent are not in it.

### Where do the numbers for Barbados come from?

13 sources back its parts, 1 of them official statistics. By part: Russia kept more from its oil bought via other countries: [Laundered oil: fuel made from Russian crude, assigned to the final buyer (trading hubs pass on what they resell), valued at the Russian crude inside it](https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA\_PCC\_Refined-Oil-Analysis\_19.02.2024\_Rev\_15.04.2024.pdf); Barbados kept more from shipping Russian oil: [Tanker shipping, insurance and ship sales serving Russian oil and LNG exports: CREA, KSE Institute, S&P Global, Windward, press reports](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ROT\_July-2026.pdf); Russia kept less from fuel and goods sold here: [UN Comtrade, IMF trade statistics and Eurostat: goods trade with Russia and Ukraine](https://comtradeapi.un.org/public/v1/preview/C/A/HS?period=2024&partnerCode=643&flowCode=M&cmdCode=TOTAL&customsCode=C00&motCode=0&partner2Code=0). The map's panel lists every one, with its documents.

### Does Barbados have sanctions on Russia?

We found no sanctions of Barbados' own against Russia (checked 27 October 2026). This says nothing about whether firms there follow other countries' sanctions. Russia's list of “unfriendly” states does not name Barbados.

## Nearby in the ranking

Toward Russia · number 31 of 32

- [Central African Republic](https://warbalance.org/country/central-african-republic/) · −4.8% · Leaning toward Russia · −€115m · 92%
- [Mongolia](https://warbalance.org/country/mongolia/) · −6.4% · Leaning toward Russia · −€1.2bn · 77%
32. [Papua New Guinea](https://warbalance.org/country/papua-new-guinea/) · −0.08% · Toward Russia · −€22m
31. Barbados−0.09% · Toward Russia · −€6m
- [Kiribati](https://warbalance.org/country/kiribati/) · −0.12% · Toward Russia · −<€1m
30. [Sierra Leone](https://warbalance.org/country/sierra-leone/) · −0.14% · Toward Russia · −€9m
- [Nauru](https://warbalance.org/country/nauru/) · −0.19% · Toward Russia · −<€1m

## More about Barbados

### Every country, by year

- [2022](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2022/)
- [2023](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2023/)
- [2024](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2024/)
- [2025](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2025/)
- [2026](https://warbalance.org/ukraine-aid-2026/)
- [All topics](https://warbalance.org/topics/)

13 sources in all; the map's panel lists every one, with its documents. [Open in the map](https://warbalance.org/#BRB) · [How this is measured](https://warbalance.org/how-it-works/)

[Українська](https://warbalance.org/uk/country/barbados/)[Deutsch](https://warbalance.org/de/country/barbados/)[Français](https://warbalance.org/fr/country/barbados/)[Polski](https://warbalance.org/pl/country/barbados/)[Nederlands](https://warbalance.org/nl/country/barbados/)[Español](https://warbalance.org/es/country/barbados/)

Cite as: War Balance, figures to August 2026, https://warbalance.org/country/barbados/